How to anticipate line moves?

How to anticipate line moves? How does one anticipate line moves? What tools do you use? I've just been getting crushed on wrong side of line moves lately and want to know how I can get better. All and any advice would be appreciated.

Take a look at pinnacle. The weighted juice is a good indication of where the line is moving. It seems like vegas is few hours behind pinnacle. For example, if you can get 3 or 3.5 on troy, good play: Wed 1/6 265 Troy +2.5 -109 +116 04:00 PM 266 Central Michigan -2.5 -101

Thanks, dickey, I like to look at pinny often. But how do you anticipate even Pinny's line moves? After all, when I grabbed Iowa +4.5 a couple days ago, Pinny had it at 4.5 as well. It closed at 6.

wow my guys are already down to 1.5

For example, with this Iowa move. When this line moved to 5.5, how do I know not to buy the .5 point and instead, anticipate the move to 6?

You know not to buy the half point because assuming you mean buying it from +5.5 -110 to +6 -120, it's never a good idea to buy up onto the 6 in CFB. As far as how to predict the line move, there's no easy answer and the market is full of head fakes and reverse moves. In the month between the line opening and closing, it opened +3.5, was bet up to +4 (reached +4.5 on Pinnacle for a bit), back down to +3.5, and then about 4 days before gameday began the slow rise to +6. Someone looking to bet Iowa might have grabbed a stray +4.5 when they saw the market dropping from +4 to +3.5 and patted themselves on the back, only to find they could have gotten +6 on game day. The simplest concise answer is to have as many outs as possible and watch line movements carefully, but even that still leaves you susceptible to head fakes.

Thanks, skrtelfan. I myself did grab 4.5 and felt good about it a couple of days ago. The line opened at 3.5 was bet down to 3 at one point early after the lines came out. So, when it got back up to 4.5, I thought there's no way it'll go any higher, let alone get all the way to 6! The public was definitely pro-Ga. Tech here, but in no way, shape, or form did I see this avalanche of cash on Ga. Tech once the line hit 4.5.

Also, for example, OS said Texas game would close at 3. How do you get to that conclusion? It was up to 5! Now it has inched its way all the way back down to 3.5 nearing 3. Looks to be a great call, OS.

The Texas line hasn't really moved much on Pinnacle since Old School's post. He posted on 12/18 that the line would close +3 and Pinnacle was dealing +5 -123 that day. They now have +3.5 -101, which is certainly no worse than +5 -123. and I think the +3.5 -101 is a bit better, Removing the vig from Pinnacle's pull down menu, they have +3.5 -101 as the equivalent of +5 -123, but I think they're overvaluing both the 4 and 5, the 5 more so than the 4. The 3 isn't worth as much in CFB as it is in the NFL, but it's still a significant drop from +3.5 to +3, so if the line does get to +3 as predicted, that'll be a more significant move than the move since Old School's post to the present.

If you could anticipate all line moves, you'd be a billionaire. If you beat the closing line consistently you'll make money. Basically you are asking how do you handicap which is the right side. One method is good handicapping. Some can do it, others can't. Other things to look for: The direction Pinnacle is leaning Numbers that matter - for instance if you like a team -6.5 and have no idea which way it moves, play it because -7 is a lot worse and -6 is only a bit better. On the other hand if you like a team +6.5, wait cause +7 is a lot better and +6 is not a huge deal. Public teams - teams such as the yankees, red sox, notre dame, Cowboys, Giants, USC, etc will oftne get hit by the public at game time Public games - big games tend to see the favorite and over hit near game time