Fezzik's RSW selections for 2012/13 seasom

[QUOTE=Fezzik;54387]CAn't speak for Bob's Projection methods, but I fully expect to win 20 units, (of course, Atl division, Chic division, etc) .....Det UN 9 Bob has +.5 units, I've already circled it as a winner +4, etc. ......Cin is 3-3, off their creampuff schedule, now they get the real teams............etc.[/QUOTE] Looking in more detail, there are two other RSWs where my estimations were way, way off. Both the Packers and Pats needed to go 10-0 (now 9-0 after Sunday's games) to not at least push the UN bet. I should have estimated these at much higher win rates. This will be corrected in this week's projection. As far as Washington in CFB goes, the Stanford win pushed the bet to slight -EV. Nobody expected them to beat LSU, Oregon and USC. They could only afford one more loss in the "competitive" games so the Arizona loss really slamed the door virtually shut. Now UW is almost certain to go 7-5 or worse.

Note: With a much better estimate of the Pats and Packers UN bets winning, last week's NFL estimate should have been +4.3u, not 1.27u. This week, the Lions loss, Bears win, Bengals loss, Colts win, and UW Huskies loss all made a big change in their est. win %. [B]Summary EV: NFL: +10.30u, CFB: -1.62u [/B] Update thru NFL Week 7 [B] Fezzik NFL season bets Date-Bet Team__________ O/U Value ML Wgt W/L W-Prob T-Prob Bet EV[/B] 9/5 Redskins season wins…….. UN 6.5 -110 2 3-4 45.0% 0.0% 2.20 -0.31 9/5 Patriots season wins…….. UN 12 -110 3 4-3 88.0% 6.0% 3.30 2.44 8/31 Dolphins season wins…….. UN 6.5 -110 2 3-3 38.0% 0.0% 2.20 -0.60 8/26 Seahawks season wins…….. OV 7.5 -130 2 4-3 68.0% 0.0% 2.60 0.53 8/12 Colts season wins…….. OV 5 -120 4 3-3 90.0% 6.0% 4.80 3.41 8/8 Cards season wins…….. UN 7 -130 3 4-3 35.0% 13.0% 3.90 -0.98 8/6 Rodgers vs P Manning TD passes -5 -115 1 19-14 62.0% 7.0% 1.15 0.26 7/29 Browns season wins…….. OV 5 -115 1 1-6 20.0% 10.0% 1.15 -0.61 7/29 Chargers season wins…….. UN 9 -120 1 3-3 53.0% 15.0% 1.20 0.15 7/29 Lions season wins UN 9 -110 4 2-4 73.0% 12.0% 4.40 2.26 7/26 Buccs season wins.. OV 6 -120 2 2-4 36.0% 14.0% 2.40 -0.48 7/25 Packers season wins…….. UN 12 -120 1 4-3 88.0% 6.0% 1.20 0.81 7/21 Bears season wins…….. OV 9 -125 3 5-1 73.0% 13.0% 3.75 1.67 7/20 Jaguars season wins…….. OV 5 -125 2 1-5 35.0% 12.0% 2.50 -0.63 7/24 49ers season wins…….. UN 10 -110 5 5-2 37.0% 14.0% 5.50 -0.85 7/14 Bengals season wins…….. UN 8 100 5 3-4 62.0% 14.0% 5.00 1.90 7/11 Ravens season wins…….. UN 10 -115 3 5-2 42.0% 10.0% 3.45 -0.40 7/6 Raiders season wins…….. UN 7 -120 2 2-4 59.0% 12.0% 2.40 0.48 7/3 Saints season wins…….. UN 10 -150 2 2-4 90.0% 4.0% 3.00 1.62 7/1 Raiders season wins…….. UN 7 -110 2 2-4 59.0% 12.0% 2.20 0.54 7/1 Bills season wins.. OV 7.5 -140 3 3-4 45.0% 0.0% 4.20 -0.96 5/29 Buccs season wins.. UN 6 -120 1 2-4 36.0% 14.0% 1.20 -0.24 5/29 Rams season wins.. OV 6 100 2 3-4 49.0% 16.0% 2.00 0.28 TOTAL 10.30 1/3/2013 Pay date 56 Payout -76.00 Amt bet Amt Bet 65.70 XIRR 38.8% [B] Fezzik CFB season bets[/B] 8/30 Texas AM season wins UN 7 -110 2 5-2 15.0% 12.0% 2.20 -1.31 8/17 Wisky vs GB season wins 3 -185 2 6-4 68.0% 14.0% 3.70 0.69 8/3 Wash season wins UN 7.5 -180 3 3-4 97.0% 0.0% 5.40 2.75 8/3 ND season wins UN 8.5 -200 2 7-0 4.0% 0.0% 4.00 -3.76 7/3 UNLV season wins UN 4.5 -180 0 1-7 99.