I completely disagree with Fez on the market

I think it's a bet that was made in the summer on a look-ahead line. WSU +17 is an example of how good a bet that can be made. Of course it can go very much the other way. I know guys who had Texas minus double digits vs Tex A/M last week going the same route. Overall the results are very good for the investment of time and money, even with the lemons thrown in.

And your Agenda Is? [QUOTE=ComptrBob;34167]Care to guess what Members neglected to post? Maybe that Fairway Jay is 54-57-5, -9.55u in CFB this year. Or maybe that despite his stellar NFL record, Jay is 524-510, -16.20u for all sports in 2010. The binomial distribution is a funny thing. If you take 10 to 12 cappers each in 5 to 6 sports, you'll tend to get one or two subcases that appear outstanding. Now is Jay a 70% long-term NFL capper? Of course not. Is he a 53.4% capper (what he was before this season)? Probably close, most likely within the range 52.5% to 54.5%.[/QUOTE] The thread was talking about Fez blanket statement "no one can beat the NFL". There are plenty. Again, as I have stated for years-I pick the best I can find in different sports. I normally do not bet them blindly, but... if the things I do line up I bet. That's me. Is Fairway Jays NFL part of my mix? Try big! As for Fez wanting someone to post 500 plays? Come on now. If you found a good NFL capper-tout whatever you want to call him-the average year would have 50-60 Plays. So you want a sample size of 10 years? Again, thread is talking about NFL. On a side note fez, I will have a mutual friend tap you on the shoulder next time he see's you to also tell you-you are wrong-we have another guy at 60% the last two years. You may not believe me-I know you will believe him-and no we are not sharing.

[QUOTE=Fezzik;34174] 3. SOMEONE give me ANY of these 'winning' guys who can hit 55% and start posting their next 500 plays....... GOING FORWARD!! Good luck with that! [/QUOTE] this it what is flying over everyone's head here. taken a step further, try any past season's winning tout going forward (vs. modern day market) over a HYPOTHETICAL infinite sample size. there is no denying that you have to evolve new strategies to win...that is just plain common sense. every large rational market will weed out most inefficiencies over time. imo, the nfl sports betting market has evolved to a point where it would be nearly impossible to pick >52.3% mid-week vs widely available #'s given an infinite sample size.

Let's look at it a different way. There are 13-16 games/week in what might be the most bet sport of them all. So the most action is on the fewest events. Of COURSE it is going to be the hardest one to be successful in long term.

[QUOTE=joelshitshow;34191]Let's look at it a different way. There are 13-16 games/week in what might be the most bet sport of them all. So the most action is on the fewest events. Of COURSE it is going to be the hardest one to be successful in long term.[/QUOTE] Agree...Checkers vs 16 yr olds much easier

The Irony here I'm THE GUY WHO hit a documented 65% over a 2 years period in the Hilton Contest, 170 plays! Ok, soft lines. "Only 62% vs. market numbers". So Mr. Members could use MY results to laugh at my feelings......of course he would have to ignore a bunch of other Fezzik data points.......

I am not ignoring your results. They were great-even by NON-WA standards. I am saying the NFL can be beaten-55% and higher. If I am wrong, correct me. You stated I'm the first to agree that my pure handicapping game is not my best suit, but I have YET to find ANYONE who is even 'good', if you define 'good' as hitting above 54.5% of their plays. If I am cherry picking I have 3 guys-groups who I get plays for last 2 NFL seasons that are above 60% against WA #s. FJAy is one. It is also widely known that the ruskies had a phenomenal year last year in both the NCAA and NFL-65%, tons of bets. This year-NCAA is still OK-NFL has been superb. So I guess its a matter of interpretation: I think your statement is wrong, as I have 3 sets of NFL plays that say so-all above 54.5% I am pretty sure they are not the only 3 who have betting success in the NFL-or else I am really lucky to have found the only three in the world:D

[QUOTE=members;34188]The thread was talking about Fez blanket statement "no one can beat the NFL". There are plenty. Again, as I have stated for years-I pick the best I can find in different sports. I normally do not bet them blindly, but... if the things I do line up I bet. That's me. Is Fairway Jays NFL part of my mix? Try big! As for Fez wanting someone to post 500 plays? Come on now. If you found a good NFL capper-tout whatever you want to call him-the average year would have 50-60 Plays. So you want a sample size of 10 years? Again, thread is talking about NFL. On a side note fez, I will have a mutual friend tap you on the shoulder next time he see's you to also tell you-you are wrong-we have another guy at 60% the last two years. You may not believe me-I know you will believe him-and no we are not sharing.[/QUOTE] real hard to throw computer bob under the bus for his comments. the guy evokes binomial distribution as a probable cause for someone's successful subset and points to an overall mediocre 2010 large set as evidence of this. seems to me his agenda is to try to pound some logic into people's heads. i would detect an "agenda" from someone that takes statements out of context and then runs a wild tangent on them......

Not running wild Thread is about winning NFL touts etc. Fairay is a winning NFL capper. The sample size is large enough for Bob or Fez to have to agree. But no-Bob goes off on the rest of his record. I did not bring up his other sports as I do not follow them(except his golf) What happens in all forums is exactly what Bob has done here. What does the rest of Jays record have to do with his winning in the NFL for 7 years? I answered what I thought was the theme here-Can anyone win in the NFL? I am pretty confident I did that pretty well... Then, guys ignore the point and change the argument...they just keep changing the discussion. Its like the kindergarten game where one whispers something to the next and 15 people down the line you get the weather in NY instead of -Fez, you are wrong I have the proof.

2 years vs. lifetime I've hit 60% in a sport for 2 years several times over the years. But you don't know that you're going to do it in advance and you're not doing it in other sports. I've had a lousy college football year, 2nd worst I've ever had, but am doing pretty well in the NFL. Yet my confidence level heading in would have been much higher in college. Whenever someoone is saying "I'm 62% in this sports over the past 2 years" there's a reason that they're not saying "over the past 3 years". 60% in a sport for a couple of years is eminently doable. Knowing in advance that it is going to happen and knowing that the run is over is extremely hard. 55% for multiple sports combined for a couple of years is extremely hard.