It is NOT 2009...interesting read...college info at end also... IT’S NOT 2009 ANYMORE
A lot of people shrug their shoulders and say that
it’s impossible to win betting on the NFL. One of
the reasons why they say that is because they
don’t do their homework to get better at anticipating
change. Sure, it can be hard to fathom it
happening. Sometimes, we’re even guilty of
ignoring our own advice. That’s how hard it is to
be convinced that what happened last year is not
destined to happen again. Then, you wake up in
December and see the following:
NFL ATS
2010 vs. ‘09: W-L-T
St. Louis: 8-2-1 / 7-9-0
Detroit: 7-4-0 / 4-11-1
Jacksonville: 7-4-0 / 5-11-0
Kansas City: 7-4-0 / 7-9-0
Miami: 7-4-0 / 7-8-1
New England: 7-4-0 / 7-7-3
NY Jets: 7-4-0 / 11-8-0
Pittsburgh: 7-4-0 / 5-10-1
Tampa Bay: 7-3-1 / 6-10-0
Atlanta: 7-4-0 / 11-5-0
Chicago: 6-4-1 / 6-10-0
Green Bay: 6-5-0 / 11-5-1
Indianapolis: 6-4-1 / 12-7-0
Baltimore: 5-5-0 / 10-7-1
Buffalo: 5-5-1 / 8-7-1
NY Giants: 5-6-0 / 6-10-0
Oakland: 5-6-0 / 8-8-0
Philadelphia: 5-6-0 / 9-8-0
San Diego: 6-5-0 / 8-8-1
Seattle: 5-6-0 / 5-11-0
Tennessee: 5-6-0 / 8-8-0
Washington: 5-4-2 / 7-8-1
Cleveland: 4-6-1 / 8-9-0
Dallas: 4-7-0 / 10-8-0
Houston: 4-6-1 / 7-7-2
New Orleans: 4-6-1 / 10-9-0
San Francisco: 4-6-0 / 9-4-3
Carolina: 3-8-0 / 9-7-0
Cincinnati: 3-8-0 / 8-8-0
Denver: 3-8-0 / 9-7-0
Minnesota: 3-7-1 / 12-6-0
Arizona: 2-7-1 / 9-9-0
As you can see, of the 10 teams currently checking
in at 7-3 ATS or better, only two of them – the
New York Jets and Atlanta Falcons – had a winning
record against the spread in 2009. Anyone
deciding to bet on the four worst teams in the
NFL last season would currently be winning
67.4% with St. Louis, Detroit, Jacksonville and
Kansas City, a collective 29-14 ATS in 2010.
Naturally, with so many losers from 2009 winning
in 2010, there must be plenty of 2009 winners
losing vs. the spread. As the list shows,
2009 winners Dallas, San Francisco, Carolina,
Denver and Minnesota are all in the current bottom
nine. After 11 games, nearly half the league
is drastically different vs. the spread. Of course,
there will be some leveling off of the best and
worst records in the next five weeks.
Selective judgement?
America is known for selective enforcement of
penalties, from traffic tickets, to building code
violations, to safety code violations, to stock
market crimes, some people get away with committing
infractions and others don’t, for various
reasons that begin and end with the people in
charge of enforcing those rules. Perhaps we can
add football penalties to the list of American
selective enforcement. As the Associated Press
reported about Nebraska vs. Texas A&M two
weeks ago: “The disparity in penalties between
Nebraska and Texas A&M -- 16 to 2 -- has led to
allegations among Husker fans that the Big 12 is
conspiring against Nebraska in its last year in the
league, before it leaves for the Big Ten.â€
One commenter wanted to know: “How do you
explain that the least penalized teams in the conference
are, by far, opponents of Nebraska and
next is Colorado?†Colorado, of course, is the
other team bailing out of the Big 12 after this
season. Just for funsies, I looked up the national
rankings of opponent penalties. Among the 18
teams whose opponents were the least penalized
were the following five:
Rank / Team / Conference:
119 Michigan / Big Ten: Investigated by NCAA
117 Nebraska / Big 12: Leaving conference
114 Illinois / Big Ten: Whispers of shady recruiting
111 Auburn / SEC: Shouts of shady recruiting
102 Utah / M-West: Leaving conference
Those claiming that frontier justice is taking
place have their circumstantial evidence. – B.
Smith
