Math Futures Ticket Equation Question....

Math Futures Ticket Equation Question.... Suppose you hold a Futures ticket that you have $50 already paid for on the Colts to win the superbowl that pays $750 if they win....($700 profit and your original $50 stake back).... Now today someone offers you $500 cash for the ticket. If you take it is it a good deal or a bad deal???? I'm trying to settle an argument and would appreciate some mathematical reasoning. Thanks in advance if anyone would be willing to elaborate on this. burger

If the Colts were -200 in the Super Bowl then it would not matter, because you could put the $500 on the Colts at -200 and end up with $750. At most books, the Colts are worse than a -200 favorite, so taking the $500 is bad.

Implied odds of Colts winning based upon a NV ML of +/- 200 is ~2/3, so ticket is worth: 750 * (2/3) = 500 It doesn't really matter how much the ticket cost originally, what does matter is the amount the ticket is worth if it wins.

You can bet the same line at Matchbook right now with your $500, so it doesn't matter from an EV perspective. It's a good deal if that $750 represents a significant enough portion of your bankroll that you want to lower your variance (either because you initially overbet the $50, or because your bankroll has dropped since you made the bet.)

take the nickel now and lay a buck eighty on day of superbowl for ~ $778

[QUOTE=sundown;16041]take the nickel now and lay a buck eighty on day of superbowl for ~ $778[/QUOTE] ...this...