How much are Star NFL QBs worth in the Line?

How much are Star NFL QBs worth in the Line? You hear it all the time. No NFL non QB is worth more than a point. Key start qbs are worth only 3 points. The Publc over reacts to this information, you should look to bet on the scrub QB team, when they lose their QB star. THis might have been decent advice in 1985, but it's usually terrible advice in 2012, unless you get an extra touchdown in the line. Of course, it DOES depend on how good the BACKUP qb is, but guess what? Almost EVERY backup qb in the NFL is awful. AWFUL. In this pass happy league, journeymen QBs and rookies simple cannot play at any level. The Steeler/Raven game is the best evidence I can give of how valuable a qb REALLY is. Pit was Laying -5 hosting Baltimore with Big Ben the Qb on the look ahead line. THis line dropped to -3-125 when he had to leave the MNF game with an injury, but was still expected to play. As soon as he was ruled out, and absolute feeding frenzy on Baltimore broke out. It went to pk, it went to BAlt-2.5, it paused, then it went THROUGH the 3, and Balt currently stands at -3.5. That's a 9 NINE point move. Now, you might argue that line move is ludicrous, but no one has yet headed to the window to bet Bryon LEftwich Plus 3.5........ Further, these aren't the squares betting, it's all sharps betting (althought some of them no doubt were gobbling up Balt knowing it would move so much). Ludicrous you say? Well..... Peyton Manning's Colts ALWAYS won 12 games. Without him, they won2. The Bears with Cutler (who isn't even very good) win 3/4 of their games. WIthout him, they lose. Even going back to John Elway in Denver, Denver went from a solid playoff team to a bottom of the NFL team whenever he was hurt. I have to admit, I'll likely be on the Steelers this week plus 4. But it will likely lose........

You alluded to it, but I'll spell it out: the league is more dependent on quarterback play than it used to be. It means injuries to other players are worth less. Subjectively, some have said younger quarterbacks are finding success more quickly because they haven't had to unlearn playing QB in the NFL the "old" way. I haven't heard that so much lately, though, because Cam Newton has regressed. Byron Leftwich has been around, but maybe that's actually a negative. Their backup is Charlie Batch, who is essentially a mobile version of Leftwich. The Ravens' defense isn't what it once was, although it is interesting they didn't look past the Raiders to this game. (Or perhaps the Raiders are so bad that scoring 55 isn't so bad.) The under has also been pounded. I'm hoping for over 38' but even if it is still 40, I'll probably take a flyer on that this weekend. I think there's more value there than Pittsburgh +4.

It may be an outdated way of thinking but I always look to go against the over-reaction of an injury in any sport. Now starting QB is probably the one exception, but in this spot I think Pitt +3.5, 4 is the right side.

Fezz and Friends ... Is there a mixed message here? After reading all the info on the PIT/BAL game for Sunday and the influence +/- on the importance of Big Ben's inability to play this week how can Fezz say: [B][I]"I have to admit, I'll likely be on the Steelers this week plus 4. But it will likely lose........ " [/I][/B] Followed up with: [B][I]434 Pit 1h +3 1 weight PARLAY 434 pit 1h +3 with UN 20 1 weight. (Still can find 20.5, but 20 ok) PARLAY 434 PIt 3.5 with UN 40.5 1 weight (OK to play at 40) [/I][/B] [I][B]Plus a 4 unit play on PIT in the game. [/B][/I] Just trying to understand ... clarification please.

It's a good play in theory, but when viewed subjectively, it smells funny. It is hard to ignore theory.

I'm just commenting on the silliness of the old school Jurassic Park Cappers saying "Big Ben is worth 3.5 points". THat's nonsense. He's worth 6 points at least. And the MArket knows it. BUT..... IN THE 1st game after the injury the REST OF THE TEAM usually plays out of their minds. So....the qb change is worth maybe 4.5 points the FIRST game, 6+ points after. Pit Was -3.5 vs. BAlt. THat mean Pit should be +1 or so. So we bet Pit +3.5. However, anyone who 'reset' this line to pk'm,is in fossil land thinking people would rather have Pit pk with Sandwich vs. Pit -3-120 with Big Ben

This is an interesting topic and I would love to learn more about how to determine how much a player is worth. Fezz is saying Ben is worth 6 points. How is this calculated...and how can I determine this for other players? If we use the betting market as our guide, we are assuming that the market is efficient. But the betting market, just like the stock market, is not efficient. If it was then why would we bet any side in a game? Chad millman at espn insider has been writing about this during the season and has a millman player index, which is a decent guide. I'm not sure how these are determined if we do not know the capability of the backup at each position. Backup QBs can be average, or terrible, or better than some starters. Kurt Warner, Tony Romo, Aaron Rodgers were all backup QBs at one point in their careers. Then again Caleb Hanie was a backup too. If we all adjust our lines based on how the betting market reacts to a player injury and use that as our benchmark, then how can we possibly ever find value in a line. PITT performed well in the first 4 games of 2010 when Big Ben served his suspension for "allegedly" raping a college chick in a bar. Dennis Dixon and Charlie Batch went 3-1 during that span. They did not fill up the box score or anything but did manage to win 3 games. The one loss was to Balt @ home 17-14 with Batch starting. Presumably, Leftwich is better than Batch otherwise Batch would be the #2. My inclination is that Leftwich is just a mediocre QB but is he really a 6 point downgrade from Roethlisberger. I feel it should be less but I cannot prove it and am trying to learn how. If anyone can provide a solid way of calculating the pointspread value of player I would be very interested to hear.

So according to the MNF line move Alex Smith is worth 3 points? I find this hard to believe and I think it is another overreaction by the betting market. This guy can't be worth more than .5 to 1.5 points in a line. He has had a decent season, but is really an average starting QB. He is helped by the 49ers awesome defense. The average OFF starting field position for SF is the 29 yd line. 9th best in NFL. CHI is #1 at 31 yd line.

I mentioned this in the other thread, but to me basic strategy says to anticipate the total falling all day and to take the over at post. Of course, I was also on the over last night but got flat after Fezz said to go under :)