[QUOTE=theduke;16625]Does anybody know what the fair price for (No Overtime) is in the super bowl?[/QUOTE]
That depends on how you model it. Since the 2000-2001 season, a little more than 1 in 20 regular season games go to OT. In the same time frame, a little less than 1 in 10 playoff games have gone to OT. There has never been a Superbowl OT.
A really thorough analysis would look at the relationship between closing point spreads and the likelihood of going to OT, but I'd suggest it's somewhere in the 1 in 10 to 14 range. If someone thinks it's outside of these bounds, I'd be curious as to their reasoning. Clearly in forty-whatever years, we've had fewer Superbowl OTs than we expect. Under no circumstances can I imagine a rational person saying that we should have expected fewer than 2 or 3 of these games to have gone to OT by now.
IMHO, if you're paying -1000 to -1200 for "no OT", you might have the best of it, but your equity is so slim that I can't justify taking this risk. If you're getting +800, I think you're getting ripped off. That's my opinion.
