Money Talks Final, Fezzik vs. Blankenship, Matchbook should have the game up tomorrow

Then there's the arb (I'm assuming you can't get too much down on this prop).

fair = -117/+116 current market inflated off recent fez public dismantling. 1* blankensihp @ +129

[QUOTE=Fezzik;12286]But we get to run this sucker 7 times!!!!!![/QUOTE] really think this 55-45? much closer to 52-48

Fezzik best bet WASH +3 ???????????????????

[QUOTE=Fezzik;12284]My record in H U, 1 week contests: Stardust Invitational: 7-3 Money Talks: 4-2 (might be 5-2, not 100% sure) Overall: 11-5 And that was vs. Kenny White, TimT, Shrink, etc. [/QUOTE] i'd make you just as big of a fav vs kw n tt as you are vs. blankenship. nothing they've done is terribly impressive. shrink does get good info and was a solid w.

[QUOTE=helmut;12312]Fezzik best bet WASH +3 ???????????????????[/QUOTE] Yes, Was +3 a great BB! Fezzik has become a monster in these contests.

[QUOTE=Fezzik;12284]Run a simulation of a 54% guys vs. a 51% guy......the 54% guy is a solid favorite. People don't understand the power of compounding small edges......[/QUOTE] Could someone please tell me how to do this? I would love to know, but I suck at math -- and at using Excel. Intuition said the +130 (+128 equivalent) at MB was good, but I held off. Thanks.

I think you could do it this way Assume 14 'games'. Assume you have a 54% chance of winning each game, your opponent 51%. SO 7 have a chance of winning of .54 7 have a chance of winning of .49. Lets simplify this and just assume 14 'games' and you have an average chance of winning 51.5% of the time on each 'game'. If there were 1 trial, you would win 51.5%. With 3 trials you would win .515^3+.515^2x.485x3=52.25% of the time. Quick guestimation give a 53% to win a 5 game match, and maybe 54% to win a 8 game match. By the time we get to 14 games, you can see we are going to be well above the 55% level....... A random number generator, 13 trials (to avoid the tie headache) and every number above .515000000 is a 'win' woudld be a good estimate, and we are going to get a number well above 55%....something close to 56% plus I think.......

I remember reading computerbob figuring out the odds on how often a 54% capper should beat a 50% capper in a 7 game sample size when we were talking about this contest years back. The number he came up with was 57.2% of the time so if you think Lance is a shade better than break even % should be even lower.

Don't Understand Your Equation [QUOTE=Fezzik;12346]Assume 14 'games'. Assume you have a 54% chance of winning each game, your opponent 51%. SO 7 have a chance of winning of .54 7 have a chance of winning of .49. Lets simplify this and just assume 14 'games' and you have an average chance of winning 51.5% of the time on each 'game'. If there were 1 trial, you would win 51.5%. With 3 trials you would win .515^3+.515^2x.485x3=52.25% of the time. Quick guestimation give a 53% to win a 5 game match, and maybe 54% to win a 8 game match. By the time we get to 14 games, you can see we are going to be well above the 55% level....... A random number generator, 13 trials (to avoid the tie headache) and every number above .515000000 is a 'win' woudld be a good estimate, and we are going to get a number well above 55%....something close to 56% plus I think.......[/QUOTE] Fez...What does the ^ mean in your equation? Thanks.