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.00 TOTAL -1.62 12/4/2012 Pay date 9 Payout -13.68 Amt bet Amt Bet 15.30 XIRR -29.8% Tot Bet 81.00

Expected wins: Colts OV, Packers UN, Pats UN, Chargers UN, Lions UN, Bears OV, Saints UN, Wash Huskies UN Expected losses: Dolphins UN, Texas AM UN, ND UN [B]Summary EV: NFL: +8.79u, CFB: -3.41u [/B] [B] Fezzik NFL season bets Date-Bet Team__________ O/U Value ML Wgt W/L W-Prob T-Prob Bet EV[/B] 9/5 Redskins season wins…….. UN 6.5 -110 2 3-5 55.0% 0.0% 2.20 0.11 9/5 Patriots season wins…….. UN 12 -110 3 5-3 86.0% 6.0% 3.30 2.32 8/31 Dolphins season wins…….. UN 6.5 -110 2 4-3 13.0% 0.0% 2.20 -1.65 8/26 Seahawks season wins…….. OV 7.5 -130 2 4-4 61.0% 0.0% 2.60 0.21 8/12 Colts season wins…….. OV 5 -120 4 4-3 94.0% 5.0% 4.80 3.71 8/8 Cards season wins…….. UN 7 -130 3 4-4 39.0% 15.0% 3.90 -0.62 8/6 Rodgers vs P Manning TD passes -5 -115 1 21-17 60.0% 7.0% 1.15 0.22 7/29 Browns season wins…….. OV 5 -115 1 2-6 30.0% 8.0% 1.15 -0.41 7/29 Chargers season wins…….. UN 9 -120 1 3-4 81.0% 12.0% 1.20 0.73 7/29 Lions season wins UN 9 -110 4 3-4 69.0% 14.0% 4.40 2.01 7/26 Buccs season wins.. OV 6 -120 2 3-4 31.0% 14.0% 2.40 -0.70 7/25 Packers season wins…….. UN 12 -120 1 5-3 86.0% 6.0% 1.20 0.76 7/21 Bears season wins…….. OV 9 -125 3 6-1 75.0% 15.0% 3.75 1.88 7/20 Jaguars season wins…….. OV 5 -125 2 1-6 28.0% 10.0% 2.50 -0.99 7/24 49ers season wins…….. UN 10 -110 5 6-2 31.0% 14.0% 5.50 -1.48 7/14 Bengals season wins…….. UN 8 100 5 3-4 62.0% 14.0% 5.00 1.90 7/11 Ravens season wins…….. UN 10 -115 3 5-2 42.0% 10.0% 3.45 -0.40 7/6 Raiders season wins…….. UN 7 -120 2 3-4 52.0% 15.0% 2.40 0.25 7/3 Saints season wins…….. UN 10 -150 2 2-5 95.0% 4.0% 3.00 1.87 7/1 Raiders season wins…….. UN 7 -110 2 3-4 52.0% 15.0% 2.20 0.31 7/1 Bills season wins.. OV 7.5 -140 3 3-4 45.0% 0.0% 4.20 -0.96 5/29 Buccs season wins.. UN 6 -120 1 3-4 31.0% 14.0% 1.20 -0.35 5/29 Rams season wins.. OV 6 100 2 3-5 44.0% 16.0% 2.00 0.08 TOTAL 8.79 1/3/2013 Pay date 56 Payout -74.49 Amt bet Amt Bet 65.70 XIRR 32.6% [B] Fezzik CFB season bets[/B] 8/30 Texas AM season wins UN 7 -110 2 6-2 1.0% 4.0% 2.20 -2.07 8/17 Wisky vs GB season wins 3 -185 2 6-5 56.0% 18.0% 3.70 0.16 8/3 Wash season wins UN 7.5 -180 3 4-4 94.0% 0.0% 5.40 2.50 8/3 ND season wins UN 8.5 -200 2 8-0 0.1% 0.0% 4.00 -3.99 7/3 UNLV season wins UN 4.5 -180 0 1-8 100.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.00 TOTAL -3.41 12/4/2012 Pay date 9 Payout -11.89 Amt bet Amt Bet 15.30 XIRR -54.9% Tot Bet 81.00

