I think the exchange between Fezzik and I on the EOG thread "Question over the Jets at 28-1" shows some pretty good point-counterpoint as Fez is firmly on the Steelers and I am firmly on the Jets. Fez laid -3 -120 for posting reasons, but make no mistake about it, Fez probably laid -3 even money when this first opened and all the fog of war was out there. I think for WA reasons, he posted -120. Obviously, I'm getting plus 4.
Along with this I'm on the under huge in this game as well. I posted the play yesterday and got under 40 at -113. I really think the return of SS/ILB Palumalu is going to make moving the ball more difficult for the Jets and I also think Jets Def End Ellis is just going to be living in Big Ben's back pocket as Pitt has some real offensive line issues. The key in this affair as I laid out in the other thread is the Jet's superiority in special teams and Sanchez ability to keep the game under control (1 INT in two postseason games 4-1 lifetime record now). I estimate the Steelers will score three times, punt another 5 or 6 and have one kickoff to begin a half. I give the Jets about a net 5-7 yard average edge per punt/KO return on each one of these. It was the Jets side which started last game against Pitt with a KO TD return by Smith and the Steelers who conceded a Punt Return TD last week (negated on a phantom holding call) which should have decided it for the Ravens. On the other side, Cromartie's clutch KO return was a big factor in the Jets final drive at Indy (set up shop at own 46 in final 52 seconds), they stopped a New England fake punt and got the onside kick in their favor as well as week.
Bottom line is net/net this 50-70 yards should give the jets 2.5-3 points of edge that is not currently factored into the line. This should also keep field position in the favor of the Jets and QB Sanchez. Field position impacts just how aggressive a blitzing Steeler defense can be. As an example, if Cromartie can return the ball to the 40 yard line instead of the 33, it really changes what Jet's OC Schottenheimer can do with his playbook. From there, potentially 35 yards separate the Jets from an FG attempt and as we know, putting together long drives against the Steelers defense is hard to do. Admittedly Sanchez tends to overthrow his receivers this postsean, he's not leaving passes wildly in the middle of the field where they can be picked off and shift field position, thereby forcing opponents to go on long time-consuming drives. This type of game really favors the under and the dog, especially as we see a greater likelihood of 4's popping up.
In terms of the three straight road games for the Jets vs. the argument that the Jets are the team playing with more momentum, I'll opt to go with the latter. The Jets defense, special teams, and run game is really jelling from their line play which has stifled opponents rushing attack to LT and Greene who have put forth workman like efforts, to the special teams which pick up so many of the intangibles.
I also have some real questions about the Steelers offensive line. The issues with their tackles being out for the year and o-line by committee is no secret, but Jets Def End Ellis consistently disrupted the Offensive tackle/guard double team, or tackle/Running back double teams of the Patriots (2 sacks/5 tackles) allowing the Jets to rush 3-4 and keep Revis man-on-man with the other six defenders to focus on stopping the other 3 players. This frustrated both Manning and Brady, I see very much the same thing for Big Ben...
Bottom line -
I have a big play on the Under 40 points, big play on Jets +4 and still have my infamous smaller play on the Jets at +2850 to win the Super Bowl from before the playoffs started...
We'll see how this plays out...
