Aplogies to the great BW, but Charile and I's totals model is every bit as good Sometimes we give BW too much respect. He just hires the best in the business, and follows their plays.
If BW had hired Charlie (which he would most certainly do if he could) then these plays would be 'BW plays!!'.
The initial line moves are typically somewhat meaningless. What is significant is the CLOSING line. On seveeral totals we have given out it moves, it stabilizes, a little buyback occurs, and then it moves some more!
As for "am I different" I stay up 8 hours Monday night and update my totals power rating for every team based on boxscores and major injuries. I developed a program to use those ratings to set totals for the week based on the matchups. Then I manually adjust lines. Then I normalize those lines to sum to a certain number each week. Then I compare to my totals specialist, Charile J's numbers. They have come in line this year, our two numbers are very close in most games. I weight Charlie's numbers 70% and mine 30%. THAT is one fine unbiased estimate.
If I hear Billy may/is on 351 Col 'under' 61, and we make it 63.1, I don't care. I bet OVER 61. Our numbers are almost always right. We hit well over 60% (and I mean WAY over) vs. opening lines the last 2 years. If Billy likes UNDER 61 in that game, he made a mistake.
