I don't think I will endorse any outside handicappers going forward

I don't think I will endorse any outside handicappers going forward Would love to be proved wrong, but the market is just too tough right now. The handicappers that will be able to hit 53% are just so few and far between, that the ones that do become virtually impossible to get down with. RAS is the poster child. Tonight "over" 130.5 on Creighton. WINNER!! But I'm sure 95% of his subscribers either lost or pushed, and most lost......... I'm a huge fan of Edward and what he does, but he is just too well known. And I'm partly to blame. If I find someone else like him, I need to "zip it".

I feel the play was loaded in his system at 130.5 but his people most likely hit the game 2-3 seconds before the release or in a mere coincidence (large albeit) another group hit the OVER just moments before the release. When the release actually hit the screen was pretty much painted with a solid 131. Only the really tired/slow were still sitting on 130.5 and a good number of shops had already went to 131.5. I feel lucky that I pushed to be honest. I will be real surprised if Edward counts this as a win on his record.

I have to respectfully disagree. I had another post a few weeks ago in that as a subsriber I already know I'll be "x-y" on the results. Actually, that is too rough because sometimes I get a "x-y+z" when I play a first half that wins and his full game doesn't. First off, even I got to say and I hope that 95% of his subscribers did not lose or even push this game. I got 130.5 and I would love to believe I'm not in a 5% group that got that. No doubt I either have or will be clipped on a game like this if I miss but it is a shoulder shrug. His record says these are worth playing 1 point higher than his release number----probably still win at 2 points higher don't you based on his record? Heck, he gave you 2 winners tonight. Good Grief.

[QUOTE=Skeeter;39203]I have to respectfully disagree. I had another post a few weeks ago in that as a subsriber I already know I'll be "x-y" on the results. Actually, that is too rough because sometimes I get a "x-y+z" when I play a first half that wins and his full game doesn't. [B]But what about when you get "x-y-z" for those times that a first half loses? You can't argue "x-y+z" and not take into account "x-y-z".[/B] First off, even I got to say and I hope that 95% of his subscribers did not lose or even push this game. I got 130.5 and I would love to believe I'm not in a 5% group that got that. [B]You can believe it or not but you were probably in a 10% or less pool of subscribers that got 130.5.[/B] No doubt I either have or will be clipped on a game like this if I miss but it is a shoulder shrug. His record says these are worth playing 1 point higher than his release number----probably still win at 2 points higher don't you based on his record? Heck, he gave you 2 winners tonight. [B]I don't understand this? How did he give 2 winners? Because the game middled if you tried? The first half (if you played it) also lost, so this statement about 2 winners confuses me. [/B] Good Grief.[/QUOTE] Answers/Comments bolded in message above.

Burger, I wasn't aware of the move but my bet is at 5 Dimes for crying out loud and they're one of the faster books out there aren't they? I bat .500 there at best and no big move is missing this place on the screen. If I really am in the 5% that won this I'll still be surprised but fair enough I wasn't aware of that. I already know there isn't time to hit another book so wherever I am I'm willing to hit a point off the release number and then hope like hell double zero doesn't hit on the wheel. I can't believe his group hits these totals 3 seconds before release. I touched on this before what a breach that would be although there are no rules on this of course. The whole business RAS has is leveraged to the results as it is. He can bet Over 130 hope it "only" moves to 132 and release over 132. He can win his bet and we all lose or he can stop betting it and give us the over 130 and have us win. Or he can do both and hope we all win but there is no way he should be doing this in the same time frame as his release and I don't believe he is. I miss because my fellow subscribers are faster than I am or I screw up scrolling. Yes, I was just saying it is a middle if one played under the peak total. Definitely you are correct. x-y+z-n....but I make the calls on those. I play over 67 on his plays that are over 68 at sharp books that is my call now not Right Angle's. Fez's is hanging him out to dry and he won a play..but I understand we all didn't get it. He misses the total yesterday by 70 points and we don't win. I have to admit I'm more concerned by that handicapping than the half point winner.