Wins: UNLV UN Losses: Notre Dame UN Expected wins: Colts OV, Packers UN, Pats UN, Chargers UN, Lions UN, Bears OV, Saints UN, Wash Huskies UN Expected losses: Jaguars OV, Dolphins UN, Texas AM UN [B]Summary EV: NFL: +13.16u, CFB: -5.23u [/B] [B] Fezzik NFL season bets Date-Bet Team__________ O/U Value ML Wgt W/L W-Prob T-Prob Bet EV[/B] 9/5 Redskins season wins…….. UN 6.5 -110 2 3-6 48.0% 0.0% 2.20 -0.18 9/5 Patriots season wins…….. UN 12 -110 3 5-3 86.0% 6.0% 3.30 2.32 8/31 Dolphins season wins…….. UN 6.5 -110 2 4-4 19.0% 0.0% 2.20 -1.40 8/26 Seahawks season wins…….. OV 7.5 -130 2 5-4 76.0% 0.0% 2.60 0.90 8/12 Colts season wins…….. OV 5 -120 4 5-3 99.9% 1.0% 4.80 4.04 8/8 Cards season wins…….. UN 7 -130 3 4-5 52.0% 15.0% 3.90 0.27 8/6 Rodgers vs P Manning TD passes -5 -115 1 25-20 70.0% 7.0% 1.15 0.44 7/29 Browns season wins…….. OV 5 -115 1 2-7 27.0% 8.0% 1.15 -0.48 7/29 Chargers season wins…….. UN 9 -120 1 4-4 77.0% 12.0% 1.20 0.64 7/29 Lions season wins UN 9 -110 4 4-4 67.0% 14.0% 4.40 1.84 7/26 Buccs season wins.. OV 6 -120 2 4-4 67.0% 14.0% 2.40 0.88 7/25 Packers season wins…….. UN 12 -120 1 6-3 85.0% 6.0% 1.20 0.74 7/21 Bears season wins…….. OV 9 -125 3 7-1 87.0% 9.0% 3.75 2.46 7/20 Jaguars season wins…….. OV 5 -125 2 1-7 8.0% 12.0% 2.50 -1.84 7/24 49ers season wins…….. UN 10 -110 5 6-2 31.0% 14.0% 5.50 -1.48 7/14 Bengals season wins…….. UN 8 100 5 3-5 77.0% 12.0% 5.00 3.30 7/11 Ravens season wins…….. UN 10 -115 3 6-2 33.0% 12.0% 3.45 -0.91 7/6 Raiders season wins…….. UN 7 -120 2 3-5 60.0% 15.0% 2.40 0.60 7/3 Saints season wins…….. UN 10 -150 2 3-5 92.0% 4.0% 3.00 1.72 7/1 Raiders season wins…….. UN 7 -110 2 3-5 52.0% 15.0% 2.20 0.31 7/1 Bills season wins.. OV 7.5 -140 3 3-5 37.0% 0.0% 4.20 -1.54 5/29 Buccs season wins.. UN 6 -120 1 4-4 67.0% 14.0% 1.20 0.44 5/29 Rams season wins.. OV 6 100 2 3-5 44.0% 16.0% 2.00 0.08 TOTAL 13.16 1/3/2013 Pay date 56 Payout -78.86 Amt bet Amt Bet 65.70 XIRR 50.8% [B]Fezzik CFB season bets[/B] 8/30 Texas AM season wins UN 7 -110 2 7-2 0.0% 1.0% 2.20 -2.18 8/17 Wisky vs GB season wins 3 -185 2 6-6 54.0% 18.0% 3.70 0.04 8/3 Wash season wins UN 7.5 -180 3 5-4 75.0% 0.0% 5.40 0.90 8/3 ND season wins UN 8.5 -200 2 9-0 0.0% 0.0% 4.00 -4.00 7/3 UNLV season wins UN 4.5 -180 0 1-8 100.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.00 TOTAL -5.23 12/4/2012 Pay date 9 Payout -10.07 Amt bet Amt Bet 15.30 XIRR -73.4% Tot Bet 81.00

