IF you have bet AFC, take GB -131 back 2 weight

IF you have bet AFC, take GB -131 back 2 weight If you don't have the AFC, then play GB 1 unit -2.5-110. WElcome to 2011 where you have 5 minutes to get good wagers in, even with the game 2 weeks ago. Game opened GB -120ish at Pinnacle during the 2nd game, 2nd half, and total OV 44.5. IN VEgas GB -1.5. Amazing to me, since this was such an easy no brainer line to make -2.8. By Sunday night the value is very much diminished, but I do think GB is the clearly superior team, and Pit's center has a bad wheel.

This will be interesting, as I doubt the books want a 3 "juiced" for the super bowl. I'm guessing they would mostly prefer to stay -2.5, but I cannot see this staying around for two weeks. Too many people on the Pack bandwagon not to push this to the key number. The only way to play right now is -2.5, then figure out what to do with it once the line settles.

great, i always LOVE betting the public favorite...Gbay ? i remember this last year.. betting INDY and then 10 days later " dump indy take saints" please expain and tell me WHY this wont happen again this year

to the above poster - what you and many posters like you here forget is - sports betting is about betting good numbers not games or sides - you create a huge advantage when you have the number gives you all sorts of options to get the money... and if the market does not play out the way you want it to - then you can get away from the bet easily without much damage done

Sorry, I may well DUMP GB and take Pit+3 if it pops up. And NOTE, I only recommended GB for a small wager. UNless you got more on the AFC early in the year, and then a larger wager. Last week, if we had not taken 'public' GB-3 early in the week, we likely STILL would have been on the Bears at 3.5 (and lost). We also were on 'public' Pit. I know GB is the best team. I know Pitt's Center is hobbled. With 2 weeks to go, I also know things may change, and I may well play some Packers to go under for props, we will see. If you want an easier forum to bet on, JimFeist, Wayne Root and all the fraud/loser touts will be more than happy to provide you with "3 td blowout winners". Or.......you can stay the course and for $25 a month, get advice from someone who makes a very nice living BETTING this stuff, not selling it.

Nice job on crushing your playoff bets. I can get pitt +3 120. Do you think we will see pitt -110?

I took GB -2' -110 solely because I expect this to close +3'. Based on what we know and expect, this line is easy to anticipate, and grabbing Pit at 3 seems hasty. I can also get +3 -120, but I will wait. I wish that you could get "players card points" or equivalent for betting these things. I'd hedge out of everything and make my money on the rewards. This game would be tailor made for that. The "no OT" prop should be better this year because the line is smaller, but if it opens -1000 (it gets worse every year), this might be the year to pass on it.

[QUOTE=costar;38175]to the above poster - what you and many posters like you here forget is - sports betting is about betting good numbers not games or sides - you create a huge advantage when you have the number gives you all sorts of options to get the money... and if the market does not play out the way you want it to - then you can get away from the bet easily without much damage done[/QUOTE] Easy now, this is a case by case situation, imo. Good numbers are essential, but good sides count also. I agree that if the numbers are outstanding, you've got an edge. Nobody will ever lose money if they're on the right side of 3 in the NFL, but everything counts, good sides and good numbers, sometimes more one than the other.

[QUOTE=Climate;38185]Easy now, this is a case by case situation, imo. Good numbers are essential, but good sides count also. I agree that if the numbers are outstanding, you've got an edge. Nobody will ever lose money if they're on the right side of 3 in the NFL, but everything counts, good sides and good numbers, sometimes more one than the other.[/QUOTE] Thanks guys. I appreciate all of the feedback. I learning how important it is to get good numbers.

[QUOTE=joelshitshow;38183]I took GB -2' -110 solely because I expect this to close +3'. Based on what we know and expect, this line is easy to anticipate, and grabbing Pit at 3 seems hasty. I can also get +3 -120, but I will wait. I wish that you could get "players card points" or equivalent for betting these things. I'd hedge out of everything and make my money on the rewards. This game would be tailor made for that. The "no OT" prop should be better this year because the line is smaller, but if it opens -1000 (it gets worse every year), this might be the year to pass on it.[/QUOTE] Thanks Joel.