MTi's Week Eight Sweetheart Teaser [B]New England +7’, Pittsburgh +14, Indianapolis +7’, Green Bay over 30
[/B]
Here are some of the teaser specific trends we used to make these plays.
The Patriots are 41-0 ATSp13 (19.9 ppg) when they won and covered their last two games.
The Steelers are 28-0 ATSp13 (15.3 ppg) when the line is within 3 of pick on the road versus any team with fewer wins.
The Colts are 32-0 ATSp13 (16.1 ppg) when facing a team that has averaged less than 1.25 turnovers per game season-to-date.
The Packers are 34-0 OUm13 on the road when their opponent is on a 2+ game winning streak and 32-0 OUm13 as a road dog when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is fewer than 30.
Yes, the Steelers line move from +1 to +14 is not ideal. However, it is not as important to land off of a key number when playing 13-point teasers, because the line is being moved so far from the peak of the distribution. There have been 202 games in the NFL since 1989 in which there was a one-point favorite. They lost by exactly 14 points only 4 times. They lost by 1-13 points 70 times. These are the games we are scooping with the line move. Of course, the Steelers' line move is not as efficient as that of the Patriots' and the Colts, but this will often be the case when you play a 4-team teaser.
Prof M.
