Money Talks picks for the week

we need a BIG second half from NO! how dat! how dat! gonna beat dem saints?

i suppose dallas is

great read by adam with dallas would have liked to seen his write up for that game

Dallas game Thank you. Fezzik and i were friendly a few days ago and i offered to come to his site and give some plays. You can go to knbr.com and listen to the archive. I said the Dallas line was the biggest joke in the nfl and broke the game down spot on. Look at every week at Leroy's contests how almost all of the lines moved in my favor. 5 out of 7 last week big time. This week i decided it is more important obviously long term to get the best number but in a one day contest i think you have to go with the best 7 that have a chance to win. When Fresno State was up 11 the whole world thought they may win by 25. They had outscored wyoming 21-3 at one point. They lost. I didn't believe a true freshman for wyoming would be able to exploit the holes in Fresno defense, nor wyoming stop the leading rusher in the ncaa. Last week listen i say the bb was sd. The line was +3 only so i laid off. Didn't want to make the same mistake again.

I'm talking about your releases moving. If you and your customers are betting millions each weekend, and if you are winning, then the line should move in your direction after you release them. In the contests, you clearly should ALWAYS play the sides that have the best chance of winning. HOWEVER, handicappers almost always overestimate their edge in handicapping vs sharp lines (Pinny, Cris, etc). IMO, 53-55% is the very best anyone can do vs sharp, current lines over thousands of bets. The correlated point is that almost all bettors underestimate the efficiency of the current market. Fezzik's domination of the contests, which use stale numbers, is proof that the market is super-efficient. BTW, why didn't you pick Wyoming in your contest vs Fezzik?

Summary for Adam, 7 Selections, 4 good, 3 bad IMO The Good: KC -2 KC OVER 37 Pit -2 DAllas +7 (suspect number,but fading public steam, not sharp money) The Bad: Fresno -11 (gulp best bet!). Line CRASHES down to 10! Ruh Roh. This, despite Adam's VIP clients all betting 25k EACH on this. NE -7. PINNY will let you bet this now -6.5-105. PINNY HNGRY. Feed PINNY. Henry thx you. 206 SMISS-3.5. Why lay -110? TAKE +102 at PINNY. Again, despite all those supposed 25k bets by all those VIPS paying 250k/year to get the valuable info. Adam is selling, somehow the line is heading to 3. Summary of line moves. 3-3-1. Adam can go 1-6, OR 6-1 this week, as Old School says, if he says THIS is his best 7, then he is who we thought he was............

[QUOTE=Fezzik;12719]Adam can go 1-6, OR 6-1 this week, as Old School says, if he says THIS is his best 7, then he is who we thought he was............[/QUOTE] you really have to involve denny green?

I like Green. My favorite color! Want to play some sit and go's in January?

[QUOTE=Fezzik;12724]Want to play some sit and go's in January?[/QUOTE] full ring, HU, six handed, what did u have in mind?

Heh, me too, me too. Poker I can actually play. So this is the Adam I asked about before? I so rarely get to listen to Fitz and Brooks on KNBR, but usually it's at the end of the week if I am caught up with work. When your segment comes on, I have to turn the radio off. I am sure that personal attacks are not allowed on this message board, so I will merely say that your appearance on an otherwise great show frustrates me to no end.