Middling

Middling This thread was bound to happen. We saw a few seasons where getting on both sides of a game worked out well, especially around the three. Although eight of clubs is winning this year, it's not because games are middling. The money has just unluckily been going on the wrong side. The extra points gained with the buyback have not come into play. Therefore, the 8c concept itself has not been relevant. (That NE/Was game last weekend where the guy had 5/7' was sure awesome for him, though.) So here is the question: Is this an unlucky year in terms of how few games are middling? Or were there just more games middling than usual before?

I know from an NFL perspective it was my best year out of 8 betting last year and it was mostly due to middling. This year hasn't been very good on many fronts. And I know another pro middler here in Reno and the year before last wasn't good and he bets great stuff but he rides the middle and it wasn't good according to him. I rarely focused on middling until last year in football. Regarding the NE/Wash game your only talking one way with the middle there. Certainly valid to have taken greater than 7 as that game moved down. I'm sure +8 or more was available at one time and played a reduced juice -7 and earned a side on that game or played -6.5-120. Even at full juice and leaving a bet on the Skins at the good number a valid play for a maximum bet. This game was a good result. Last year I can name huge middles off the top of my head like my favourite songs. (1) New Orleans/Minnesota right out of the gate. Line was +6 on that Thursday Sept. 2010 game and then Favre signed and line went down to 4.5 maybe even 4. I remember the game was a result of NO winning by 5. Bingo. What a way to start the year. (2) There was a Redskins/Tampa Bay game last year it was an absolute bananza for me. Sharp bettor piled on the Redskins at +3 and drove the line down to 1. Bodog I recall dealt some +3-135 or something like that and I did a 7 pt. teaser and whirled it with a few things that I think won. I had way too much Redskins and played TB back on the moneyline to cover myself. The Redskins flub a tying extra point creating a huge middle when they lose by 1. (3) There was Lions/Bills game where I got an opening +3 on the Lions I think. Line went immediately to 2 and then 1. The game has some strange score and the Lions score a TD with under a minute left and miss a tying 2 pt convert so they lose by 2. Another clear middle. (4) The Broncos/Chargers game last year at the end of the year. The line was Broncos +3.5 and I bet it. Line went up though to 5. And at a few spots you could get 5.5 for a few minutes. I liked the side so I bet it there and bet back -4 or some huge juice -3.5 I can't remember. The Chargers won by 5. (5) The Steelers/Dolphins game was a middle where Roethlisberger had a questionable TD called back I think. The Steelers won by 2 I think. It wasn't really a middle as I think I had +3-120 probably at Harrahs which would be hard to duplicate and Leroy's had some bargain on the moneyline....This was from rogue numbers but it hit with them. I could go on with more. The Jets/Steelers playoff game was a rogue side not a middle. But really rogue. I might have had the only +5 on the game from Reno. NO/Dallas on Thanksgiving I recall opened at 3.5 and if you bought it to 3 on NO you had that and then +6 was available day of game and ended 6 I think. These ones are more difficult for an average bettor to have but it is the type of thing that if you have outs, have reduced juice outs or betting exchanges and play in Nevada and watch your screen middles will add to profits. But it is not a guarantee. Harrahs was the last book I could bet here in Reno that offered the purchase on to the 3 for only 10 cents. They changed that this year. This is devastating for what I do. And when things don't middle...the juice adds up from the losses. Hopefully, you end up on the winning side but if you don't you take your loser and your middle juice that you invested for the middle and you lose more. The best advice I have for any middler is to ultimately make it your goal that you must beat Pinnacle on the back side of the play. This will increase your profit potential. You cannot settle for Pinnacle. If you're going to scalp away your good number Pinnacle or a betting exchange is your best option. But as a middle player you owe yourself to make the best effort to beat Pinnacle. In basketball what it means is a lot of trips to Leroy's, Lucky's and a few offshore books which will deal -8 on a game that Pinnacle is -8.5-104 or -8-114 as an example. The use of a betting exchange is almost mandatory for proper middling strategy. One reason for my long sermon here is that this strategy is just ignored by most bettors here. Oh -11 and +14 who cares? I care. It is a great play especially if one of the plays can be done at reduced juice. At 20 cents juice it is a solid betting play so it only gets better if you can do it. I think at +14 you were doing better than Pinnacle which really closed 13.5 maybe leaning on the favourite but not sure they were +14-110 probably +14-112 not sure. Anyway, when I beat Pinnacle and have a clear good bet like the -11 these are fantastic bets.

Nice response. I appreciate it. Here are a couple more things that have come to mind. If games aren't landing on or near numbers as often, then it could mean, all else being equal, that there is more variance. We know that in Week 1 there were a record number of KR/PR touchdowns. In general are interceptions up as well? (One would think fumble incidence would not change for the same reasons.) More turnovers, more special teams silliness, more scoring — these all can increase variance, which can reduce the percentage of games that middle, because line moves would have to increase at the same ratio, and games just don't move 5-6 points. I hate half-assed analysis, but it's all I've had time for. Does any of this make sense? Another idea is that there are more good and bad teams, and it's harder to handicap NE/Ind within two points for example this year than most years.

I'm probably not capable to answer the question the way you may want it answered. And you're only getting my perspective. I miss plenty of middles that win and plenty that lose. There are always the ones that get away. Many aren't obvious. Yesterday's college game between Ohio and Utah St. was a side. A tough side to get but a side. Ohio +3 was the front side of that move and the clear good bet. And before game time there were some books that went to Ohio -1 and flipped back. That is a tough one to anticipate that type of move when betting the +3. Easy enough to just get out at Utah St. -1 and have a good play. I think the more critical point is that everyone will experience middling differently. I may think games aren't middling this year but someone else might be doing well. How? Just the example above. Bettors who take the lead and get on moves very early just have very wide opportunities to middle if they have bet large amounts and they're correct on the view of the betting market and the timing of the market. Without access to some Nevada books, it is hard to find middles that "fall in your lap". Access to off numbers that are a clear middle opportunity against almost any other book in the world. And having access to betting exchanges, several internet books and Nevada offer the most middle opportunities that one can create. I have done many profitable middles by playing numbers that aren't even much of an advantage bet but when played opposite another number I may have access to at an exchange or another book it is a strong betting situation. There are more opportunities and the spread wider than you might actually think. Each sports book may offer different options regarding point buying (like the Harrahs Reno I mentioned) etc. that can create opportunities. Pro middlers like to focus on basketball I have found at least in Reno. But business is much leaner for them (and me). All of the Nevada books update the front end of any move much more quickly than they did 5 years ago. And being American of course has restricted their ability to use offshore accounts to assist them in their business when they do get a good play. To be more blunt in a few cases it has ended their business. Your question relates to why systematically games may not be middling and the high scoring, INT or whatever may be useful to reflect on but ultimately if one layed 5.5 Even on the Giants today and took 7 on the Redskins and it lands Redskins win by 13 what can you do? The current estimates of the probabilities of these numbers to fall by books like Pinnacle, Matchbook, various books on sports betting, etc. say this is a good investment. And it will say next week it is a good investment. If middlers lose 100 in a row of these the market prices of the numbers may change and a middler will have to readjust what is required to make a profitable play. Right now it is just variance I guess and bad variance and last year was good variance.