Wins: Colts OV, UNLV UN Losses: Notre Dame UN, Texas AM UN Expected wins: Packers UN, Pats UN, Chargers UN, Lions UN, Bears OV, Saints UN Expected losses: Jaguars OV, Dolphins UN, Bills OV, Wash Huskies UN [B]Summary EV: NFL: +14.00u, CFB: -9.13u [/B] Fezzik NFL season bets Date-Bet Team__________ O/U Value ML Wgt W/L W-Prob T-Prob Bet EV 9/5 Redskins season wins…….. UN 6.5 -110 2 3-6 48.0% 0.0% 2.20 -0.18 9/5 Patriots season wins…….. UN 12 -110 3 6-3 82.0% 6.0% 3.30 2.06 8/31 Dolphins season wins…….. UN 6.5 -110 2 4-5 27.0% 0.0% 2.20 -1.07 8/26 Seahawks season wins…….. OV 7.5 -130 2 6-4 95.0% 0.0% 2.60 1.77 8/12 Colts season wins…….. OV 5 -120 4 6-3 100.0% 0.0% 4.80 4.00 8/8 Cards season wins…….. UN 7 -130 3 4-5 52.0% 15.0% 3.90 0.27 8/6 Rodgers vs P Manning TD passes -5 -115 1 25-21 67.0% 7.0% 1.15 0.37 7/29 Browns season wins…….. OV 5 -115 1 2-7 27.0% 8.0% 1.15 -0.48 7/29 Chargers season wins…….. UN 9 -120 1 4-5 86.0% 7.0% 1.20 0.78 7/29 Lions season wins UN 9 -110 4 4-5 80.0% 14.0% 4.40 2.94 7/26 Buccs season wins.. OV 6 -120 2 5-4 94.0% 5.0% 2.40 1.86 7/25 Packers season wins…….. UN 12 -120 1 6-3 85.0% 6.0% 1.20 0.74 7/21 Bears season wins…….. OV 9 -125 3 7-2 85.0% 11.0% 3.75 2.40 7/20 Jaguars season wins…….. OV 5 -125 2 1-8 1.0% 6.0% 2.50 -2.31 7/24 49ers season wins…….. UN 10 -110 5 6-2-1 52.0% 12.0% 5.50 0.62 7/14 Bengals season wins…….. UN 8 100 5 4-5 64.0% 12.0% 5.00 2.00 7/11 Ravens season wins…….. UN 10 -115 3 7-2 23.0% 12.0% 3.45 -1.55 7/6 Raiders season wins…….. UN 7 -120 2 3-6 78.0% 15.0% 2.40 1.39 7/3 Saints season wins…….. UN 10 -150 2 4-5 92.0% 5.0% 3.00 1.75 7/1 Raiders season wins…….. UN 7 -110 2 3-6 78.0% 15.0% 2.20 1.41 7/1 Bills season wins.. OV 7.5 -140 3 3-6 11.0% 0.0% 4.20 -3.41 5/29 Buccs season wins.. UN 6 -120 1 5-4 6.0% 5.0% 1.20 -1.01 5/29 Rams season wins.. OV 6 100 2 3-5-1 32.0% 18.0% 2.00 -0.36 TOTAL 14.00 1/3/2013 Pay date 56 Payout -79.70 Amt bet Amt Bet 65.70 XIRR 54.4% Fezzik CFB season bets 8/30 Texas AM season wins UN 7 -110 2 8-2 0.0% 0.0% 2.20 -2.20 8/17 Wisky vs GB season wins 3 -185 2 7-6 56.0% 17.0% 3.70 0.12 8/3 Wash season wins UN 7.5 -180 3 6-4 28.0% 0.0% 5.40 -3.05 8/3 ND season wins UN 8.5 -200 2 10-0 0.0% 0.0% 4.00 -4.00 7/3 UNLV season wins UN 4.5 -180 0 2-9 100.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.00 TOTAL -9.13 12/4/2012 Pay date 9 Payout -6.17 Amt bet Amt Bet 15.30 XIRR -94.3% Tot Bet 81.00

Wins: Colts OV, UNLV UN Losses: Notre Dame UN, Texas AM UN Expected wins: Packers UN, Pats UN, Seahawks OV, Chargers UN, Lions UN, Bears OV, Raiders UN, Saints UN Expected losses: Jaguars OV, Rams OV, Bills OV, Ravens UN, Wash Huskies UN [B]Summary EV: NFL: +9.65u, CFB: -11.24u [/B] [B] Fezzik NFL season bets Date-Bet Team__________ O/U Value ML Wgt W/L W-Prob T-Prob Bet EV[/B] 9/5 Redskins season wins…….. UN 6.5 -110 2 4-6 42.0% 0.0% 2.20 -0.44 9/5 Patriots season wins…….. UN 12 -110 3 7-3 73.0% 12.0% 3.30 1.70 8/31 Dolphins season wins…….. UN 6.5 -110 2 4-6 39.0% 0.0% 2.20 -0.56 8/26 Seahawks season wins…….. OV 7.5 -130 2 6-4 95.0% 0.0% 2.60 1.77 8/12 Colts season wins…….. OV 5 -120 4 6-4 100.0% 0.0% 4.80 4.00 8/8 Cards season wins…….. UN 7 -130 3 4-6 62.0% 13.0% 3.90 0.89 8/6 Rodgers vs P Manning TD passes -5 -115 1 27-24 58.0% 7.0% 1.15 0.18 7/29 Browns season wins…….. OV 5 -115 