MNF Raiders @ Broncos 420 Denver -14.5/49.5 vs Oakland
Pinnacle is now down to -14 -110 which suggests that this game may
settle at 14 by game time. It certainly won't go any lower than that as
the public, who is fresh off cashing with Sea laying the big number, will
not be afraid to take the better team and lay the lumber. BTW, the Seahawks
covering as a fave of 17 or more is only the second time in the last 29 instances
that the fave has cashed as such a heavy favorite. Trend guys are licking their wounds.
1H line is 10 which is a split that is a tad high for a game at this spread.
You would not see a game lined 14 and 1H 10 in NCAA. Given the fact that
Broncos trailed 17-14 in week 1 vs the Ravens and led 10-9 at NYG last week,
this might be the way to look if you must play Oak. In the 2nd H, Denver has
scored 31 and 35 the first two weeks so their 1H/2H split of 24/66 is extreme.
A short sample for sure, but worth noting. If it's close at the half, steer clear of Oak.
Denvers run D has been great so far. Allowing just 2 yds per carry and 40 yards
per game. This is an area that may offer a bet or two. Darren McFadden is off
a big week of gaining 129 yds rushing and another 28 receiving. Perfect set-up
for an UN play on him vs a team they could trail early and be forced into chase
mode. Denver held McFadden to 13 carries for 34 yds and 11 carries for 52 yds
in 2012 so they have held him in check in the recent past. Off the big game I'd
expect to get about as generous a line as possible on him and will be taking UN
as soon as it goes up. The LVH elected not to use McFadden on it's MNF prop
sheet this week so no line available anywhere I can find but I'm prepared to
jump on any line of 70 or more rush yds and bet UN. Real good chance QB Pryor
leads the Raiders in rushing tonight as he did vs Colts. They will also hang a combined
yardage line on McFadden because of his pass catching but I prefer the strictly
rush yd prop. Any matchup vs Knoshown Moreno would also be worth a look.
Again, prefer the strictly rush yds prop and that may be a tough one to find.
In matchup props they often go with the R&R total only.
Receivers on Denver are tough to isolate as all 4 primary guys have 10 or more
receps. If this game gets out of hand then they all could suffer but D Thomas probably
more than the others due to his down the field targeting. Still, not willing to fade
any of them. TE Julius Thomas is a pretty safe bet to grab 5 or 6 balls. He has
played 150 of 150 snaps so far and should be out there every meaningful play.
Peyton turned his TEs into All-Pros in the past and that appears to be what is
happening here as well. Dallas Clark had three straight years of 100+ targets
with Peyton and this guy could surpass those numbers if he stays healthy.
Expecting 6-10 targets a game going forward and 4-8 receps per game. I'd take
him OV 5 for sure. At 5.5 the price would come into play. At 6 I'd probably have to pass.
It helps that S Tyvon Branch is out for Oak. He is their best secondary defender and
usually is on the TE. His replacement will have a hard time with this match-up and
Peyton will probably go right for the weak link early and often. Hoping the line
comes 5 and less than 55 yds receiving. If so, I'll be on a rare OV here with Thomas.
When prop lines go up may add some thoughts on what's available.
