Here's another good one.... [B]Regarding the last play of the 1st half of the Dal-Wash game:[/B]
Going for a hail mary at the end of the half from your own 36 on the last play of the first half (:04 seconds left), what is the probability in points of:
a)a completed Hail Mary. The ball has to reach the end zone to score in all but a fairly small margin of hail marys, which means Romo will probably have to throw the ball over 70 yards in the air and have it caught in the end zone for the play to be successful, or have a pass interference call, which will put the ball on the one. I would say using gorilla math, that the odds of catching the ball in play and running it into the end zone, and the odds of a PI call are about equal.
b)a return of a turnover for a TD, either by fumble or interception, which can include a tipped or deflected pass. The defense is not going to slide to preserve the win, as most (at least the smart ones, as any continuation of play would only increase the chances of the offense scoring by safety or a turnover by the showboating moron who doesn't slide or go out of bounds) players would at the end of regulation.
c)Then add in ad lib backward lateral on your own 32 with 11 defenders in front of you, and 0 of your guys behind you. Once Romo lateraled the ball, that had to increase the odds of defense scoring exponentially, and I would think would give the defense a much higher probability of scoring from the 32 yard line of the offense.
If a hail mary is not your best option (ei.,last play of the game option vs. end of the half option in a competitive game), it's not smart to use it. I'd like to see the probabilities on results of these plays (for both offense and defensive scoring) from different parts of the field, also including backward laterals.