1 2-8 5.0% 12.0% 1.15 -0.90 7/29 Chargers season wins…….. UN 9 -120 1 4-6 91.0% 7.0% 1.20 0.89 7/29 Lions season wins UN 9 -110 4 4-6 87.0% 8.0% 4.40 3.26 7/26 Buccs season wins.. OV 6 -120 2 6-4 99.0% 1.0% 2.40 1.98 7/25 Packers season wins…….. UN 12 -120 1 7-3 77.0% 12.0% 1.20 0.64 7/21 Bears season wins…….. OV 9 -125 3 7-3 82.0% 12.0% 3.75 2.24 7/20 Jaguars season wins…….. OV 5 -125 2 1-9 1.0% 3.0% 2.50 -2.38 7/24 49ers season wins…….. UN 10 -110 5 7-2-1 44.0% 12.0% 5.50 -0.22 7/14 Bengals season wins…….. UN 8 100 5 5-5 30.0% 24.0% 5.00 -0.80 7/11 Ravens season wins…….. UN 10 -115 3 8-2 8.0% 8.0% 3.45 -2.66 7/6 Raiders season wins…….. UN 7 -120 2 3-7 84.0% 10.0% 2.40 1.54 7/3 Saints season wins…….. UN 10 -150 2 5-5 86.0% 9.0% 3.00 1.57 7/1 Raiders season wins…….. UN 7 -110 2 3-7 84.0% 10.0% 2.20 1.55 7/1 Bills season wins.. OV 7.5 -140 3 4-6 28.0% 0.0% 4.20 -2.18 5/29 Buccs season wins.. UN 6 -120 1 6-4 0.0% 1.0% 1.20 -1.19 5/29 Rams season wins.. OV 6 100 2 3-6-1 13.0% 14.0% 2.00 -1.20 TOTAL 9.65 1/3/2013 Pay date 56 Payout -75.35 Amt bet Amt Bet 65.70 XIRR 36.1% [B] Fezzik CFB season bets[/B] 8/30 Texas AM season wins UN 7 -110 2 9-2 0.0% 0.0% 2.20 -2.20 8/17 Wisky vs GB season wins 3 -185 2 7-7 32.0% 15.0% 3.70 -1.32 8/3 Wash season wins UN 7.5 -180 3 7-4 20.0% 0.0% 5.40 -3.72 8/3 ND season wins UN 8.5 -200 2 11-0 0.0% 0.0% 4.00 -4.00 7/3 UNLV season wins UN 4.5 -180 0 2-10 100.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.00 TOTAL -11.24 12/4/2012 Pay date 9 Payout -4.06 Amt bet Amt Bet 15.30 XIRR -98.5% Tot Bet 81.00

Wins: Colts OV, UNLV UN, Wash Huskies UN Losses: Notre Dame UN, Texas AM UN Expected wins: Packers UN, Seahawks OV, Chargers UN, Lions UN, Bears OV, Raiders UN, Saints UN Expected losses: Jaguars OV, Rams OV, Bills OV, Ravens UN, Redskins UN, 49ers UN [B]Summary EV: NFL: +3.18u, CFB: -4.23u [/B] [B] Fezzik NFL season bets Date-Bet Team__________ O/U Value ML Wgt W/L W-Prob T-Prob Bet EV[/B] 9/5 Redskins season wins…….. UN 6.5 -110 2 5-6 16.0% 0.0% 2.20 -1.53 9/5 Patriots season wins…….. UN 12 -110 3 8-3 64.0% 15.0% 3.30 1.23 8/31 Dolphins season wins…….. UN 6.5 -110 2 5-6 21.0% 0.0% 2.20 -1.32 8/26 Seahawks season wins…….. OV 7.5 -130 2 6-5 86.0% 0.0% 2.60 1.36 8/12 Colts season wins…….. OV 5 -120 4 7-4 100.0% 0.0% 4.80 4.00 8/8 Cards season wins…….. UN 7 -130 3 4-7 70.0% 11.0% 3.90 1.36 8/6 Rodgers vs P Manning TD passes -5 -115 1 28-26 48.0% 8.0% 1.15 -0.03 7/29 Browns season wins…….. OV 5 -115 1 3-8 10.0% 15.0% 1.15 -0.76 7/29 Chargers season wins…….. UN 9 -120 1 4-7 99.0% 1.0% 1.20 0.99 7/29 Lions season wins UN 9 -110 4 4-7 98.0% 2.0% 4.40 3.92 7/26 Buccs season wins.. OV 6 -120 2 6-5 98.0% 2.0% 2.40 1.96 7/25 Packers season wins…….. UN 12 -120 1 7-4 94.0% 6.0% 1.20 0.94 7/21 Bears season wins…….. OV 9 -125 3 8-3 94.0% 4.0% 3.75 2.75 7/20 Jaguars season wins…….. OV 5 -125 2 2-9 5.0% 10.0% 2.50 -2.03 