I have a Question About Bet Size/Varying Weights

I have a Question About Bet Size/Varying Weights First of all this is just a discussion and I really do want to learn from it. I bet everything at the same amount because "I Think" that is the right thing to do. I see a lot of people playing 1,2,3,5,10 Units on their plays and I want to know why? Is doing this an advantage in any way? And if so, why? Thank you in advance.

I bet bigger when I feel our edge is bigger.

Remember, there is no wrong answer here. Just a discussion. What Fez said is of course a given. Of course people assign more weight to the games they like the best. But is there really an advantage is doing this? Can any bet have 5 Times, 10 Times, the Edge of a 1 Weight? Is that possible? Maybe 30% more edge tops? So maybe a 1.3 Weight instead of 10 Weight? Thank you for all thoughts..

There's a statistical answer to this, the mechanics of which I've long forgotten. Think of two sliding scales that are inversely proportional: confidence in the bet and risk of ruin. Where the two intersect is your bet size. The trick is figuring out confidence. If you have good power ratings, this is easier to determine (but again the mechanics of which I don't remember). While this is going on, two other points are worthy of consideration: availability of bet, and line move anticipation. Fez will sometimes make a big +EV prop bet only one weight because it is hard to find at a high limit or not widely available. I forget why he does this, although he has explained it. To the other point, if you're blindly betting because you expect a line to move and you're trying to shoot the middle, your bet size is going to be higher because your risk is lower (because you're going to "get flat"). I would love someone to put some real math in this thread.

I regularly bet more than 1 weight when I know that I will be middling but that is another subject altogether. And let me add, this discussion is not about Fez or bets that are not easily attainable. I understand those plays with low limits either in the beginning or all throughout the betting process.. Thanks Joel.

I thought I might get some decent answers here and I am still holding out. I am an Optimist!! I will probably just have some thoughts myself later on why I think it is absurd to lay varying amounts other than 1 Weight and perhaps 1.5 Weight. I have been told that this is not a Pick Site, but one that can teach us. I am holding out hope. Come on Fellas, spill the beans. Why is varying bets a favorable thing to do? I'm a Follower, not a Leader. :))

For the record, my exposure is between 1 and 2% of my bankroll 95% of the time. (The national election was an exception because it was just so obvious to me what was going on.) I figure people who are regularly betting 3% and 4% on 3 and 4 weight bets either like volatility or are using 0.5% of their bankroll as a unit.

I just saw this thread...I'll add my two cents. I appreciate your contributions, BP. I think it is justified to vary the weight of your bets. No question about it. With the spectrum of opportunities that we analyze, if we have any (justifiable) confidence in what we are doing, we have to. A few examples with hypothetical bet amounts: 1. I like a game, been following the team a little, expect a good effort tonight, blah, blah. My est. of prob. of a cover (P(cover)) around 53%; maybe I throw a $100 on it. Let's say $100 is a 1 unit bet. 2. I like an NFL or NBA side, I've had conversations with respected cappers about this play, there is some consensus, I get some reduced juice...P(cover) around 53.5%; 2 Unit bet. 3. I like an NBA or NFL total, similar consensus from some cappers, I shop and make sure I'm getting the best of it...P(cover) around 54%; 3 Unit bet. 4. CBB Side or total from respected capping service I may use, if I can fill my order without losing best number (not likely with totals) ...P(cover) around 54.5%; 4 Unit bet 5. CFB side from my model, with agreement from respected associates ... P(cover) around 55%; 5 unit bet 6. CFB total from my model....P(Cover) around 100%....OK around 55.5%; 6 unit bet 7. RAS release....P(cover) around 56%; 7 unit bet (of course as we've discussed and seen, RAS releases move extremely quickly so I may not be able to fill my order, but I would take that much at his release number). 8. WNBA, Arena Football, WFC, Tennis, Mispriced props, NASCAR (I don't bet, but fits the example), Golf and any other obscure sport where you either have the selections of a competent capper or find exceptional value you should and must bet more if possible. The "trick" is to assess the P(cover) as accurately as possible. That is impossible for a novice but if you have been betting, capping, and/or using services for an extended period of time, you should have a decent estimate of expected long-term performance. With your experience, I'm sure you are well aware of this. If your question was more directed at should an individual capper release selections with weightings that vary from 1-10, my knee jerk response is no because he likely is doing his own work and, therefore, his mortal lock probably isn't too much better than his standard selection. Many cappers release higher rated plays in the hopes of reversing a bad record. If they are down 40 units on 1 or 2 star selections, they might try to get it all back with a 50 star lock. That said, it would be justifiable for a capper to release a range of units if he did this consistently over time and it was clear to all that he wasn't chasing, especially if he gave write-ups to support the strength of the selection. It would be up to the consumer to determine if a multiple weighted selection usually outperforms single weights for this capper and bet size accordingly. I bet in a range of approx. 1-10 units for the reasons given above. I've been doing it a very long time and have had good success. It bares repeating that I'm not suggesting you bet 4 times as much on Jim Feist's (or anyone else's) 4 star release as their 1 star release unless YOU are confident (we know they are) it will hit a couple % higher over the LONG TERM. It is imperative that you determine, as best you can, the Probability a selection will cover. For example, let's say you have a local bookie that gives a free half point on every selection. (I used to know guys that did such things, they are defunct of course). Do your homework, learn the push percentages etc., and evaluate your advantage. You simply must bet more when your advantage is greater. Don't run from this; you must estimate your advantage or you are giving away tremendous value. If I were posting selections on this or any other board, I think I would be forced to limit the range of my weights from 1-3 or possibly 1-4, otherwise the critics will scream that I am gaming the system. If I were posting my bets for someone to follow I would post in a 1-10 range because that is what I do. The goal is to make money. I'd rather hit 50% of my bets but win my higher weights, than hit 55% of my bets a make less money. As far as the mathematical demonstration, I don't have time for that. It should be obvious that betting more when your advantage is greater will yield better results. Honestly, if you have no idea how to evaluate when you have a greater P(cover) then you are in trouble. Of course you must manage your bankroll wisely. A 10 unit bet for me isn't 10% of my bankroll, not by a long shot. It's a function of how much I'm targeting to earn in a year, how many units I expect to win, and what my pain tolerance is. To each their own. Best of luck.

