GameDay Super Bowl props I'll try and add to this post as the day goes on and as the bets are
made. Trying to bet in LV on Super Bowl Sunday is pretty much a
waste of time due to long lines of clueless bettors so the day will
be spent in front of the computer. Lots of outs and lots of time today.
Not trying to convince anyone to bet these, just detailing bets I make that
are still out there on game day. I've been betting for 10 days now so
this will be just a small fraction of the whole deal, but they're out there.
I have more outs than most and not saying these are widely available
- just that they are up offshore somewhere.
1) Pau Gasol +1/2 Pts&Reb vs Ravens total points -115.
This is like getting Gasol OV 21.5. Due to Howard being limited Gasol
could get big minutes. He had a very good last game with Dwight out,
scoring 22 and getting 10 boards for 34. No reason not to try to get
him on a roll so D'Antoni should give him every chance to build on that
last game. I made the line Pau -5.
2) Number of Ravens to get a rush attempt OV 3.5 -200.
Flacco, Pierce and Rice are pretty much gimmes. Flacco had one game out of
17 where he was the QB and did not get a rush (did not count game 16 as he
bailed in 1Q to get Tyrod Taylor some work). Most important player is going to
be Vonta Leach. He's the most likely #4. Tyrod Taylor and T Smith are
possibles. Taylor ran the Kapernick position in practice this week so there
maybe a shot that they use him but probably not unless Joe gets hurt.
Vonta Leach is the key. I don't like the OV 4 plus money option. OV 3.5 or pass.
Unintentionally works as semi-hedge vs next bet in case Flacco does not get a carry.
3) Flacco UN 4.5 rush yds -120.
I found both -105 (BetPheonix) and -120 (Cris) this morning and
both are good. I'd take UN 3.5 -115 as well. Flacco is not a runner. Once
in a while he'll tuck it if it's just a dash and slide but they are not wanting
him to run nor does he want to. In 18 games he played (excluded game 16)
he had OV 4.5 yds 5 times and UN 13 times. The line is this high because
he went over in his last two games. In 2011 you'd have gone 12-6 betting
UN this number so 25-11 UN 4.5 last two years. Just throw the ball Joe.
4) Yes Kaepernick throws an INT -130
Took -125 and -130 in the last hour. 10 games under his belt and Balt will
prob try to make him throw while guarding vs the run. Balt has netted 5 INTs
in the three playoff games vs Brady, Manning and Luck. Betting that Colin
can't pitch a clean game vs the veteran defense.
5) Alt Ptspread SF +3.5 -250
The game line has moved pretty strong today but these alt lines are still out
there at the old numbers. Choices are pretty much between this one and
SF -7.5 +160. I like this one better. Found -250 and -260 2 hours before kickoff.
More as I find them.