I have said it before and will say it again - lines have gotten sharp enough that no one is hitting 54% on WA lines. I can't even find anyone at 53% this year over 100 picks on full game lines. RAS isn't there. Fezzik isnt there. I don't know of anyone there and 5 years ago there were many people over 53%. You can't really line shop anymore. Everyone has the same line virtually all the time. Teasers are -110 at best, -120 a lot of places. Correlated parlays are out. Moving money is a royal pain in the ass meaning bonuses are basically out. It's probably still easy to make a few grand each year, but it's really really hard for those looking to make six figures. I can honestly say right now, I do not feel I have any substantial long term edge. It's the first time in years I have felt that way. Sure I can find a rogue line here and there and I can grab a bonus here and there, but those are offset by the occasional stiff. I would venture to guess for the guys playing six figure bank rolls that those who made 100+% 5 years ago are happy to make 20% and those who were making 50% are probably lucky to make 10% these days. I'm working on scraping 1st half data so I can do some work on second halves based on first half pace and stats. My guess is some advantages (which will dry up) can be had there but if I don't find anything 54-55% there (Since everyone is -110) I'm out and working on other things as investments. -Sean

[QUOTE=Skeeter;39205]Burger, I wasn't aware of the move but my bet is at 5 Dimes for crying out loud and they're one of the faster books out there aren't they? [B]I'm not trying to be mean or vicious, but the above statement is pretty embarrassing. 5Dimes is probably the most square onscreen book in the business. I have lost numerous accts there because of my pounding their snail pace moving lines.[/B] I bat .500 there at best and no big move is missing this place on the screen. If I really am in the 5% that won this I'll still be surprised but fair enough I wasn't aware of that. [B]I had a slew of accts up and refreshed all of them 3-7 seconds before release and they were all a solid 131. Meaning before the release the lines were already refreshed and the game in question was a solid 131.[/B] I already know there isn't time to hit another book so wherever I am I'm willing to hit a point off the release number and then hope like hell double zero doesn't hit on the wheel. [B] I can hit 3 accounts by hand normally, 2 if I have a typo....my slowest acct started at 131.[/B] I can't believe his group hits these totals 3 seconds before release. I touched on this before what a breach that would be although there are no rules on this of course. The whole business RAS has is leveraged to the results as it is. [B](I won't comment on the above as it would be pure speculation.)[/B] He can bet Over 130 hope it "only" moves to 132 and release over 132. He can win his bet and we all lose or he can stop betting it and give us the over 130 and have us win. Or he can do both and hope we all win but there is no way he should be doing this in the same time frame as his release and I don't believe he is. I miss because my fellow subscribers are faster than I am or I screw up scrolling. Yes, I was just saying it is a middle if one played under the peak total. Fez's is hanging him out to dry and he won a play.. [B]I didn't take it as Fez hanging him out to dry at all, if fact I made the same similiar type post at BT and the legions of mindless robots that would drink koolaid if RAS offered it to them are roasting me like I killed the guy's mother right now for bringing up the fact that the play was not w/a at 130.5 at release.[/B] but I understand we all didn't get it. He misses the total yesterday by 70 points and we don't win. I have to admit I'm more concerned by that handicapping than the half point winner.[/QUOTE] [B]I agree with the above statement. For example, I have a hard time understanding why on 1/27 a play was released of UC Irvine/CS Northridge OVER 151.5 and then a mere 9 days later in a rematch of the same 2 teams UC Irvine/CS Northridge a play was released playing UNDER 152.5. How can a play go from an OVER and 9 days later change from not only passing on replaying the OVER (if that is what his model says to play) but instead going above and beyond all the way to playing the UNDER? This is hard to explain or comprehend IMO. Both plays lost incidentally.[/B]

JC! I am hitting right at 58% on 189 Bets this year. Please don't send me a Memo on this "Can't Beat the Spread" crap.. The market right now is super soft IMO..especially totals..

