i cited nothing because in most cases, i'd go for it here. but unlike you and most others, i believe that many of the studies (including romer) would be a bit (not much, though) different if qualitative factors were introduced. who knows how many of romers' 700 data points are from situations like this ? also, i don't know the extent to which they deal with "end game" strategies (as opposed to the first 50-55 minutes). i agree with the general premise that a punt here is bad. i'd have brought pat white in and run a pass/run option. having said that, there is more than one possible (desired) outcome after a punt : to get a turnover, maybe even on the punt itself, let alone a fumble or tipped ball on a pass. or block a punt for a td, or run it back for a td. i know, no one, not even a N.O. rb on mnf fumbles just running out the clock (2 minutes, not 6). miami's best two units are their run defense, run offense, and their punter, who has a terrific record of nailing inside the 20 (he did here too--ne 9). i don't think i'm in bad shape if i'm miami with ne inside their 20 and 6 minutes left. the average nfl net punt is 35 or so, so a 3 and out keeps my playbook open in terms of time remaining and downs/distance, since i get the ball back at around the 50. average nfl possession is close to 3 minutes. i think if miami had created a 3 and out (failed !!) which was a greater than 50% probability (to me) they might have made out ok. my whole point in the response is/was that most of the posts regarding coaching/strategic decisions are right on in chiding those who make them, like fg's from the one yard line in the first quarter, etc. it's just that with this team and situation, i do think there is room for disagreement. i disagree with sparano, but i can see where he's coming from---he thought the defense would AT LEAST get a three and out, if not a turnover. ARE YOU ALWAYS RIGHT, WITH NO ALLOWANCE FOR VARIANCE ?