7/24 49ers season wins…….. UN 10 -110 5 8-2-1 4.0% 15.0% 5.50 -4.26 7/14 Bengals season wins…….. UN 8 100 5 6-5 12.0% 26.0% 5.00 -2.50 7/11 Ravens season wins…….. UN 10 -115 3 9-2 1.0% 4.0% 3.45 -3.25 7/6 Raiders season wins…….. UN 7 -120 2 3-8 93.0% 5.0% 2.40 1.81 7/3 Saints season wins…….. UN 10 -150 2 5-6 95.0% 5.0% 3.00 1.90 7/1 Raiders season wins…….. UN 7 -110 2 3-8 93.0% 5.0% 2.20 1.82 7/1 Bills season wins.. OV 7.5 -140 3 4-7 11.0% 0.0% 4.20 -3.41 5/29 Buccs season wins.. UN 6 -120 1 6-5 0.0% 2.0% 1.20 -1.18 5/29 Rams season wins.. OV 6 100 2 4-6-1 27.0% 16.0% 2.00 -0.60 TOTAL 3.18 1/3/2013 Pay date 56 Payout -68.88 Amt bet Amt Bet 65.70 XIRR 11.2% [B] Fezzik CFB season bets[/B] 8/30 Texas AM season wins UN 7 -110 2 10-2 0.0% 0.0% 2.20 -2.20 8/17 Wisky vs GB season wins 3 -185 2 7-7 30.0% 26.0% 3.70 -1.03 8/3 Wash season wins UN 7.5 -180 3 7-5 100.0% 0.0% 5.40 3.00 8/3 ND season wins UN 8.5 -200 2 12-0 0.0% 0.0% 4.00 -4.00 7/3 UNLV season wins UN 4.5 -180 0 2-11 100.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.00 TOTAL -4.23 12/4/2012 Pay date 9 Payout -11.07 Amt bet Amt Bet 15.30 XIRR -64.0% Tot Bet 81.00

Wins_____: Colts OV, UNLV UN, Wash Huskies UN, Saints UN, Chargers UN, Lions UN Losses___: Notre Dame UN, Texas AM UN Expected wins___: Packers UN, Seahawks OV, Bears OV, Raiders UN, Cards UN, Browns OV Expected losses_: Jaguars OV, Bills OV, Ravens UN, Redskins UN, 49ers UN, Bengals UN [B]Summary EV: NFL: +7.04u, CFB: -5.09u [/B] [B] Fezzik NFL season bets Date-Bet Team__________ O/U Value ML Wgt W/L W-Prob T-Prob Bet EV[/B] 9/5 Redskins season wins…….. UN 6.5 -110 2 6-6 5.0% 0.0% 2.20 -1.99 9/5 Patriots season wins…….. UN 12 -110 3 9-3 61.0% 15.0% 3.30 1.04 8/31 Dolphins season wins…….. UN 6.5 -110 2 5-7 36.0% 0.0% 2.20 -0.69 8/26 Seahawks season wins…….. OV 7.5 -130 2 7-5 95.0% 0.0% 2.60 1.77 8/12 Colts season wins…….. OV 5 -120 4 8-4 100.0% 0.0% 4.80 4.00 8/8 Cards season wins…….. UN 7 -130 3 4-8 89.0% 9.0% 3.90 2.59 8/6 Rodgers vs P Manning TD passes -5 -115 1 29-29 19.0% 7.0% 1.15 -0.66 7/29 Browns season wins…….. OV 5 -115 1 4-8 78.0% 16.0% 1.15 0.71 7/29 Chargers season wins…….. UN 9 -120 1 4-8 100.0% 0.0% 1.20 1.00 7/29 Lions season wins UN 9 -110 4 4-8 100.0% 0.0% 4.40 4.00 7/26 Buccs season wins.. OV 6 -120 2 6-6 98.0% 2.0% 2.40 1.96 7/25 Packers season wins…….. UN 12 -120 1 8-4 92.0% 8.0% 1.20 0.92 7/21 Bears season wins…….. OV 9 -125 3 8-4 90.0% 7.0% 3.75 2.59 7/20 Jaguars season wins…….. OV 5 -125 2 2-10 0.1% 2.0% 2.50 -2.45 7/24 49ers season wins…….. UN 10 -110 5 8-3-1 12.0% 15.0% 5.50 -3.42 7/14 Bengals season wins…….. UN 8 100 5 7-5 2.0% 14.0% 5.00 -4.10 7/11 Ravens season wins…….. UN 10 -115 3 9-3 3.0% 10.0% 3.45 -2.91 7/6 Raiders season wins…….. UN 7 -120 2 3-9 99.9% 0.1% 2.40 2.00 7/3 Saints season wins…….. UN 10 -150 2 5-7 100.0% 0.0% 3.00 2.00 7/1 Raiders season wins…….. UN 7 -110 2 3-9 99.9% 