more Fezzik props published elsewhere Time for Fezzik to weigh in. He has lots of thoughts.
1. "I have frantically been buying the Saints plus a half-point in every quarter. The Saints' cornerbacks were hurt towards the end of the year and struggled. Now they're healthy and I am out of my mind to be thinking they won't be bringing much more defensive intensity. I bought a lot of the Colts first half and money line early in the week, but I've been looking for Saints the past few days because of Freeney."
2. "The longest field goal under 43.5 is really good. These teams don't try long field goals. They know they need touchdowns to win their games. Also, generally games listed with high totals have lots of touchdowns and few field goals."
3. "The Saints to have more rushing yards than the Colts. This one feels kind of obvious. But the Colts can't run the ball."
4. "Reggie Bush's total receiving yards, if you can get it in the mid- to high 20s. I wouldn't go over that. But he seems to be healthier than he's been and I expect him to get a lot of touches."
5. "Drew Brees to win the MVP at plus-300. This is a needle-in-the-haystack bet. It's a clever way to bet the Saints money line and get 3-1 instead of the plus-185 that is being offered. Because I can't see any way they win the Super Bowl and he doesn't win the MVP. So if you bet this, you are basically betting on the Saints to win it all."
6. "Generally, don't bet the plus money on props. The moves in the odds on props are from the public and it tends to bet on the underdog, so the value is usually on the minus-money. If you interview the average dum-dum, he will bet the matchstick to win the lumber yard, meaning he'd like to bet a little to win a lot, even if the better value is on the other side. So the minus is usually the better price."
