MNF - Steelers @ Bengals

MNF - Steelers @ Bengals Last week Pittsburgh lost their All-Pro center, their lead linebacker and their kick-return man. They are also missing TE Heath Miller. With no RB on roster worth mentioning and minus a Mike Wallace type to stretch the defense they appear to be between a rock and a hard place going into this game. Cincy played decent last week but turnovers and their inability to get to the QB did them in vs Chicago. With Baltimore the only team in the division having a win, this game will put one team in decent shape regardless of how poor their results were in week 1. Bengals teasers (like Eagle teasers) are plentiful and the books need the Steelers to win to wipe those out. Line has moved from 7 to 6.5 so Bengals by less than 7 would be a real disaster for the house. Pinnacle has -6.5 -101 and CRIS has -6. It's 6.5 everywhere else. Will have prop or two to discuss later when they get posted.

The receivers on Cincy have interesting match ups. AJ Green will be covered primarily by Ike Taylor. Last time they matched up AJ was held to 1 rec for 8 yds on 6 targets. I don't think he gets shut down here but an explosion like what he had a week ago 9/162/2 is not too likely either. He's lined at 6.5 and 92.5. The Cincy TEs were 10 for 10 on their targets. Both Gresham and Eifert caught all 5 balls thrown to them. Greshams volume will suffer this year due to the presence of Eifert and was hoping to catch a puffed up number on Jermaine. Think they got it right though as both are lined at 3.5 receps and mid 30s for yardage. Pitt denies the ball well to TEs, ranking 4th last year with 6.2 targets allowed to opposing TEs. Useful for another week but tough call here. Second receiver Mohamed Sanu probably has the best matchup but I think he's the one to go against. He'll get approx 5 targets and he's not a yardage guy, avging 9 yds per catch career. He has never caught for more than 47 yds in a game in his brief career and he had 4 receps for 19 yds last week. They have him pitted vs Emanuel Sanders who had 12 targets last week, 7 receps for 57 yds. He's averaged 13 or more yds per rec each of his first three seasons. That may drop a bit as he looks like the possession type guy this year but he should get targeted a lot tonight. Pitt has little choice but to put the ball in the air and it's going to be between Sanders, Brown and Jericho Cotchery. They literally have no one else. Heath Miller is out and they are short RBs as well. On sheer volume he has to be given a nice edge over Sanu. I took Sanders -15.5 yds vs Sanu. That line is available now at CRIS at -125 and some that clone them. **Just found a line on Sanu. UN 4 -135 and took that. Certainly not easy to find but a decent one if your book has it.

Two things I notice are getting decent action. One is that the Steelers get the first penalty. I can only reason that it is because of the switch at C from Pouncey to a guy they just signed a few days ago. Unfamiliarity at that position can lead to errors. Botched snaps and false starts mostly. Cincy D-line is a huge challenge. The new guy was a starter last year for Tennessee so he's not inexperienced, just new to this unit. My guess is that's the reason for the Steelers penalty bet. It's as high as -150 online but some -115 is still at a few books. Second interesting item is that rookie Bengal RB Giovani Bernard is being given a lot of respect for a guy who has played one game and had 4 carries and 1 reception. He opened at 1.5 receps and 52.5 rush&rec yds and he's getting bet through the roof. Now OV 1.5 -170 and OV 52.5 R&R -160. Someone is banking on him taking a lot of touches from BJGE.

These receiver bets went close enough to expectations but there probably needs to be some adjustments made to my statistics. The steady increase in the pass game (attempts, yards, TDS are all on record paces league-wide) makes taking Unders not as much of a slam dunk as in years past. Twelve QBs threw 40 or more times last week and another four threw 39 times. 64 TDs were thrown in week one, an NFL record. Only 48 this week. Ten teams ran the ball 20 times or less this week. The short pass game has become the substitute in more and more run situations and that is having an effect on some of these props. 17 of Daltons 25 completions last night were for 5 yds or less. Betting a guy under on receps only to get dinked and dunked to death probably means the yardage bet, and not the receps bet, is the better place to look on certain guys. Going to keep careful tabs on targets and pct of targets completed to these receivers and see if that helps find the right bet. AJ Green was targeted 14 times, had 6 receps (lines was 6.5UN) but had a long of 10 yds. Ike Taylor did a great job and gave him nothing over the top, holding him to 40 yds receiving. The TEs for Cincy caught 9 of 14 targets for 132 yds. TEs are another sector that may need some adjusting. These two sure looked like a version of the Gronk/Hernandez pairing that was so hard to defend. Emmanuel Sanders did lead Pitt in targets but many of the passes to him and Cotchery had no chance. 5-10 yds over their heads on blanketed coverage downfield. Todd Haley will catch a lot of heat this week on the play calls and it was frustratiing to watch. With no Heath Miller and RBs that aren't really pass catchers, forcing the ball to the WRs was all they had. As expected, Sanders, Brown and Cotchery got 28 of the 36 targeted passes. Giovani Bernard went OV on yardage and UN on receps so those that went to town on his props split out and lost on the juice, a lot of it if they bet late. He looked real good though and BJGE is going to lose touches, especially in close games. BJGE biggest asset is he does not fumble and he gets two or three when you need two or three. He is not a big play guy. When they have the lead he'll get most of the work. If they trail it's going to be Bernard getting the call. TNF looks like a good one. KC and Andy Reid go to Philly.