I was at M for NFL season win openers, notes

I was at M for NFL season win openers, notes In prior years, this was a huge advantage play. It's 2011, and the edges are much smaller. fyi, I bet Tbay UN 6-120. One fine wager IMO. Nowhere to be found. Offshore, there are still a few places with good off numbers like DEn UN 10, etc.........for those with lots of outs.

Even harder in 2012

tampa bay u6 -120 is in loads of places .....how would you weight that Fezz ? thanks

1 weight. UN 6-120

ok thanks Fezz

Tampa getting some support and will through the preseason I think. Scouting guys like their personnel moves, and maybe trying to move away from the problem guys like Winslow, and adding leaders like Barron. Could be a disaster under Schiano, but 6 is pushing it.

Have absolutely no opinion myself on some of this stuff going in a different direction. (1) John Clayton gave TB strong support for their FA period. I don't know how many games he thinks they can win. I looked at his power ratings and he had them 19th. What I didn't like was that he had them better than the other guys on ESPN. Now I don't know if his power ranking necessarily follows schedule analysis since I know he uses both to come up with his RSW. Anyway I noted that and I noticed Pinnacle had TB Over 6. This is only a one weight. But it is sort of questionable whether under is correct at these prices. (2) St. Louis Rams over I have noticed that has come back so it is a chance to bet it if I want it. The problem here for me is that Clayton has them 31st which is lower than the other guys again. He even has Quinn as one of his top 10 breakout players for the year and still has them 31st. I have to think 31st means trouble for 6 wins but once again I don't really know where he stands on RSW. I haven't done any schedule analysis myself. Without some more info it is hard to bet this over unless I got a feel of what it is we're betting this on. With Clayton having them bottom of the league at least in power ratings, it is hard for me to want to bet this over. I find the market agrees with Clayton so I don't like going against him. This guy does way too much work on this and I don't care he doesn't gamble for a living. He has access to all kinds of data sources and the use of staff at ESPN and is completely wired into the league. I think he does analyze things at a pretty high level and people looking for edges I think his info is a plus. I find the market follows him. (3) That Pittsburgh bet against Denver looks good right away and I know Fez likes the under 10 RSW. Again I wonder how good this really is. I will say it sounds good. But I do think if this drops much below 3 so that 2 is available I think they will bet -2 on Denver. Now I guess if Manning stumbles and I don't know if anyone followed his OTA's and how he did ( I haven't) so +3 seems like a good bet to start since it may not go higher but I wouldn't be surprised to see this back if Manning checks out. The power ratings I see between Pittsburgh and Denver are pretty close. Close enough that the team at home might be a 3 pt favourite. I also saw a question posed to Clayton from some Denver fan who thought the Broncos would win 12 games with Manning. Honestly, Clayton didn't dismiss it and he indicated he felt that the reporting on Manning was underwhelming so far but once it became more favourable the expectations would rise. Under might be the right side here of course but are we really that sure that this number can't go up? If someone can comment on Manning that would be helpful but I'm thinking the Broncos will end up getting support as time goes on here. Might be a great under just not sure this number has to be the best you can do it at.

Pit was laying -7.5 @ Denver in the playoffs when Ben had a injured O line, and a seemingly broken foot. Now they are getting 2 with a healthy Big Ben, vs. a QB learning a whole new system who hasn't played in 20 months.

Definitely one side of the fence to be on. If I were to criticize the rationale it would be there is the small point they did lose that game regardless of the -7.5. I can't imagine any pro didn't bet Denver in that game so I recall it was as easy as a cupcake winner. The 20 months part will be true less the activities he becomes involved in during the off season and his work in the pre season. Peyton learning a new system I can't really say I totally agree with since I just don't see him struggling out there to learn. Maybe the other players might be in shock from going from Tebow to Manning and create some disadvantage for the team is more likely. "Geez Peyton sorry I didn't run that route that well....last year I just used to run down the field stick my arms up and yell 'pass it to me'. Obviously the "theory" that Peyton will be behind is a naturally solid one. But my main point is that guys like Clayton are already of the opinion that this theory may not be as true as one might think. He has seen him a bit I suppose and was throwing the ball well. He didn't think much of the media had seen it so that the pervasive opinion is that people are being negative about Peyton and Denver as a general comment. A guy threw out they could win 12 games and I didn't see him dismiss it or endorse it. But I was looking for the dismissal. Clayton seemed to indicate that expectations will rise for Denver as the off season progresses. Off hand I just don't think that lends well to betting against Denver early. But admittedly I'm not taking any betting position on Denver early either but I'm just putting an opinion out there that I read.