[QUOTE=joelshitshow;46013]This one is easy to gain from, though. People will react by saying "these new rules increase scoring!" and bet the over, over and over.
GB and NO scoring a lot of points is not that big of a surprise when you consider who the quarterbacks were, not to mention the quality of both teams' secondaries. Plus, there was a PR and a KR for a touchdown.
If you blindly bet the unders at post, you should go at least 8-7 in the remaining games. I'd expect totals to move at least 1 point on average between now and kickoff for each respective game.[/QUOTE]
I told u guys I use a guy named Sharp and he was right on with his prediction but here is what he said in his review...
I decided not to buy back on this one and was gald to not have made the right choice .... since its afterr the game i think its alright to post the write-up :
[QUOTE=from a tout named sharp football analysis]9/8/11 || 451 New Orleans Saints Over 47
The Saints were a top 6 team in fewest negative pass plays last year and boasted the #2 most efficient offense last season.
The Packers average 29 ppg at home since 2008, top 4 in the league. Only once in their last 22 home games did they put up fewer than 20 points.
Meanwhile, the Saints are the #1 scoring road team in the league since 2008, averaging 28 ppg on the road. And eerily similar, only once in the Saints last 22 road games did they put up fewer than 20 points.
Since 2008, the Saints have faced 8 teams who passed for over 7.5 yards/attempt (GB averaged 7.75 last year) on a total set between 45 and 52. The Over is a perfect 7-0-1, going over by an average of 11 points/game.
The Packers meanwhile are prone to Overs vs. teams who score points while requiring few yards. Against teams who need under 16.5 yards/point (the Saints from last year), with totals set between 45 and 48, the Packers Overs are 6-1 since 2008, going over by the same 11 points/game.
When the Saints face high scoring offenses, with a total set below 55 points, the over is 7-1-1 since 2008, going over by an average of 13 ppg.
The Packers are 10-1 to the Over vs. the NFC South since 2005, with 6 of those 10 wins coming w/ McCarthy as HC. On average these 10 games have gone over by a whopping 16 ppg, on an avg line of 43.5.
The last 2 seasons, the Saints have played in 6 road games w/ totals set between 45 and 49 points, and the over is 6-0 in those games, going over by a huge 21 ppg on an avg line of 46.5 points.
Stats also show that the Packers used an empty backfield on 11 percent of plays, making them one of only two teams that went empty more than 10 percent of the time. The interesting diametric here is that the Saints are the #1 blitz team in the league, blitzing 5+ players on almost 50% of opponent plays. It surely will set up a cat and mouse game, and if Rodgers can elude pressure or his line holds, the Packers could put up some big plays. The Packers tied for 5th in the league in explosive plays gaining 20+ yards last year.
On the other side, the Packers rarely blitzed last season, sending 6+ rushers 30th in the league. The Saints, meanwhile, rarely run, ranking 29th in running plays last year. So the Packers will either play coverage and make Brees beat them, or they will have to send pressure. The other thing aiding the over here is that the Saints throw even when leading in the 2nd half the most of any team in the league. Combine that with the fact the Saints have the fewest runs in the 1st half in the league, and a rookie RB in Ingram, and you have to believe HC Payton will trust his SB MVP QB to lead the Saints through the air on Thursday.
Also pay attention to when Brees throws to his right. Brees records his highest passer ratings and TD numbers in passes to the right, and that was the weakness for the Packers defense last season.[/QUOTE]
