How often does getting the absolute best number matter?

How often does getting the absolute best number matter? Does anyone have any information on how often games land on or near the closing number? Meaning if I get USC(ex.) -3.5, now it's at -2.5 how often does that 1 point really matter....If we're on the right side how often does it land on 3? Thanks in advance! Nipsy

getting the right number can win you 5-10% more plays over the course of the season...would u rather be 60% or 65%

Might be a dumb question, but... [QUOTE=larryphelps;27752]getting the right number can win you 5-10% more plays over the course of the season...would u rather be 60% or 65%[/QUOTE] if getting the best number is so important, why wouldn't everyone just bet halftimes and play accordingly. So often the differences in the number can be huge. So as an example if you liked the Chargers Monday -4.5, but you waited until halftime then you could have them at +6.5 (just a guesstimate) for the game, why wouldn't you just do that? If you don't get the first half that you like, then just lay off....??

You MUST get good numbers NO time to explain this, but SD -3 MNF was a great bet before the game started, but SD +7 at halftime was a terrible bet (SD 2h-7). Screw 65% going to 60%.... more likely 55% going to 50%..........playing right sides, wrong numbers

It matters 16% of the time. Ace ace said so. Funny thing is, he was saying it ONLY matters 16% of the time to justify playing a bad number. Can't make it up. From my experience, 5 to 10 sounds low. I do love ace ace, a one of a kind guy and talented. Not taking a good number is just donkey. That's the one thing every pro has in common. If you are playing as recreation, wtf you're going to do more donkey things than taking one of fezziks picks after it moved a bit, anyway.

Makes sense, both mathematical and common.

Speaking of donkey's... how about if said donkey misses the best number on a couple, would teasing those two games to below the release number be considered donkey behavior? Nipsy

I would say yes because the payout is not the same. It's like betting Any Craps on the comeout roll.

Discipline is very important, not to take [B]bad numbers [/B]is probably more important than worrying you missed out on a team by a 1/2 pt or one pt.... Eg, the Patriots were PK on Sunday night, I like the side and still played it Monday at -1 -115, but now it's -3, you should pass on New England, (its great if you like the Jets)I would not tease them to +3 either, its too small of a margin, when they were at PK and tease them to +7 was a great bet IMO.

Teasing or buying points is the ultimate donkfest IMO A guy releases NE -1. You miss it and it moves to NE -3. BUying NE down to -1-150 or teasing NE to +3 (which essentially is a NE +3-250 bet) is god awful, go play Keno bad..... The obvious reason is that it should be obvious that NE -3+100 is superior to the other plays.......AND NE -3 is clearly getting to the party too late. I have to say I make almost no bets all day Friday. The good ones have been taken out, and it is just a matter of getting good injury or weather info. and waiting for the public to bet a game too far on game day.