MGM parlay card 15%-35% edge ends soon There is a parlay card out now at MGM properties that offers an
approximate 15% to 35% player edge with certain combinations.
It's called PRO PROP CARD TIES LOSE and it's yellow with green typing.
We can discuss the individual entries and why they are the percentages
cited but I'll just give the list here and anyone betting them can mix and
match as they see fit. The play is to bet 3 teamers @ 6 for 1 (+500)
or 4 teamers @ 11 for 1 (+1000). Would limit cards to four per trip to the
window and maybe move from property to property as well.
There are four entries that I estimate are 60% or better plays. A 60% play
equates to a no-vig moneyline of -150. One of those is more like 65% which
equates to a no-vig money line of -200. Will list the worthy entries from the
strongest to the weakest along with hit pcts. The weakest is approx a 52% entry.
Those are filler entries that will allow diversification. Would use two from the
top four list along with one or two of the lower list if trying to submit many cards.
Play 3 or 4 teamers. I have been playing mostly 3 teamers and just diversifying
the cards. Very important that the bet amounts be kept under $100 so the
card does not require approval. This is how you can get volume in on these
without the cards being looked over by a supervisor. This card is valid thru
Wed Jan 29 so it may end Tuesday night or it may end Wednesday night.
PCT / Card# and prop
------------------
65% / #42 Seahawks +13 pass completions
60% / #39 Broncos attempt first pass in the 4th Q
60% / #20 NO Score First 5:30 of game
60% / #10 UN 2 Fumbles Lost by both teams
-these are the best four and used in a 3 or 4 teamer gives a
return in of up to 135% (35% edge)
Filler Entries - Dilutes edge but helps get more volume in:
========
53% / #17 Seahawks Final score an ODD number
53% / #15 Broncos Final score an ODD number
53% / #15 Broncos Final Score an ODD number AND #18 Seahawks Final score an EVEN number
53% / #17 Seahawks Final Score an ODD number AND #16 Broncos Final score an EVEN number
-the pairing of an ODD # with the EVEN # creates an ODD differential. The game to have an ODD
differential is what we are trying to create by pairing these two. An EV by itself is a neg EV play.
The ODDs are a decent filler play. The ODDS by themselves are OK while the EVs are no good.
Would use at least two from the good list if using any ODDs or ODDs+EVENs
Here are the available NO-VIG lines for the 60% props at 5 Dimes. The math from there is pretty
straightforward to calculate the return for any combo used. Will give a card example below.
The first two props have no lines at 5Dimes. These two sort of have to be solved by analysis.
Top Four with 5Dimes NO-VIG lines:
----------------------------------------
#42 Seahawks +13 pass completions: This is basically Peyton -12.5 vs Wilson.
The correct line should be Peyton 26 completions vs Wilson 16.5 completions.
Both of those totals are rising, Wilson a bit more, so the market line is -9.5. Those
three extra completions for Wilson bumps the win pct for the prop up to approx 65%
I think the error they made is using completions. I believe they intended to use
attempts which the market lines are Peyton 40 and Wilson 27, a difference of 13.
#39 Broncos attempt first pass in the 4th Q: This is one where you have to reason it
out to get the return. As cited in the above prop, Peyton line on ATTs is 40 and the
line on Wilson ATTs is 27. That's just about a 3/2 split which is 60% (40/67).
Denver is more likely to be passing in the 4thQ if ahead then Sea will be if they
are ahead. If Sea leads, they run the ball. Den still uses the pass to move the chains.
#20 NO Score in first 5:30 of game: This one is pretty easy and it may get better if
the weather is bad. Right now the No-Vig line is -153 at 5Dimes. That's a pinch above
a 60% play. This one is also slightly correlated to #14 on the card which is More PTS
scored in 2H vs 1H but don't think it's quite strong enough to use. Could be used as
a filler sub for one of the ODD/EVENs below though.
#10 UN 2 Fumbles lost in game: Another easy one to calculate. The no-vig line is
now at -148 on UN 1.5 fumbles lost so UN 2 (ties lose) is just a little below 60%.
If just the top 4 plays are used on a 3 or 4 teamer you get the following approx EVs:
3 teamer: .65 x .60 x .60 = win prob of 23.4% for a BE payout requirement of +327.
Card pays +500 so the EV is approx 34.5% per dollar bet.
4 teamer: .65 x .60 x .60 x .60 = win prob of 14% for a BE payout requirement of +614.
Card pays +1000 so the EV is approx 38.5% per dollar bet.
Working in entries from the ODD/EVEN list dilutes the return but enables the submission
of a more diversified package of cards. If you swap in an ODD for one of the 60% entries
on a 3 teamer you drop the EV down below 25%. The EV drops down below 15% if you
use two of those to make a 4 teamer.
Lots of variance involved here so these could whiff entirely. If you lean on any one
prop heavily, buy back can be used if an outlier number is found to reduce volatility.
Taking YES a score in any time frame of 6 minutes or more at a good price can be used
vs the NO Score in first 5:30. Laying 9.5 comps with Manning is an option vs #42.
Peyton OV 26 comps or Wilson UN 17 comps are decent semi-hedges if a good price is found.
This card goes gets removed in the next 36 hours. When the new cards come out
around town will take a look to see if something new turns up.
