I completely disagree with Fez on the market

I completely disagree with Fez on the market I think we all know there would be ulterior motives behind someone who runs a site such as this not wanting to post losing plays for fear of losing business. Those points aside: The NFL market is NOT "tight": NFL dogs are covering the spread at a 53.8% clip...this is the highest we've seen since 2006, and is the 2nd highest since 2002. In addition, dogs are covering the spread by an average of 0.83 points in all games. Again, this is higher than any season since 2006. 2007 was a margin of 0.68 2008 was a margin of 0.65 2009 was a margin of 0.80 Also, Overs are hitting at a 57% rate, the highest percentage in well over 20 years. Games are going over the total by an average of 1.90 points... only 2 other years in the last 20 have seen a larger point differential. So I'm sick of hearing how "tight" the market is. It's OK to say: -You aren't reading the games well -Your formulas are not predicting accurately -Your game is "off" right now It is NOT OK to say: -The market is tight -No one is winning Because both are flat out incorrect. There are a large number of professional/service (as you are) winning, as well as guys on forums winning this year. I see no fewer or greater number than average. It is also apparent that the market is wide open if you are good. I'm sure there are people smarter than I am who can chime in and comment on the "tightness" or lack thereof with the NFL market.

Yep, easiest NFL in years..

You are correct sir....certainly a lot more correct than Fezz and thanks for the post!

for whatever reason many( not all) of the prof guys who have been around are "tighter" this year they dont make as many bets or give out as many plays as in the past .. they seem to be highly selective and not as free wheeling as in past years..almost playing not to lose instead of playing to win and just rolling with thier instincts which over time have proven to be very good. I think the lines are BEATABLE if just go with what we are seeing week after week... the only other option is just not BET or make any picks at all , and thats a very fun option

So you expect dogs and overs (which are inversely correlated) to continue hitting at the rate they have been hitting all season? One measure of market "tightness" for many handicappers is the discrepancy between their lines and the market price. If Fezzik says he saw 5 point discrepancies early on and only 1-2 point differences now, then the market is significantly "tighter" for him.

[QUOTE=IrishTim;34047]So you expect dogs and overs (which are inversely correlated) to continue hitting at the rate they have been hitting all season? One measure of market "tightness" for many handicappers is the discrepancy between their lines and the market price. If Fezzik says he saw 5 point discrepancies early on and only 1-2 point differences now, then the market is significantly "tighter" for him.[/QUOTE] I could believe that if the "5 point discrepancies" were leading him to a significant number of wins, but they were not. So its like I said earlier, his formulas are not predicting accurately. That does not mean the market is tight. His numbers (save totals from another guy's model) were not accurate early and are not accurate now, and that is no measure of market tightness.

The people in my candie store are having a banner year. They are loving the tight lines while at the same time I'm thinking about an early vacation.

WOW! I have to say this is an impressive thread. As someone who does little handicapping himself (it's called owning a Salon,working, landlord, ect) I follow others whom I have followed for years. ZERO of them are anywhere near "respectable", most either post here or for sure check in here, and you know who you are. So, now eyes are wide open, and it seems pissing & moaning about "markets" is very suspect at best. I'm looking for other "Sharps" for their 10 cents. Notice I ask "Sharps", not you wannabee's!

Maybe we should be jamming 2 weights on the OVER on the underdog's team total at Greek and Bodog from here on out. Or do we not think this trend will continue?

I know little about football lines and I could be way off base here but the correlation between Steve saying that the lines are tight and because of this his selection are not winning and others claiming that this is an easy year seems easily explained. My brain is fried so I'm struggling to get this right. Steve wins most every year. He's not doing so hot on the picks this year. Other claim this year is easy. Do those players win every year? An idiot can get a good winning percentage 3 years out of 20. It doesn't mean that Steve's system is flawed, It may not be working this year but if it has worked 17 years out of 20 or what ever number of years he has played, his system isn't wrong Couldn't it just be a set of circumstances that allow the idiots to win and the winners to lose in a given year? If your system didn't work last year, but it is working this year with a minor tweak, it is likely your system is still bad but you are "lucking" into wins. Then again what the hell do I know, I don't need a system to win at the sport I primary bet.