"I'm a realist, and I'm an honest person.... Beating THESE lines when juggling 14 plates IS damn impossible."
Boom - there is your problem. It is not my fault nor anyone else's fault that you are juggling "14 plates". But you can't be honest and say that you can't find a single person this year who is hitting above 54.5%. Come on man!
"Blah blah blah talk about how 'great' everyone is doing is fine, but make them put their picks in a public place, and all of a sudden it's tough, tough sledding to hit 53%, much less 56%."
Are you kidding? Sorry if the pressure is too great for you posting plays for all to see, but there are plenty of guys all around beating 53 and 56% on forums this year. Maybe come up for air and poke your nose around, they are all over the place.
"In all seriousness, I had 12 witnesses in my Tuesday group hear me say after the 'new flag rules' that NFL totals over were the way to go 6 weeks ago, so I was 'on' that."
So if you were so 'on' that, why were you not posting any of those plays? You don't need a time machine, you simply need to notice a trend or tendency before the "average joe" and take advantage of it. It's not that complicated. Apparently you admit you noticed it, and I hope you took advantage of it your own betting, but you definitely did not share many of those with us.
"1. Blindly bet ON every NFL dog
2. Blindly bet ON every NFL over starting 10/1"
The point is not blindly betting on such obvious dogs and overs, the point is, the market is beatable and anyone who puts in the effort and is skillful enough can beat it. Most are not skillful enough. Some who are, may not have the time to dedicated to get it done. But there are and there have been (all season long) advantages and openings to beat the NFL market this season.
"I am surprised how many guys making a lot less are cutting in line to argue with me on things like
1. The betting marketplace
2. Market efficiency
3. What is possible."
No offense my friend, I respect what you did in the Hilton contest 2 years running, but I don't know if you've always been like this to boost your ego or if this is something recent, but...
It is entirely proper to argue with you on this topic, because what you are concluding makes no sense at all. The NFL betting marketplace this season is beatable. It is possible. So for you to argue that its not, and that you've seen "guys privately email me how great they are doing. But whenever I get their plays BEFORE the games start....50-54% is the win rate." I mean, come on. Because a few guys who email you ultimately can't beat 54%, and because you can't this season, no one can?
Like I said, I'll be glad to name pros and amateurs on message boards who are easily beating these numbers this season you speak of. I didn't mention them because I thought someone with your exposure to the betting world would be aware of them. The list is lengthy.
I like hearing your opinions on things because you have more experience than I do (at least I assume you do) and I am glad that we can have this civil discourse in this manner.
There are some people in the world, who once they accomplish something in life, like to claim that most others in their field are subpar and lacking, in order to make their status seem greater. I'm not sure if that's what is going on here or not. I simply know for a fact that you can't be "honest" if you go on record saying:
"I have YET to find ANYONE who is even 'good', if you define 'good' as hitting above 54.5% of their plays."
Maybe your "Tuesday Group" is not as elite as you thought, I don't know, I have no idea who is in it. I just know for a 100% fact that beating these numbers is entirely possible and it's being done in message boards (both large and small) and in toutworld.
To say its not is unbelievable!
