I completely disagree with Fez on the market

more swings and misses in this thread than a full season of at bats for dave kingman.

[QUOTE=members;34133]In any part of the "betting business" you must evolve. Sure there are things we all do that net winners year after year but in the end its the information that wins. The blanket statements by Fez are plain wrong. Another thing I have posted is being a "winning tout" is much, much harder than being a winning bettor. There are a plethora of reasons-the main one being they must post winners early in the day-missing information that can effect a play... or not. For the guys who want a winning NFL tout-Look no further than Fairway Jay. 42-18 this year. I think he is beating the NFL? Sample Size: Since 2005 when he started with sports memo 318-259 55%. So I agree with Iced Tea and Johnny. Same statement, different thread- Fez, you are not looking hard enough... Or you are not being honest with the forum on your personal betting versus what you have posted here? No matter what the case, I have others that send me plays-every week this year. Not only are they winning, the % is a lot higher than the 54% fez has not seen.[/QUOTE] Great post Members. People win betting....Period. Yeah and I agree something is fishy with Fezz's posting (or often NON posting) of plays.

[QUOTE=Twoniner;34158]So Members is lying and Fairway Jay's record is make believe. GOT IT.[/QUOTE] Care to guess what Members neglected to post? Maybe that Fairway Jay is 54-57-5, -9.55u in CFB this year. Or maybe that despite his stellar NFL record, Jay is 524-510, -16.20u for all sports in 2010. The binomial distribution is a funny thing. If you take 10 to 12 cappers each in 5 to 6 sports, you'll tend to get one or two subcases that appear outstanding. Now is Jay a 70% long-term NFL capper? Of course not. Is he a 53.4% capper (what he was before this season)? Probably close, most likely within the range 52.5% to 54.5%.

I have been following this thread from post #1. I guess I just don't get it. If you don't adjust to the market, you don't win. If you do, and know how to, you do win. If Fez or others can't do that, maybe it is time to Punt... And I do say that with all due respect..

computerbob is such a bummer towards the chosen one capper du jour. those pesky longer term samples are so unflatteriung to the tout business

Isnt it common knowledge that every sport gets "tighter" or tougher to beat the further into the season you are?

[QUOTE=joelshitshow;34134]I am sure that all of his profit, as well as the offsetting of his losses, are from in-game betting. That thing is a cash cow, and I am looking forward to being at the M Jan 2-4 so I can get in on it.[/QUOTE] with all due respect - your odds are slim to none on you winning at the M

The funny thing about this thread....... 1. The M. I'm sure several people have made more money than I betting at the M this year. Maybe even 12 people. Maybe. 2. The plate juggling is a necessary evil for almost every competent person. a) Most touts juggle plates to maximize earning sales. b) Most bettors juggle plates to maximize earnings. Sure, it eats up ENOURMOUS time for me to do in-running wagering, get down on RAS baskets, ER baskets, track wagers, play rogue numbers, follow others in baskets, do a little of my own baskets research run around and bomb in contest picks, week futures, teasers and parlays here, there, everywhere. I would be FAR more successful picking winners in a closet or basement following 1 or 2 sports and just realizing how hurt Ben's foot in the Boot is. However, this is a horrific use of my time, I'd leave so much on the table like WSU +17 and +16 in the Apple Cup, GOYs at the Hilton, etc. All the research in the world in the NFL isn't going to find me one bet that good. 3. SOMEONE give me ANY of these 'winning' guys who can hit 55% and start posting their next 500 plays....... GOING FORWARD!! Good luck with that! 4. Fairway Jay. FASCINATING TOPIC. Clearly one of THE best in NFL ATS selections. YET......listen to on air segments and Jay is one of the world's greatest sandbaggers out there, he is literally stream of consciousnous, all over the place, at times even quoting -3 fav's as +3 dogs, and getting line moves inverted. Yet, his picks are stellar. I attribute it to the man being literally JUICED IN or has identified some unknown cappers with some ridiculously good info. AND ALL THE POWER TO HIM! He has kicked butt at the NFL for years now, frankly I don't care if he if buying his picks off EBAY from a What's Happening Actor, he doesn't have to explain it, winning is everything, and winning he has done. But even given this, gimme Jay UN 54% ATS going forward in the NFL......limit bet please!

It's not a bunch of people making negative EV bets to guarantee themselves a small win? We need this thing to go mainstream so it will be.

?? [QUOTE=Fezzik;34174] I'd leave so much on the table like WSU +17 and +16 in the Apple Cup, GOYs at the Hilton, etc. All the research in the world in the NFL isn't going to find me one bet that good.[/QUOTE] Just curious what this is?? Thanks.