[QUOTE=Lee Sterling;31903]I like the ASU side and it probably will be on my card today. USC looks played out while ASU's offense should have a huge game against a beaten up and depth shy Trojan defense. ASU won't be intimdated going on the road at all.[/QUOTE]
Thanks for sharing Lee. It's always great to have high caliber handicappers participating on this board... I don't have a play on this game but a couple of things which concern about the ASU side, which has attracted all the money since this game opened Sunday night at USC -7:
- While I'm not a legacy person and don't believe that what happened 8 years ago matters much, ASU has lost to USC 10 straight times. Now I was on Oregon last week so I have no problem going against USC, but I also don't think the long losing streak is immaterial either...
- ASU's propensity to self destruct through penalties and dumb mistakes. (110th in Nation in penalties, and LAST in the nation in turnover margin, -.88 turnovers a game)
- The best QB in this game is on the Trojan side and it's by a wide margin. USC QB Matt Barkley has developed a great deal since last year and has gone a long way in cutting down on his interceptions and has become a very respectable possession QB who I feel actually played a pretty good game against the best team in the nation last week vs. Oregon
- USC does in fact have depth at the skill positions with Tyler and Havili at RB, and Johnson and Woods returning punts and kickoffs as well as playing WR.
- USC will be the healthiest on defense as it has been all year. Last week Defensive end Wes Horton returned against Oregon from a back injury that knocked him out of the previous three games. End Nick Perry should be returning to fitness from a nagging ankle injury. And tackle-end Armond Armstead, who had been beat up leading to the Oregon game should be better as well. Linebacker Malcolm Smith is good to go now.
- ASU's win over a completely battered Wash St. side may have been the best situation of the year for ASU. It was their first home game in 5 weeks, Wash St. was very bruised and just ran a gantlet against Oregon, Stanford, Arizona, and UCLA.
- There are some factors which can clearly help the ASU side:
- USC has a horrible place kicker. Houston has struggled for much of the year and is a major liability.
- Outside of Cal, when ASU can focus and not self destruct, they have shown an ability to compete with the best teams in the nation (at home to oregon, away to Wisconsin, and a respectable win at Washington after the Huskies just knocked off USC.)
- ASU can play the run well and future NFL #1 LB Burfict is an absolute terror when he gets in the backfield...
Net/Net I think 5.5 is the right line and at that level you really are asking a team to win the game who has some glaring weaknesses and question marks against a USC side who I can't honestly say where their heads will be...
As always, good luck Lee...
