How do these coaches keep their jobs

Cizzle, you are missing the part that there's about a 40% chance you get a 1st down on 4th and 6. Sure it sucks if you don't get the 1st down, but your odds of winning are far higher if you go.

[QUOTE=sean1;36130]Cizzle, you are missing the part that there's about a 40% chance you get a 1st down on 4th and 6. Sure it sucks if you don't get the 1st down, but your odds of winning are far higher if you go.[/QUOTE] Is 40% the league average? This is not a sarcastic question; I just want to clarify the statistic. Nevertheless, ATL was awful in this particular game extending drives. Maybe next week ATL goes 8/9 on 3rd and 4th down conversions, but in the context of last night's game, for whatever reason, ATL just didn't have it, and Smith had to know that. It's like how Belichek knew last season that his defense didn't have it in the 4Q against Manning, despite that they probably had not given up a 3TD quarter at any other point in the season thus far. Conversely, but for that one NO TD drive, ATL's defense did have it against NO in the 2nd half (forced punt, forced punt, INT, INT, TD). I agree that if ATL goes for it and makes it, ATL's chances of winning dramatically increase, but, in this particular game, at that particular time, converting was a much lower percentage play than 40%, especially considering that NO's defense had played very well in the 2nd half up to that point (forced fumble, punt, punt, punt).

Really interesting article on this. [url]https://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/05/sports/football/05romer.html[/url]

Nice article. Thanks! Anyone who thinks Belichek was going with his instincts in the Indy game....well I've got a good deal on a bridge over the East River.

[QUOTE=Cizzle;36131]Is 40% the league average? This is not a sarcastic question; I just want to clarify the statistic. Nevertheless, ATL was awful in this particular game extending drives. Maybe next week ATL goes 8/9 on 3rd and 4th down conversions, but in the context of last night's game, for whatever reason, ATL just didn't have it, and Smith had to know that. It's like how Belichek knew last season that his defense didn't have it in the 4Q against Manning, despite that they probably had not given up a 3TD quarter at any other point in the season thus far. Conversely, but for that one NO TD drive, ATL's defense did have it against NO in the 2nd half (forced punt, forced punt, INT, INT, TD). I agree that if ATL goes for it and makes it, ATL's chances of winning dramatically increase, but, in this particular game, at that particular time, converting was a much lower percentage play than 40%, especially considering that NO's defense had played very well in the 2nd half up to that point (forced fumble, punt, punt, punt).[/QUOTE] Cizzle - Forcing a team to punt is one thing. Forcing a team to punt after three plays is another thing. Up to that point NO had 12 drives in the game. Only on 3 (25%) of those drives did they stop NO on 3 and outs. The other times NO punted, they also accumulated at least one first down, which basically ends the game for Atlanta in this situation. Based on the way the game had played up to that point, they only had a 25% chance of stopping them. And, after NO took the ball and moved it straight down the field on the prior possession I would argue their chances were even less because NO was more confident in what they were doing. Ironically, I had Atlanta in the first game as well and Smith went for it on fourth down three times and got it on 2 of those 3 downs. Even more ironic, both times he got it it was 4th and 2 and the one time he missed it was, you guessed it, 4th and 6.

Cizzle, Mike Smith, Matt Millen, et al. are missing quite a few things. First if you go for it and don't get it, the game is not over! In fact, your odds of winning are only slightly less than if you had punted. Second, the total on this game was 50 and yards are much easier to get near midfield than they are in the red zone. One analysis I saw listed the odds of conversion as 44%. I'm not sure if he adjusted for the high totaled game or the fact that ATL was the favorite. With the entire field in play, you also might take advantage of a Saints defense cheating up to prevent the first down and throw a bomb over the top for a touchdown or at least a big play. This often works when coaches are ballsy enough to try it (i.e. not Mike Smith). Desmond Howard's game winning 30 yard TD catch on 4th and 1 vs. Notre Dame back in the day comes to mind. Big LOL at basing a decision like this on the fact that the game was low scoring or the fact that they had a poor 3rd down conversion percentage. Small sample alert! Third, you play to *win* the game. The odds of winning in regulation are dramatically higher if you go for it vs. getting the ball back with a minute and no timeouts in which case you are probably just hoping to get to overtime. This isn't the NHL. You don't get a bonus point for taking the game to OT. --------------------------------------- The fact that so many people instinctively get this decision wrong is just human nature. Humans like to grasp on to any slim chance of something good happening as long as they can. It's irrational, but you see it everywhere. You see the same thing at the blackjack table with ploppies standing on 15 vs. 7. It's usually even obvious to them that it's the wrong decision, but by doing so they stay in the game for a few seconds longer than they would if they hit and have a greater than 50% chance of busting out right there.

Cizzle, I don't know if it's exactly 40% but it's likely between 30 and 50%. A 2 point conversion is about 40-45%, but in that case, the D only has to cover 3 yards. ON 4th and 6 from the 40, the D has to cover the whole field to not get beat on one play so I would guess if a team runs their best 6 yard play, the conversion rate is likely between 30 and 50%.

frazier doesnt challenge the incomplete pass at the 3 but challenges the obvious td? must be trained by childress

If given the option of going on every 4th down or punting on every 4th down, going is the clear winner.