0.1% 2.20 2.00 7/1 Bills season wins.. OV 7.5 -140 3 5-7 28.0% 0.0% 4.20 -2.18 5/29 Buccs season wins.. UN 6 -120 1 6-6 0.0% 2.0% 1.20 -1.18 5/29 Rams season wins.. OV 6 100 2 5-6-1 43.0% 16.0% 2.00 0.04 TOTAL 7.04 1/3/2013 Pay date 56 Payout -72.74 Amt bet Amt Bet 65.70 XIRR 25.7% [B] Fezzik CFB season bets[/B] 8/30 Texas AM season wins UN 7 -110 2 10-2 0.0% 0.0% 2.20 -2.20 8/17 Wisky vs GB season wins 3 -185 2 7-8 20.0% 18.0% 3.70 -1.89 8/3 Wash season wins UN 7.5 -180 3 7-5 100.0% 0.0% 5.40 3.00 8/3 ND season wins UN 8.5 -200 2 12-0 0.0% 0.0% 4.00 -4.00 7/3 UNLV season wins UN 4.5 -180 0 2-11 100.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.00 TOTAL -5.09 12/4/2012 Pay date 9 Payout -10.21 Amt bet Amt Bet 15.30 XIRR -72.2% Tot Bet 81.00

Wins_____: Colts OV, UNLV UN, Wash Huskies UN, Saints UN, Chargers UN, Lions UN, Raiders UN, Seahawks OV Losses___: Notre Dame UN, Texas AM UN, Redskins UN Expected wins___: Packers UN, Bears OV, Cards UN, Browns OV Expected losses_: Jaguars OV, Bills OV, Ravens UN, 49ers UN, Bengals UN [B]Summary EV: NFL: +7.59u, CFB: -5.70u [/B] [B] Fezzik NFL season bets Date-Bet Team__________ O/U Value ML Wgt W/L W-Prob T-Prob Bet EV[/B] 9/5 Redskins season wins…….. UN 6.5 -110 2 7-6 0.0% 0.0% 2.20 -2.20 9/5 Patriots season wins…….. UN 12 -110 3 10-3 30.0% 40.0% 3.30 -0.09 8/31 Dolphins season wins…….. UN 6.5 -110 2 5-8 53.0% 0.0% 2.20 0.03 8/26 Seahawks season wins…….. OV 7.5 -130 2 8-5 100.0% 0.0% 2.60 2.00 8/12 Colts season wins…….. OV 5 -120 4 9-4 100.0% 0.0% 4.80 4.00 8/8 Cards season wins…….. UN 7 -130 3 4-9 97.0% 3.0% 3.90 2.91 8/6 Rodgers vs P Manning TD passes -5 -115 1 29-30 9.0% 3.0% 1.15 -0.92 7/29 Browns season wins…….. OV 5 -115 1 5-8 88.0% 12.0% 1.15 0.88 7/29 Chargers season wins…….. UN 9 -120 1 5-8 100.0% 0.0% 1.20 1.00 7/29 Lions season wins UN 9 -110 4 4-9 100.0% 0.0% 4.40 4.00 7/26 Buccs season wins.. OV 6 -120 2 6-7 96.0% 4.0% 2.40 1.92 7/25 Packers season wins…….. UN 12 -120 1 9-4 87.0% 13.0% 1.20 0.87 7/21 Bears season wins…….. OV 9 -125 3 8-5 75.0% 16.0% 3.75 1.91 7/20 Jaguars season wins…….. OV 5 -125 2 2-11 0.0% 1.0% 2.50 -2.48 7/24 49ers season wins…….. UN 10 -110 5 9-3-1 6.0% 18.0% 5.50 -3.88 7/14 Bengals season wins…….. UN 8 100 5 7-6 9.0% 28.0% 5.00 -2.70 7/11 Ravens season wins…….. UN 10 -115 3 9-4 6.0% 13.0% 3.45 -2.61 7/6 Raiders season wins…….. UN 7 -120 2 3-10 100.0% 0.0% 2.40 2.00 7/3 Saints season wins…….. UN 10 -150 2 5-7 100.0% 0.0% 3.00 2.00 7/1 Raiders season wins…….. UN 7 -110 2 3-10 100.0% 0.0% 2.20 2.00 7/1 Bills season wins.. OV 7.5 -140 3 5-8 7.0% 0.0% 4.20 -3.70 5/29 Buccs season wins.. UN 6 -120 1 6-7 0.0% 4.0% 1.20 -1.15 5/29 Rams season wins.. OV 6 100 2 6-6-1 90.0% 10.0% 2.00 1.80 TOTAL 7.59 1/3/2013 Pay date 56 Payout -73.29 Amt bet Amt Bet 65.70 XIRR 27.9% [B] Fezzik CFB season bets[/B] 8/30 Texas AM season wins UN 7 -110 2 10-2 0.0% 0.0% 2.20 -2.20 8/17 Wisky vs GB season wins 3 -185 2 7-9 10.0% 17.0% 3.70 -2.50 8/3 Wash season wins UN 7.5 -180 3 7-5 100.0% 0.0% 5.40 3.00 8/3 ND season wins UN 8.5 -200 2 12-0 0.0% 0.0% 4.00 -4.00 7/3 UNLV season wins UN 4.5 -180 0 2-11 100.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.00 TOTAL -5.70 12/4/2012 Pay date 9 Payout -9.60 Amt bet Amt Bet 15.30 XIRR -77.1% Tot Bet 81.00

