Hilton Contest: lines: CHALK is 9-1 ATS

Hilton Contest: lines: CHALK is 9-1 ATS Repeat of 2005.....the top 10 guys in this contest are Chalk lovers and IMO will keep bringing it with fav's each week.

The question is.... DO you think chalk keeps this up?

Put some game theory into it. Make taking the big dogs a dealmaker, when otherwise on the fence. Especially true for anyone at the top. If they can get a read on which way their opps are going, fade that and end up with either a great gain or a brutal knockout, but the risk is worth it. It's all about distinquishing yourself from the field.

[QUOTE=Fezzik;7147]Repeat of 2005.....the top 10 guys in this contest are Chalk lovers and IMO will keep bringing it with fav's each week.[/QUOTE] no doubt. double digit public favs week after week. such a shame.

2009 Double Digits favorites 13-4 ATS. Double Digit favorites covering by an average of more than a touchdown. 2005 Double Digit favorites 14-15 ATS. Through week seven in 2005 5-1 Against the spread. 2005 Favorites Overall 148-108-10 58% 2005 Favorites through Weeks 1-7 55-45-2 55% 2005 Favorites through Weeks 8-SB 93-63-8 60% 2009 Favorites Overall 55-47-0 54% 2009 Favorites through weeks 1-7 55-47-0 54% Might not quite be the underdog bloodbath that the latter part of 2005 was because the market seems a little bit more anticipatory toward the difference. In 2005 at this point through week 7 only 6 DD favorite. 2009 has seen 17 sch favorites. Additionally the average line in 2005 was -4.5. The average line in 2009 is -6.1

Chalk or not, line is same for everyone. Teams are what they are this year, handicap accordingly. I've never understood using "too many favs covered" as an excuse. The bottom line is, you have two teams and a spread. Figure out which one will cover. Each game is individual and unique. That's why I think people who only bet dogs and lose are often just as square as those who only bet favs and lose. I could care less fav or dog, just play the winning side. Is betting favs more "square" than betting dogs? I must have forgot the definition. I thought sharp was getting good lines and betting a high percentage of winners vs. losers. I didn't know it mattered if it was chalk or not. All I care about is the W or the L.

I agree... [QUOTE=IceTea;7206]Chalk or not, line is same for everyone. Teams are what they are this year, handicap accordingly. I've never understood using "too many favs covered" as an excuse. The bottom line is, you have two teams and a spread. Figure out which one will cover. Each game is individual and unique. That's why I think people who only bet dogs and lose are often just as square as those who only bet favs and lose. I could care less fav or dog, just play the winning side. Is betting favs more "square" than betting dogs? I must have forgot the definition. I thought sharp was getting good lines and betting a high percentage of winners vs. losers. I didn't know it mattered if it was chalk or not. All I care about is the W or the L.[/QUOTE] Well said...

take the line out of the equation then and forget value altogether. just pick who you think will win the game. That strategy would have netted you a perfect sunday by just picking the correct winner and 1 tie (depending on your line for Hou SF). but that exercise in itself is a challenge as well.

[QUOTE=sportsmemo;7204]2009 Double Digits favorites 13-4 ATS. Double Digit favorites covering by an average of more than a touchdown. 2005 Double Digit favorites 14-15 ATS. Through week seven in 2005 5-1 Against the spread. 2005 Favorites Overall 148-108-10 58% 2005 Favorites through Weeks 1-7 55-45-2 55% 2005 Favorites through Weeks 8-SB 93-63-8 60% 2009 Favorites Overall 55-47-0 54% 2009 Favorites through weeks 1-7 55-47-0 54% Might not quite be the underdog bloodbath that the latter part of 2005 was because the market seems a little bit more anticipatory toward the difference. In 2005 at this point through week 7 only 6 DD favorite. 2009 has seen 17 sch favorites. Additionally the average line in 2005 was -4.5. The average line in 2009 is -6.1[/QUOTE] Thanks. Good stuff!

[QUOTE=IceTea;7206]Chalk or not, line is same for everyone. Teams are what they are this year, handicap accordingly. I've never understood using "too many favs covered" as an excuse. The bottom line is, you have two teams and a spread. Figure out which one will cover. Each game is individual and unique. That's why I think people who only bet dogs and lose are often just as square as those who only bet favs and lose. I could care less fav or dog, just play the winning side. Is betting favs more "square" than betting dogs? I must have forgot the definition. I thought sharp was getting good lines and betting a high percentage of winners vs. losers. I didn't know it mattered if it was chalk or not. All I care about is the W or the L.[/QUOTE] Nice post. I think some gamblers get caught up in "That is a square play (DD Fav), Fade the public" etc. At the end of the day the only thing that matters is wins & loses.