From ESPN Insider - A look at NFL divisional playoff games From ESPN Insider:
NFL divisional-round line moves
Friday, January 15, 2010 |
I called Fezzik this week to help out with the divisional-round line moves column. Can't go wrong with Fez right now. He's coming off his unprecedented second straight win in the Las Vegas Hilton's handicapping Super Contest, which earned him a little under $200,0000. (Read all about him right right here.) No matter whom I interact with this week -- whether it's Simmons on his podcast or readers sending e-mails or tweeters tweeting -- they want to know what Fezzik is thinking. So we'll find out.
But before we do that I wanted to talk about the Cardinals-Saints over/under, which currently stands at 57. RJ Bell, the sports betting info genius who runs Pregame.com, wrote me a note that said this is the highest total for a playoff game in 20 years, which is as far back as data is available. It bests, by one point, the total of the Colts at Broncos from 2004. He also pointed out that only seven regular-season games in the past two decades were listed higher than 57, with the highest being 62, when the Kurt Warner-led Rams faced the 49ers in Week 9 of the 2000 season. In that game, only 58 points were scored.
"Early money is all on the over on this game," says Richard Gardner, who runs the sports book for Bodog. "And with these two explosive offenses we only see the total going up if anything."
Even if the game doesn't match up, it's already a historic moment. At least to me.
Anyway, here's what Fezzik had to say about the games this weekend:
Matchup: Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints
Line moves: Opened at Saints minus-7, didn't budge
What that means: Bookmakers don't like moving the line off seven, so it will take a load of dough to move this either way.
Fezzik says: "What is keeping that line in track is that the Saints got killed by the Cowboys -- disturbing. Couldn't beat the Bucs at home -- disturbing. Mailed it in against Carolina -- disturbing. Can they turn it on this week? I bet they can. They are the only favorite that statistically dominates. In yards per play, which is one of the first stats I look at, they have a 1.1-yard advantage. Arizona only has a 0.3-yard advantage. The Saints rush better than opponents, and the Cards opponents' rush better than they do. New Orleans has the quarterback advantage, too. Its QB rating is 109.4. Opposing QBs average just a 67 rating. While Warner has a 93 and the Cards give up a 77, the Saints are a plus-42. Add it all up and the basic strategy is you want to find a way to bet on the teams off the byes. Also not being reflected in the marketplace, in my opinion, is the fact that the Cards played late Sunday night and now play early Saturday. That chops a day and a half off their preparation. I'm confident the Saints are the right side. Oh yeah, if you can find anyone offering a prop of under eight punts, that would be a great bet."
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Matchup: Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts
Line moves: Opened at Colts minus-6.5, didn't budge
What that means: Sharps like the 'dog, but bookmakers are holding tight expecting the public to play the Colts.
Fezzik says: "The money is coming on Baltimore, I think the game will close to 5.5. Statistically, the Colts are a fraud. Rushing they only gain 3.5 yards per play, and they give up 4. Baltimore gains 4.6 and gives up 3.6. That's a fundamental rushing advantage for a seven-point underdog, and when you find those you want to jump all over them. Baltimore should be able to chew up the clock with long drives. Even the QB differential for Baltimore is plus-20 because of the defense. Add it all up and there's not much difference between these two, but I hate playing against bye teams. I think this is a good bet, not a great bet. Baltimore is where the money is going to come. No way you can justify Indy being a seven-point favorite."
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Matchup: Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings
Line moves: Opened at Vikings minus-2.5, currently Vikings minus-3
What that means: Early on, sharps will play the home team less than a field goal.
Fezzik says: "The bye week is worth a point, but statistically Dallas is the better team. It has better yards-per-play stats and better rush stats. But you also have to feel that Dallas has the better quarterback. My gut says Favre loses the game for them. At a neutral site at pick 'em, I would take Dallas without even thinking. But because the game is at home, with the dome rocking, it's a harder play. Sharps have been playing the Vikings, but by the weekend I will have equal money on the Cowboys plus-3."
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Matchup: New York Jets at San Diego Chargers
Line moves: Opened at Chargers minus-9, currently Chargers minus-7
What that means: Rex Ryan isn't the only one who believes in the J-E-T-S!
Fezzik says: "This game will probably close at 6.5. The Jets have phenomenal pure numbers. Look at yards per play. They averaged 5.1 and gave up 4.3. San Diego averaged 5.9 and gave up 5.3, but that yards-gained number looks better than it is because it is all through the air. The Chargers gave up 4.4 yards per rush and gained just 3.3, while the Jets averaged 4.5 and gave up 2.8. They have an off-the-charts rushing advantage. That means the Jets should run all day long and the Chargers can't run, so how are they going to cover seven points? On paper the Jets are the better team, and when the better team on paper is getting seven points, that is an automatic take."