I am a pretty frequent bettor and I got to tell you if you want to tell me 5 Dimes is moving their lines at a snail's pace you must be pretty damm fast. No doubt I have caught them on many things but it is not the first place I'm looking at to get in front of a line move. I know people got to back me up on this. Sean1 had a list of books that these plays are hard to get which I completely agreed with and this is definitely one of them. I don't know the exact time of the release but I will assume it was 3:06. According to my screen 5 Dimes had 130.5 BEFORE his release. Of course they had to since I bet it there. And my screen says they moved it to 132.5 at 3:06 and 3 seconds. But if I were at the Greek, they had 130.5 and their line history tells me they moved it at 3:06 and 3 seconds. They also had 130.5. And this is where I mostly try to get a bet if I do. Bet Cris which I never bet at for this also had 130.5. And my system says they didn't move it until 3:06 and 37 seconds. What a joke they must be?! Pinnacle a bad place to be betting this as I see they were already at 131. In fact I see they were at 132 even before 3:06. Of course Right Angle and their group bet this Over 129.5 in the morning as I can't believe they would bother to bet this in front of me at 130.5. That would just be stupid of them. I checked Bet Jamaica and they moved to 132 before 3:06. From 130.5 to 132 23 seconds before 3:06. Are all of the time stamps here synchronized so that I can compare them? And if they are is it more than a coincidence that Bet Jamaica moved 1.5 pts before release? If it is the RAS group, that is troubling. Any other reason, what can I do? But I do see 3 major books at 130.5 and moving presumably after his release. These books never even show a 131 around this time. There is a syndicate betting these and it is called RAS subscribers and they move fast. Pinnacle and Bet Jamaica indicate there may be leaks known or unknown to RAS but maybe not. To be honest, I have an out called Legendz and earlier in the year they seemed to tip me to totals he might have as they went off by 2 pts sometimes from 5 Dimes or the Greek in the minutes before release. Why? But I haven't seen that recently so I just dropped it as a source of information. My line history shows me the number was there. However, I want to be clear I have no idea of the accuracy of the information I'm reviewing. If you got 131, you got 131. And if that is what most subscribers got I believe you. That is too bad but it is not an indictment on handicappers or RAS in particular.

[QUOTE=Skeeter;39210]I checked Bet Jamaica and they moved to 132 before 3:06. From 130.5 to 132 23 seconds before 3:06.[/QUOTE] The play was released at 3:05pm PST, not 3:06. As I just responded to Burger's post on my forum, I cannot speak for lines at offscreen sites, but we typically look at Bookmaker, Greek, and Pinnacle when determining release lines, and it was 130.5 at all three at release. Bet Jamaica, 5dimes, Jazz, and several others were at 130.5 as well. Bookmaker 02/08 01:06:50pm #528 Drake 131½ OPENER [B]02/08 02:32:41pm #528 Drake 130½[/B] 02/08 03:05:36pm #528 Drake 132 02/08 03:05:53pm #528 Drake 132½ The Greek 02/08 06:28:30am #528 Drake 130 OPENER 02/08 08:20:53am #528 Drake 131½ 02/08 08:23:07am #528 Drake 131 [B]02/08 03:00:03pm #528 Drake 130½ [/B] 02/08 03:05:44pm #528 Drake 132½ 02/08 03:13:01pm #528 Drake 133 Pinnacle 02/08 06:18:58am #528 Drake 129½ OPENER 02/08 08:20:04am #528 Drake 129½o19 02/08 08:20:14am #528 Drake 131 02/08 02:47:06pm #528 Drake 131u17 [B]02/08 02:58:41pm #528 Drake 131u24[/B] 02/08 03:05:20pm #528 Drake 131u15 5Dimes 02/08 06:29:52am #528 Drake 129½ OPENER 02/08 06:56:20am #528 Drake 130 02/08 08:20:43am #528 Drake 130½ 02/08 08:23:47am #528 Drake 131 [B]02/08 02:58:57pm #528 Drake 130½ [/B] 02/08 03:06:01pm #528 Drake 132½ 02/08 03:25:55pm #528 Drake 133 Jazz 02/08 11:58:23am #528 Drake 131 OPENER [B]02/08 02:58:34pm #528 Drake 130½ [/B] 02/08 03:05:30pm #528 Drake 131 02/08 03:05:50pm #528 Drake 131½ 02/08 03:05:55pm #528 Drake 132