Calsport I appreciate your time on this. I do understand WHY Bettors play some games at higher units, I guess I still just want to be assured with the Math Behind it. I have a hard time grasping why a game can be 3 Times Better than another one. I also think that a bettor can get into bad situations betting 10 Times more than another play because doing so and having a bad run can put a person in a situation quickly where fighting back to even can be next to impossible without playing even more 10 Weight Plays, and maybe more than one should. Fez Football this year is a good example as I think he is like 1-5 on 5 to 10 Unit Plays... Here is something you said.... "The goal is to make money. I'd rather hit 50% of my bets but win my higher weights, than hit 55% of my bets a make less money." Something about this statement that is problematic: If you are hitting 50% of your bets and making money then you are winning more higher rated bets. But this also means that are hitting below 50% on the lower rated plays. So why play the lower rated plays at all? For the sake of this argument let's assume you are betting to win, not just to have action.. I did not mean this conversation to be about Jim Fiest or any Tout, just about betting and I do understand what you say about these people pressing as they often do.. I just want to understand the Math behind it all. I do understand that hitting 53% on 1 Weights, 54% on 2 Weights, and 55% on 3 Weights at $100 per Unit and 100 bets per subset gets +2470. I also know that if all "Profitable Subsets" are bet at 3 Weight, which would mean level betting, the take would be +3880. That Math I can do.. I guess the bottom line for me is that one should not be betting plays that are not +EV and if 1 Unit Plays are such, they should be eliminated. And also it seems to me that shorterm variance can put you in the poorhouse quickly playing games at 10 Weight. That's my take on it. I am not saying I am right, that's just where I am now. I do play level "Mostly" at 2% and I do play 3% on occasion. That's makes those higher rated plays 50% Better. I think that is reasonable. I can certainly learn from those that do otherwise and perhaps change the way I bet if I am convinced. I am not for now but all responses here are very appreciated. I would love to see some Math if anyone has it or can direct me to it. Thanks..

BigPappa, I'm new to the forums, and I rarely post, but I agree with your logic here. Fezzik makes a living doing this (unlike me and most of us), so I'm sure he is great at sizing bets, but to me, betting 10 times another bet just messes with my head too much, especially since things like estimated edge are impossible to be exact on (middling situations are an exception obviously). Like you, I also bet a consistent size, and occasionally go 1.5 units if I love the bet. If a bet seems not quite as good, I try to have the discipline to skip it. Hope this helps, John