[QUOTE=Fezzik;37734]Even at -4, Pit is the right side here.
Netto is spending too much time on their personnel issues, and missing the big picture here.
1. Jets 3rd straight playoff road game.
VERY UNFAVORABLE
2. Jets off back to back upsets 'vs. the 2 best qbs in the NFL'
VERY UNFAVORABLE. Yes, they beat Manning, but the Colts team was WAY down, thus the reason the line was pk'm. And they didn't win, Colts lost. In fact, during in-running with 1:30 to play, Colts were -180 to win the game (but people forget that, and just assume the dropped pass 3rd down Colt conversion (which would have iced the game), the Cromartie return to midfield, the Caldwell dumb ass timeout, were all "the Jets finding a way to win". WRONG!!!!! The Colts maching down on back to back drives kicking the game winning fgs WERE THE COLTS finding a way to win the game.........and then donking it away.
3. Pit O stats are skewed badly by their first 4 games sans Big Ben with a bunch of stiffs qbing. This required a Herculean effort by their D in Sept, and of course the D had to let up in Oct when Ben returned (AND he was rusty!).
4. If you believe in Fumbles are random, ints are not, THEN THE JEST ARE GOIING TO GET ANHILATED. Pit 22-9 Int differential on O, 15-21 on D. Jets (OMG) only 20-14 O, 24-12 D. (Suddenly that 'great' Jet D don't look so good does it?)
5. Teams beating the NFL champs are now 0-11 ATS in the playoffs. Jets just beat the NFL runnerups, got to play their hated arch 1-way rival, who they knew was the best team, and it was "personal" AGAIN back to back road wins.
This is a qb league. When in doubt, you bet the better qb. Sure, IF your qb is bad, and the other guy is Peyton Manning or Brady, you can win if the rest of the team outplays the other guys. But Pit has the much better qb, AND the better Defense. AND a masive HFA.
Pit banged up by Balt, but that bye week was HUGE. Not to mention 2 'bye' wins week 16 and 17 when they were clobberred Caro and Clev by 20+ each week, so they could coast away. So with 1 tough game in 5 weeks,the freshness factor is HUGE in Pit's favor.
Balt got 126 TOTAL yards. Mark (I know I stink, and so does my coach despite his formal humpty dumpty lies) Sanchez is going to throw 4 int's, and THE SAME OLE JETS are going to get POUNDED on Sunday.[/QUOTE]
[B]Point-by-point ...
1. Jets 3rd straight playoff road game.
VERY UNFAVORABLE[/B]
Not exactly. We have tremendous precedent in the last five years of 6th seed and wild card teams who have caught momentum and never looked back. Pitt, eventual Super Bowl Champs in 2005 ( wins at Cincy, at Indy, and at Denver) NY Giants in 2007-08 (wins at Tampa Bay, at Dallas, and at Green Bay). You can even argue that the Eagles two years ago were a missed pass interference call away from winning three straight at Arizona(wins at Minnesota in wild card round, at NY Giants in divisional round) to go to the Super Bowl as well.
The common theme on both of the Super Bowl winning sides was a solid defense, a reliable run game and a QB who didn't kill you...And going beyond those stats, in the last 5 years, road teams in the AFC/NFC championship have been very live as the home field has been a bit of a myth. Looking down the AFC side, last year's Jets lead at halftime, 09's Pitt-Baltimore tussle was a blow-by-blow affair, San Diego gave New England all they could handle in '08 and covered as DD dogs, The colts and Pats played a 38-34 classic in 07, and Pittsburgh blew out Denver in Mile High Stadium in 06. On the NFC side, the road team has covered three of the last 5 years as well.
2. I can't really come back and say too much if you are going to pick a moment in the game and reference an in game price as to how lucky the Jets were to win. But since I do a ton of in game wagering myself, how about when the Jets had a 14-10 lead in the 4th Q and were -200 themselves, or a 14-13 lead with the ball and again a favorite to win. You and I both know the implied volatility of any NFL game will in most cases have a situation where a team is in a spot where they are either -200 or +180 depending on the dynamics, so I'm the last guy to try and make that argument against. But what I can say about the composition of the game is the Jets dominated the line of scrimmage, outrushed the Colts, through a great defensive effort contained a Colts side which just won three in a row and had found their run game in weeks 14-16. And clearly Caldwell made some poor game management decisions, but the Jets made a few mistakes themselves. Final first downs in favor of Jets 23-16, total plays 70-54, and total yards as well...You could forgive me for saying their win wasn't all luck...
3. Pitt has a solid defense, in fact the best against the run in the NFL. It just happens that the Jets had the best rushing effort against Pitt all year in week 15 rushing for 106 yards and the Pitt secondary is vulnerable. Troy Palumalu should help on both fronts and is a big reason why I LOVE the under in this game.
4. Fumbles are far from random and in many cases are a byproduct of both the physicality and the preparation of a defense. It's often an offense out of rhythm caused by strong physical play that is a big factor in turnovers (both fumbles and INT's), as well as how well a defense can put pressure on the QB at the right time through great play calling by a def. coordinator. The Jets d is solid as they do a great job of stopping the run (6th in the NFL) and have two great corners that let them get very creative with their safeties and linebackers.
5. You would have done well to leave this point out altogether as you make a number of uncorrelated arguments. For starters, the Pats last won the super bowl in 2005 and the Jets-Pats rivalry has been far from one-way in recent years (Alf Musketta can chime in here). Instead the Pats are divisional rivals the Jets already beat in week 2 and have played very close in the last three years. This was clearly a huge win on the road at a divisional rival they were very familiar with, but not their Super Bowl. Instead this win is a galvanization of momentum for their playoff run. For better or worse, this Jets side really believes it's their destiny to raise the Lombardi trophy, and it has been this way since the summer...
Pitt does have a better QB and a better defense, but not by the margins you purport. And regarding their HFA in the playoffs, you would have been better served to do some research. Over the past decade, the Steelers have lost key decisions to Jacksonville, an AFC championship game to New England and repeated near misses to Baltimore. In fact, can you tell me the last home playoff game the Steelers have had they put in a dominant one-sided performance?
Baltimore's 126 yard output is a sign of their lack of explosiveness on offense. Despite this, Baltimore's aging defense still had the game by the scruff of the neck and two phantom holding calls (one on a punt return, one on the defense near the goal line) made all the difference. And still Pitt's special teams are a nightmare, something which you have yet to account for or even address the undeniable edge which exists. I will concede in terms of FG kickers, Pitt has an edge there, but in terms of return yardage, this game will see the NY Jets with a decided field position advantage that will make a ton of difference in how this game plays out.
We all know anything can happen and Pitt may very well win by 20 points, but based on the factors I have put forth, I'm predicting a Jets 20-13 win...Jets +4 ( i can only pray it gets to 4.5, where I know despite what you say you will play back on the Jets for most of your position b/c I'm sure going to add to my position) and under 40 are the plays for me...
Thanks for your time Fez and good luck...
