I want to play Navy, but..... Navy, a hard-trying underdog, seems to fit basic minor bowl strategy today, against a Missouri team that has becomed accustomed to more grandiose holiday plans than the Texas Bowl. But there's a surprising amount favoring Missouri today.
Their win over Army was the only game that saw Navy outgain an opponent since October 24th. They were outgained by Temple, Notre Dame, Delaware, and Hawaii during that stretch.
Navy's starting center was declared academically ineligible rather late in the game and his replacement has only been playing with the first team for a couple of days.
Mizzou can throw the ball, and Navy gave up 452 yards passing to Notre Dame and 366 yards passing to Hawaii late in the season. Navy's secondary is more athletic than it used to be, but good passing attacks did some damage late in the year.
Missouri's Blaine Gabbert toughed out an ankle injury midseason but has 8 TD passes and 0 INT's since his return to health.
Service academies always play well in Texas. The state has a lot of kids who love football and are good, but just not athletic enough or big enough for the Big 12. The academies scoop them up and then reward them with trips back to the Lone Star State. But Missouri recruits Texas heavily and their Texans are thrilled to be playing in Houston as well.
Missouri has held 11 of 12 opponents below 4.0 yards per rush and have one of the top run D's in the land. They haven't faced an option attack, but their stout defensive line seems to be more equipped than most to handle their duties and the defensive ends and cornerbacks have had extra time to be schooled on stopping the option.
These Navy seniors are 0-3 in bowl games and are motivated, but Mizzou seems surprisingly motivated as well and has practiced well.
I tend not to go against "basic minor bowl strategy" even in the face of matchup advantages. And I understand a play on Navy today, though I'd much prefer a +7 or a +7.5 (solid 6.5 as I write this). Will root for the Middies, as I always root for the academy kids. But Navy's not going to have my backing at the current line.
