Interesting NFL Stat

Interesting NFL Stat Gentlemen, I have a theory for the reason for this "strange" result. I would like to know what the experts here think. In the NFL, since 1989, teams that score twenty points in a game are 73 games ABOVE 500 at 393 and 320. However, teams that score 21 points are 60 games BELOW 500 at 202-262. Why do teams that score 21 points have a record that is significantly worse than teams that score 20 points? Prof M.

Another key way to look at it is that teams score 20 points about 55% more often than 21. I think when losing you score more garbage touchdowns (which can get you to 21). You're more likely to score 20 in a close game, and because the average score is below 20 (right?), 20 has all those game-winning field goals in those 20-17 and 23-20 finals, as well.

That was my take on it as well. A team that is trailing by a lot does not kick many field goals. I also noticed that an NFL team has scored a total of 7 points in 408 games -- only 8 were wins. A NFL team scored a total of 6 points in 241 games, but 12 of those were wins. I think the same reasoning applies. I think I have too much time on my hands... Prof.

Yeah, those 6-3 kind of games in the mud. Here is where you can find some value in this: Team totals. An over/under of 20'? Take the over on a dog and the under on a favorite. I guarantee this is not included the line.

I imagine teams scoring safeties do poorly as well Due to the end of game intentional safeties taken

TEAM total = 20.5 Joel, It took me a while to figure this out. In fact, I may not have figured it out yet. What I did was assume that the team total is 20.5 when: (total-line)/2 = 20.5. Is this right? Then I got the number of times that the team scored more than 20 points as a favorite and less than 21 points as a dog. Would this be helpful? Did you mean to parlay the dog with the under and the favorite with the over? Prof. Meyer

Exactly 20 as a favorite, or exactly 21 as a dog. The purpose is to see the value of that particular hook. I hadn't thought about parlays, to be honest.

Ohhh. I get it. The SDQL: (total-line)/2 = 20.5 and points Will give the relevant results. When a team total is 20.5 (as defined above), their points scored distribution is as follows: more than 21 points: 117 times exactly 21 points: 15 times exactly 20 points: 16 times below 20 points: 116 times For completeness: Here are same numbers for favorites: more than 21 points: 69 times exactly 21 points: 13 times exactly 20 points: 11 times below 20 points: 62 times and for the underdogs: more than 21 points: 45 times exactly 21 points: 2 times exactly 20 points: 5 times below 20 points: 49 times Your observation is correct. When a team total is 20.5, the OVER on the favorite is 82-73 ATS and the UNDER on the dog is 54-47 ATS. The point you were getting at, and I was slow to pick up on, is to evaluate the VALUE of half point difference around a team total of 20.5. These numbers are very interesting. For comparison, in the NFL since 1989, there has been 798 games in which the line was three points. In these games the favorite won by three points 79 times, which is about 10%. Does anyone know if you can buy a half point on team totals?? Do they charge more for buying a half point off of 20.5 like they do for buying off of 3? Perhaps more importantly, this might be something that can be middled (over 20 and under 21) or at least shopped seriously. That is, if you are going to play under 20.5 on a dog, finding a 21 would have significant value. Great observation, Joelshitshow. How can we best capitalize on it?? Prof Meyer

Except I thought dogs would score 21 more often than 20 when the team total was 20.5 and vice versa, and the reverse was proved true. The point is that we did find something higher than 52%, however. The followup is whether this is statistically significant. I think the 20.5 example, if an exploitable finding, would be a symptom of a larger team total strategy. It's quite possible that something has been stumbled onto here. If so, this is just a minor attribute of it. The next step perhaps would be to check 19.5 for a team total in the same fashion you have here, because 20 is the most common score (isn't it?). And then, I suppose, 16' and 17' because 17 is the 2nd-most common? Put another way, find the most common totals in the NFL and see whether anything weird has happened ATS for team totals. While I am here, try not to put too much stock in team-based trends (not that we've been discussing those), because with the potential for there being no salary cap soon in the NFL, teams have made roster moves to take advantage of this. Similarly, assuming we do enter an era with a modified cap (or return to the era of no salary cap), most team-based trends will be pretty worthless on their own.

[QUOTE=Prof Meyer;24555]Gentlemen, I have a theory for the reason for this "strange" result. I would like to know what the experts here think. In the NFL, since 1989, teams that score twenty points in a game are 73 games ABOVE 500 at 393 and 320. However, teams that score 21 points are 60 games BELOW 500 at 202-262. Why do teams that score 21 points have a record that is significantly worse than teams that score 20 points? Prof M.[/QUOTE] Could you split those two stats into favourites and dogs? How many of those 20 point Wins were made by dogs etc.