[QUOTE=sundown;38965]i would estimate 1c (+/- .5c)[/QUOTE]
Very close.
First, get an estimate for what percentage of all games, a fav of sround 3 lands on 3 in OT on the first possession. Also let's assume safeties which immediately end the game play about the same small part in both the old and new systems.
The estimates below are all rough since we are looking for a ballpark figure.
1. 7% of games lined around 3 go into OT.
2. 68% of OT games land 3
3. 50% of the time the small fav wins in OT.
Putting these together, the small fav wins by 3 in OT is 7% * 68% * 50% = 2.38% of the total games.
4. A team (under the old system) wins 30% of the time in the OT first possession. This gives about 0.71% of the total games in the sudden death system are fav win by 3 in OT on first possession. Its pretty clear that the difference in % of the new system is much less than 1%.
The new system introduces a disadvantage in going for a FG on the first possession since that doesn't end the game anymore. We can expect more TD than the old system. A FG on the first possession for the most part produces either a 3-0, 3-3 or 6-3 OT result after the other team has its first possession.
If we say the first possession TD probability goes up a bit and even that the % of decisions on the first poss. goes up, its hard to believe that more than a third (more like 1/5 or so) of the previous wins by a FG become wins by a TD. There are a few other considerations, but it appears to me the difference is around a third of 0.71% or 0.24% which is about 1 cent. [B]So my guess is the adjustment is somewhere between 0.5c and 1c.[/B]
Further, cents around the 3 are the same cents as any others(given the same attached ML), it just takes more cents to move the number than any other number in the NFL.
