Ind now -5 1/2

Ind now -5 1/2 Cris and Tradewind now have Ind favored by 5 1/2. I just bet +6 with a local. Talk about overreaction!

Not so sure - I can't see Indy punting in the game quite frankly. Manning is going to shred that poorous defense. All comes down to whether Indy secondary can hold up some and I think they will. But you were right on Texas vs. Bama IMO so good luck - i'll wait for Fez props.

Indy wins this thing 38-17. N.O. defense is horrible. Vikings could and should have won by 20 points today. Colts are far and away the best team in football. After facing that Jets defense today, 2 weeks from now that Colts offense will be playing whiffle ball with this Saints farce of a football team.

[QUOTE=burger;15731]Indy wins this thing 38-17. N.O. defense is horrible. Vikings could and should have won by 20 points today. Colts are far and away the best team in football. After facing that Jets defense today, 2 weeks from now that Colts offense will be playing whiffle ball with this Saints farce of a football team.[/QUOTE] Haven't made a decision on the game yet but OS is correct there is an overreaction. Vikings averaged 5.8 yards per play coming into the Saints game and gained just that - 5.8 yards per play. They averaged 7.0 yards per pass attempt coming in and averaged 6.8 yards per pass attempt in the game. They averaged 4.1 yards per rush coming in and gained 4.6 yards per rush. I don't see how that makes the Saints defense terrible. They held the Vikings to their season averages, for the most part. I realized the Saints struggled during parts of the season, especially on the road. But, Indy didn't exactly face the Saints offense the last two weeks and had some of their own issues on the road this year. Erase the first fumble by Peterson because they only got that ball on a fumble by Bush. The next three fumbles they recoverd. At some point you have to give the Saints credit for the int's, etc. They were up there in turnovers all year long and did it again today. I was surprised the Saints offense was held in check as much as it was. Again, I haven't decided although I believe there is value with the Saints in this game. The better defense of Indy does scare me though.

Line will be 6 at some point and it will go back down to 4 by kick off.

Agree you have to give NO credit for the TO margin. But that is their only hope in this game IMO. Their D reminds me of NE's when they were scoring in record numbers in their undefeated year - they know their Off is going to score 30+ so they take chances punching at ball, going for INT, etc. They can play loose and high risk defense and go for TO's. But if Indy hangs on to the ball, and they will obviously be preaching that, I agree with Burger that this won't be that close. On a neutral field, Manning will pick them apart. Bottom line _ I can't see NO D stopping Indy O but I can see Indy D stopping NO O to some degree. So it comes down to whether NO will continue to get the TO's???

the turnover margin during the year means nothing IMO. last two years pitt and NE both had superior turnover margins and did not cover the game........NE turnover margin was HUGE that year...g-men upset them. I do agree though the saints D is not all good...cannot tackle but if they just keep scoring....they won't have to.

+6 -10 is about fair market value right now

[QUOTE=lvmike32;15765]Agree you have to give NO credit for the TO margin. But that is their only hope in this game IMO. Their D reminds me of NE's when they were scoring in record numbers in their undefeated year - they know their Off is going to score 30+ so they take chances punching at ball, going for INT, etc. They can play loose and high risk defense and go for TO's. But if Indy hangs on to the ball, and they will obviously be preaching that, I agree with Burger that this won't be that close. On a neutral field, Manning will pick them apart. Bottom line _ I can't see NO D stopping Indy O but I can see Indy D stopping NO O to some degree. So it comes down to whether NO will continue to get the TO's???[/QUOTE] Yeah, don't disagree. The line is the great equalizer. If, and maybe a big if, this line goes to +6, they could be down by as many as 13 and backdoor a push on this. Getting points could be huge, depending on where the line goes. Even at +4.5 or more, an 11 point deficit gets a cover with a backdoor score (possible late two point try not accounted for).

The difference between the loser's total yds (475) and the winner's total yds (257) was the largest for a playoff game where the team with fewer yds won SU. Everyone saw how lucky New Orleans was, and everyone saw how dominant Ind was in the second half, so all the squares, who have a short memory, will be on IND in the SB. With two weeks to re-group, I think there will be some value in NO (at +6 or higher).