Wins____: Colts OV, UNLV UN, Wash Huskies UN, Saints UN, Chargers UN, Lions UN, Raiders UN, Seahawks OV, Cards UN Losses___: Notre Dame UN, Texas AM UN, Redskins UN, Jaguars OV, Bills OV Expected wins__: Packers UN, Browns OV Expected losses_: 49ers UN, Bengals UN, Dolphins UN [B]Summary EV: NFL: +3.97u, CFB: -6.35u [/B] [B] Fezzik NFL season bets Date-Bet Team__________ O/U Value ML Wgt W/L W-Prob T-Prob Bet EV[/B] 9/5 Redskins season wins…….. UN 6.5 -110 2 8-6 0.0% 0.0% 2.20 -2.20 9/5 Patriots season wins…….. UN 12 -110 3 10-4 30.0% 70.0% 3.30 0.90 8/31 Dolphins season wins…….. UN 6.5 -110 2 6-8 23.0% 0.0% 2.20 -1.23 8/26 Seahawks season wins…….. OV 7.5 -130 2 9-5 100.0% 0.0% 2.60 2.00 8/12 Colts season wins…….. OV 5 -120 4 9-5 100.0% 0.0% 4.80 4.00 8/8 Cards season wins…….. UN 7 -130 3 4-10 100.0% 0.0% 3.90 3.00 8/6 Rodgers vs P Manning TD passes -5 -115 1 32-31 7.0% 4.0% 1.15 -0.95 7/29 Browns season wins…….. OV 5 -115 1 5-9 35.0% 65.0% 1.15 0.35 7/29 Chargers season wins…….. UN 9 -120 1 5-9 100.0% 0.0% 1.20 1.00 7/29 Lions season wins UN 9 -110 4 4-10 100.0% 0.0% 4.40 4.00 7/26 Buccs season wins.. OV 6 -120 2 6-8 80.0% 20.0% 2.40 1.60 7/25 Packers season wins…….. UN 12 -120 1 10-4 70.0% 30.0% 1.20 0.70 7/21 Bears season wins…….. OV 9 -125 3 8-6 33.0% 38.0% 3.75 -0.10 7/20 Jaguars season wins…….. OV 5 -125 2 2-12 0.0% 0.0% 2.50 -2.50 7/24 49ers season wins…….. UN 10 -110 5 10-3-1 0.0% 10.0% 5.50 -4.95 7/14 Bengals season wins…….. UN 8 100 5 8-6 0.0% 27.0% 5.00 -3.65 7/11 Ravens season wins…….. UN 10 -115 3 9-5 30.0% 40.0% 3.45 -0.14 7/6 Raiders season wins…….. UN 7 -120 2 4-10 100.0% 0.0% 2.40 2.00 7/3 Saints season wins…….. UN 10 -150 2 6-8 100.0% 0.0% 3.00 2.00 7/1 Raiders season wins…….. UN 7 -110 2 4-10 100.0% 0.0% 2.20 2.00 7/1 Bills season wins.. OV 7.5 -140 3 5-9 0.0% 0.0% 4.20 -4.20 5/29 Buccs season wins.. UN 6 -120 1 6-8 0.0% 20.0% 1.20 -0.96 5/29 Rams season wins.. OV 6 100 2 6-7-1 65.0% 35.0% 2.00 1.30 TOTAL 3.97 1/3/2013 Pay date 56 Payout -69.67 Amt bet Amt Bet 65.70 XIRR 14.1% [B] Fezzik CFB season bets[/B] 8/30 Texas AM season wins UN 7 -110 2 10-2 0.0% 0.0% 2.20 -2.20 8/17 Wisky vs GB season wins 3 -185 2 7-10 0.0% 15.0% 3.70 -3.15 8/3 Wash season wins UN 7.5 -180 3 7-5 100.0% 0.0% 5.40 3.00 8/3 ND season wins UN 8.5 -200 2 12-0 0.0% 0.0% 4.00 -4.00 7/3 UNLV season wins UN 4.5 -180 0 2-11 100.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.00 TOTAL -6.35 12/4/2012 Pay date 9 Payout -8.96 Amt bet Amt Bet 15.30 XIRR -81.6% Tot Bet 81.00