Improving results of Basic Strategy Wong Teasers at least for me For those of you unfamiliar with the basic strategy on Wong Teasers or basic strategy teasers, the idea is to tease games through the number 3 and 7 so an 8 pt favourite is pulled down to 2 pts, etc. I won't go into any more details on it except that is has shown to be generally a profitable subset of teasers.
My own experience is that it was always a lukewarm strategy for myself and dropped it a long time ago. Even the theoretical mathematical advantage seemed small compared to other bets I was making anyway. I also wasn't comfortable that just looking at any NFL board would result in a plethora of supposedly mathematically advantageous plays.
However, I have had more than even normal success the past few years making modifications to my teaser work.
(1) If do bet a teaser whether the play is suggested by Fezzik or it is a game I'm considering betting +2.5 or otherwise, I always line shop for books which are dealing the game with increased odds at +3 and I will do a 7 pt teaser to incorporate the +10. The math will now say I need to win more than 75% of the time on each game I play to have any math edge with my teasers and I use 2 event teasers. I'll assume that by employing this strategy I've given up the theoretical math edge but I really don't care. I feel the math edge is small to begin with even on Wong teasers and I'd rather have less variance with my results (by picking up +10) and it is a side I'm betting so I'd rather not sit on +8.5 with a 6 pt teaser on the game.
You'll notice line moves at books once the juice becomes very strong on the underdog at +3 the game will drop to +2.5 and of course some books like Pinnacle will drop the line to +1 with varying juice for I believe this exact reason which is to avoid bettors being able to do a 6 point teaser and obtain greater than +7.
And my highest preference is that both halves of my teaser be games at +10. I try to avoid as much as possible making the other game I'm teasing -8 teased down to -1 of course. In this circumstance it is not worth it of course to get that one point I'd rather do a 6 pt teaser but if I'm doing a wheel on the +10 to get enough action on that side I might have to do it.
(2) I'll look for unique numbers for teasers along with select handicapping and try to take advantage of even sharper books trying to deal lines to avoid basic strategy teasers. The best example in awhile was last weekend when NE was a 9.5 pt favourite over the Jets. 5 Dimes is a book that always deals its teaser menu numbers to avoid sharp bettors using Wong teasers to beat them. On their teaser menu for this game they had -10 so they can avoid NE teaser bettors laying less than -3 on a 7 pt teaser. Bingo. I play the Jets +17.
There is no math that will say this teaser is even any good as I tease through 7 pts and incorporate numbers such as 15, 16 etc. But I do like this side of the game and then a later line movement dropping the game down to 7 most likely made this play not a bad bet within in its own math.
For this Minnesota/Chicago game this weekend, at the current time the juice on +3 isn't as high as I would like it to be yet at least but I will incorporate some +10 in my betting. If the game gets some momentum on the line movement perhaps more books will drop their line to +2.5 and Pinnacle will deal the game off the 1. By that time I will have incorporated the 7 pt teaser obtaining +10.
Of course, I prefer that my teaser be an outlier number obtaining the +10 in that fashion through the odd book which was dealing +3 at increased juice but if it is a handicapped play I'll bet some of it and hope for the best on line movement.
(3) I avoid favourites to a huge extent at this. You'll go bankrupt backing the Eagles and tearing down numbers from above 7 to under 3 on their games. This was the type of stuff on the basic strategy teasers that made the whole exercise a moot point for me anyway.
In summary, I don't play basic strategy teasers and feel I have any meaningful edge so I just avoid them. I have enough bets I can do without tying up money doing that. I feel the subset has a low profitability anyway and also seems like a strategy that might blow up and won't show up in 5 years as being any good.
What I do is incorporate line shopping, select handicapping with an emphasis on finding books that 7 pt teasers at +10 on games that are +2.5. I will give up a theoretical return edge and even be betting a negative edge to reduce my bets in this space to be only on games where I am betting that side anyway and will likely over the course of a year be saved by +10 perhaps once or twice in a year.
