Thank you very much for this thread.
I'm watching the game, and the first thing I think is why spike the fucking ball with 2 time outs, 30 seconds left, and 1st and 10 from what, the 10 yard line or so?
First of all, you have to score a touchdown.
No ifs, ands or buts.
Second you have not one, but 2 time outs!!!!
Simple math says that you have 33% greater chance, more or less, with 4 tries at a TD than 3 tries. Maybe even better than that if you really try to figure out the equation with plays that advance the ball closer to the goal line without scoring, etc...
With 30 seconds or so, you only have so many plays, regardless of what happens, you need one time-out to stop the clock if someone is stopped in bounds, but the cost of a down in that situation far outweighs the cost of a time-out, and with 2 time-outs, it's not even a question IMO.
I think we saw an equally stupid decision with the 2 pointers in a college game earlier in the weekend.
Sean1 is dead-on in his suggestion.
These teams need a clock-management/game optimizer consultant because a lot of teams have no clue what they are doing in many situations that help determine whether they win or lose the game.
