Indy / Tenn Opening Line ?

Indy / Tenn Opening Line ? Can someone shed a little info on why the Indy opening line was 4 and is now 3'? Indy last two games: 34-17 over seattle and 31-10 over ARI Tenn last two games: 17-37 loss to Jac and 17-24 loss to NYJ What am I missing here? Would really appreciate feedback. I am trying to learn and this makes no sense to me...

I see CRIS opening at -3 -110. Looked like money came in on Indy, not Tenn, but maybe others who follow the market more closely than I do will correct me.

[QUOTE=Poppa K;4773]Can someone shed a little info on why the Indy opening line was 4 and is now 3'? Indy last two games: 34-17 over seattle and 31-10 over ARI Tenn last two games: 17-37 loss to Jac and 17-24 loss to NYJ What am I missing here? Would really appreciate feedback. I am trying to learn and this makes no sense to me...[/QUOTE] You are trying to base what the number should be off of their recent games against completely different opponents?

Pinnacle actually hung Indy -1 for a while Sunday night until the other books opened. If you are just using performance-based power ratings, Indy probably looks cheap even at minus 3. But the situational spot appears to favor Tenn. I can only guess as to that is why Pinny's opener was so low. I am passing here. EDIT: If this line continues to climb, Tenn may be worth something.

You're crossing the Rubicon in NFL betting making any competitive team more than a FG home dog. I'm on Indy here, btw, so I'm not arguing against you. I just know there--rightfully--is something of a market psychology battle line drawn at the 3. And this line is drawn on the other side of it.

Pick 4, can you elaborate as to how the situational spot appears to favor Ten? At 0-4, they must be on the verge of throwing in the towel and fans are calling for VY. Indy has a bye next week and the consensus seems to be that coaches like to go into bye weeks with victories (as opposed to losses?). Also, I believe Ten had Finnegan and another DB out last wk vs Jax and Garrard torched their secondary. Further, their team leader in TDs, Nate Washington, is out per ScoresAndOdds. I'm not saying I'd take the Colts, as I'm looking at either Ten or nothing in this spot, given where the line opened, public sentiment of both teams (4-0 vs 0-4, Peyton on fire, etc.), Indy coming off two decisive victories and national TV wins in 2 of last 3, all squares losing on Ten the last weeks believing they can't go 0-3 or 0-4 after being a playoff team last year and probably jumping off the bandwagon now, etc. Just curious as to what situation you're referencing. Thanks

You have home dog with their backs totally against the wall. Indy is in its third prime time road game in four weeks. You'll get Tenn's best effort this week (I think). After this week, who knows. Tenn is still a slightly positive yards-per-play team, and is not the worst 0-4 team out there. The ball bounces a different way in a few games they could be 3-1. On the flip side, you have an Indy team that has just sliced through lesser foes thus far. They did struggle week one with divisional foe Jax, but tough to fade Indy as they have looked really good. If Indy money rolls in Sunday night, there may be some funky lines out there, especially with locals. At best, offshore will get to 6. Again, at the current number I'm passing.

[QUOTE=red30;4775]You are trying to base what the number should be off of their recent games against completely different opponents?[/QUOTE] I'm saying it appears to me that Indy is the far superior team here. I am wondering if anyone had insight as to why, or help me understand. Again, I am learning (at least trying)

[QUOTE=Pick 4;4815]You have home dog with their backs totally against the wall. Indy is in its third prime time road game in four weeks. You'll get Tenn's best effort this week (I think). After this week, who knows. Tenn is still a slightly positive yards-per-play team, and is not the worst 0-4 team out there. The ball bounces a different way in a few games they could be 3-1. On the flip side, you have an Indy team that has just sliced through lesser foes thus far. They did struggle week one with divisional foe Jax, but tough to fade Indy as they have looked really good. If Indy money rolls in Sunday night, there may be some funky lines out there, especially with locals. At best, offshore will get to 6. Again, at the current number I'm passing.[/QUOTE] Thanks for the reply. I can see the 3rd straight prime time road game angle, but the back against the wall theory seems like the same rationale everyone was using the previous 2 weeks. One would think they would have been motivated, if not moreso, when facing a potential 0-3 and 0-4 start. I don't know the stat for 0-4 teams making the playoffs, but I'm guessing it's not very good. However, this is probably the same kind of widespread thinking that makes a play on Ten even worth considering. Like you, I will probably be on the Titans if the line creeps up by gametime. The YPP stat I didn't know about (but obv should for the NFL)...thanks for that.

Tennessee does qualify in very solid situations this week, including a do or die game five situation, a home dog bounce back situation after getting killed last week and now playing a team that rolled over their opponent last week and they qualify in several fundamental rushing situations. So, the situation is in their favor. What isn't in their favor is the match up - they can't defend the pass and Indy has been great throwing the ball, they have numerous key injuries and they almost seemed like they quit last week. I was on them last week as they were in good situations, were fundamentally the better team (or so I thought) and I figured Jeff Fisher would make sure they were ready. One thing to be careful of with this team is they had plenty of success last year and the season is about to get away from them. These type of teams can quit pretty fast when they are used to winning. I would have a hard time playing Tennessee this week unless something else shows up to give me a reason to play them. Tough betting against Peyton Manning in a game they need to win by a few points. The guy finds a way to win and I have Indy rated pretty high so far this year.