For those of you who like John Kelly and Phil Steele

Last I saw Phil Steele in vegas he was betting $50 a game

Phil Steele Interview I listened to the entire interview. Typical John Kelly interview. That's why John will never make it big time. He asks the tough questions when he doesn't like you or your not in his inner circle but if he likes you it's pure underhand softball questions. Do you think he'd ever ask Phil Steele about how he has two different services and why he never lists the records for the previous week? How about asking Phil Steele if he accepts kickbacks from offshore sportsbooks on player losses? Those are two for starters that many players would like the answer on but he would never ask. Phil knows his college football but it has only made him barely an above average handicapper in terms of wins and losses. Shoot, even the guy he has for the pros has been far better than Phil. That's the guy who has never been mentioned but who people would like to hear from. Phil Steele puts out the best college football annual in the industry but his opinion on betting is far from sharp.

WRONG! Steele is just as sharp as the good Dr, and has been around for 20+ years.

Steele His record doesn't compare with the good doctor. Steele is good but nowhere near as good as the public is led to believe. No one's perfect but Kelly's marshmellow tosses were eaten up with ease.

WRONG! Steele is just as sharp as the good Dr, and has been around for 20+ years. He's been around for 20 years SELLING picks..he doesn't bet..when he does it's $50 lol

[QUOTE=Fezzik;4063]One of the guys I love to listen to......[/QUOTE] How many times are you going to quote the VI records as if they mean something. Wasn't it proven on the old LVA boards, that games are graded after line moves at VI and the capper is given the benefit of getting picks graded after the line moves.

VI [QUOTE=towelie;4639]How many times are you going to quote the VI records as if they mean something. Wasn't it proven on the old LVA boards, that games are graded after line moves at VI and the capper is given the benefit of getting picks graded after the line moves.[/QUOTE] What's VI?

VI is vegas insder. Here are two of the old posts about the grading policy. Basically a capper could give out a pick at the widely available line lets say -4 for this example and if the line went down to -3 VI would grade the play at the -3. On the other hand if the line steamed up to -5, the capper would get graded at -4. There was instances where 2 cappers would be on opposite sides for totals and there would be 3.5 point middles regardless of when each guy put the plays out. https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/forum/messageview.cfm?catid=36&threadid=170504&FTVAR_MSGDBTABLE=&STARTPAGE=1 https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/forum/messageview.cfm?catid=36&threadid=270563&FTVAR_MSGDBTABLE=&STARTPAGE=1

Sorry Guys, No Debate here, Bob's 'main' picks CRUSH Steele's Dr. Bob has hit around 55% ATS the last 20 years in college football. Curiously the last 6 years data is also around 55% plus and that is WAY more significant (the mathematicians would disagree). The reason us that back in 2000 midweek lines were a donk-fest that the sharps feasted off of. This is no longer the case. Moving over to Phil, since 1/1/03 Vegas Insider (giving him THE VERY BEST SOLO NUMBER ON THE SCREEN) has him 53.7% ATS. I will be kind (and I'm sure some will disagree)but I will call it 53% ATS......that's still rather good, and ranks him around 3rd-5thish of the VI handicappers (Alf Musketa still is clobbering him in overall win rate over there). 55 percent is better than 53%. How much better? About 5 times better IMO!! Now naysayers will argue 1. Bob's numbers are now impossible to get as you have 5 seconds to get 1 bet (and they are right) AND they can 2. Argue Phil's double diamond black gold sterling late plays (or whatever they call it) have higher win rates..... and they might be right, I don't know. But debating Phil's college football main releases as being 'better' or 'equal' to Dr. Bob smacks of favoritism, as the data screams otherwise. As does the market, where a Dr. Bob strong opinion still moves the market more than a normal Phil Steele play. How did Bob releases get so much credibility, despite little to no mrketing? Because HE WON MORE THAN THE OTHER GUYS!! Having said all that, the Good Doctor has hit the iceberg IMO and the Titanic may well go down. He keeps writing "this game has a 60% chance to cover -17, aok to lay up to -19 as a 2 star".....never mind he should realize that when his model and the mkt disagree, the "right" answer is currently almost always a number inbetween, why he doesn't understand this despite the clear cut data showing it is puzzling to me. Dr. Bob is forcing plays into triple coverage IMO, giving out the La Monroe -6 suggested type bets when the line opens-3. Will he win at 55% going forward. NO CHANCE!!! 53%? We will see........

Hugely important to understand the decreasing value of difference between a PR line and the actual line. Meaning, for ex. that a 6 pt estimated edge isn't likely to be twice as valuable as a 3 pt estimated edge. Personally, I've learned to use the formula: sqrt(edge+1)-1 for unit sizing. Meaning, for a 3 pt est. edge, sqrt(edge+1)-1 is a 1 unit bet, for an 8 pt est. edge, it's 2, and so on. This varies somewhat by sport and between totals and spreads, but you get the idea.