MUST-Win Games in Week 2? A good handicapper tossed out this piece of info yesterday and thought
it made some sense. Starting 0-2 in the NFL makes your chances of
making the playoffs 12% or so. 0-1 teams playing 1-0 teams went 9-1
SU last 10 games (which almost always means they also went 9-2 last 11).
I checked it out and as expected it was a handpicked cut off point.
These 0-1 teams did win 9 of the last 10 and then things flattened out.
Going back further you get 7-7 dating back to 2010 so 9-1 last 10 but 16-8
overall for 67% last 3 seasons overall. Still, the premise seemed reasonable.
Interested in this subset so here's the list for this year of 0-1 vs 1-0 teams.
Atlanta -6.5 vs St Louis
TBay +3.5 vs New Orleans
Minn +6 @ Chicago
Arizona +1.5 vs Detroit
San Diego +7.5 @ Philly
Of those five, Atl, TBay, Min, Az and SD, there's one fave and four
dogs ranging from +1.5 to +8. Three home teams, two road teams.
San Diego +7.5 is in a pretty bad spot having to go to Philly this week on short
rest vs that 30 minutes of hell 1st half offense. (Philly has a short week as well).
The overwhelming opinion I've heard so far is bettors looking for a way to
get on these Eagles. Whether laying the 7.5 or teasing them down, expect
a high pct of tickets written to be on Philly and the line to rise. Don't think the
Chargers consider themselves a playoff caliber team so all the positive energy is
with the Eagles here. Off that demoralizing loss vs Hou, SD may be in trouble.
Minny at +6 looked pretty inept on offense last week. After that 78 yd
TD run by AP, he gained 15 yards on his remaining 17 carries. Ponder
threw three INTS in the game and Min was out first downed 28-17.
Still, laying close to a TD with Bears would be tough. Going down 0-2
within the division really will be crippler for Vikes. Minn or pass here.
Arizona +1.5 is interesting, mostly as a teaser play IMO. Detroit
does not have much of a track record winning by big margins on
the road. They've won by 10 or more pts just once out of their last
39 road games. This includes some pretty lean years where any
win was tough to come by. These Lions certainly don't resemble
those editions but being a fave in the desert is optimistic. They lost
here 38-10 last year to a pretty disinterested Cardinal team who
were on a 9 game losing streak. New coach, new QB, new RB and
a decent showing last week makes one think this is a good spot
in their first home game. Detroit never has been much of a road
performer. This 0-1 Arizona team looks like a good teaser candidate
at the very least. If it gets to +3 then the points become a play.
TBay +3.5 vs Saints has a lot going for it. Tbay lost a game they
could have easily won and NewOrl won a game they could have easily
lost. TBay has good receivers, a good RB and an inconsistent QB.
They should be able to make things happen vs Saints D that is
off the worst statistical season by a defense in NFL history. They
did just enough (along with the help of a dropped pass) to get the
win last week in what was a jacked up atmosphere at home.
Expect a back to reality performance this week on the road and
TBay to pile up some yards and put some points up. Rob Ryan is
certainly no Dick Lebeau yet he still gets credit for being a top DC
based on the family name and not his results. Don't drink the Kool-Aid.
Saints D is not good and this looks like a good take at +3.5 or more.
Atlanta -6.5 vs St Louis. Atlanta really needs this win but they are real
rough around the edges at this point. Roddy White is very limited with
an ankle issue. The new Off line is still trying to gel and vs this Rams
def line that can be a real problem. Falcons play next week @ Miami
and then get New Eng @ home. Neither of those games will be walks in
the park so this game is pretty big for them. St Louis goes to Dallas
next week and then go home to face SFran. A tough schedule for sure
but the urgency is with the Falcons here. At close to a TD can't lay it
with a team that went 0-4 in preseason going against a young and
improving dome team that's as well-coached as these Rams. Pass.
