My favorite double bet of the week.

[QUOTE=Rumpelstiltskin;3454]I would like to book this bet. I'll give you 3 to 1 odds.[/QUOTE] I made the bet because it's going to be really hard to lose both. Getting 3:1 puts this right at a true coinflip for winning both (once again, assuming the lines are correct.) Am I a genius, idiot, or confusing? (or all 3)

"Except in this scenario, the odds of losing both are 1-2%, since we would need a final score of 49-0, 48-0, and 49-2 or some other whack result to lose both." To win both, you would also need a whack result which is the point.

Two teams putting up more than 53 total points is a whack result?

You are a square, unfortunately. I try to help, but it doesn't work.

[QUOTE=Yappy Dave;3478]Two teams putting up more than 53 total points is a whack result?[/QUOTE] It would be if USC failed to cover the 46. If it goes over 53, SC very likely covered or an easier more intuitive way to think about is if USC covers the 46, the game almost certainly went over. Vice versa, if the game goes under, USC very likely didn't cover. They are extremely anti correlated. I would give you 3.2 to 1 on your bet as a parlay.

I do not think he is talking about a parlay. Quite simply, assuming the odds are right, the chance of over is 50%. The chance of team A covering is 50%. Now if we say the over/under goes under, clearly the team getting 43 points is more likely to cover. If it goes over, the team giving 43 points is more likely to cover. It's tough to win by 43 points and stay under 53. Does this make sense? I would estimate your chance of losing both the over and the +43 is well less than 20%. Probably less than 15%. To make it an easier example. Think about a hockey game. Say the total is 5.5 and the spread is team A +1.5 Possible under scores are: A:B 0-1 0-2 0-3 0-4 0-5 1-0 1-2 1-3 1-4 2-0 2-1 2-3 3-2 3-1 3-0 4-0 4-1 All other scores go over 5.5 Looking at the unders, if 50% of the games go under 5.5, team A covers 11/17 times because it is correlated. This is the best I can do here and I'm only posting this since virtually anywhere you want money these days dont take these. Sean

I'm not trying to parlay, and I got +46 (not +43). I know I'm a square, but that's why I'm here. I'm trying to learn. Are you guys saying it's really that hard to score on USC's defense? One TD by WSU and I scoop or lose the juice. I know how bad WSU is (and I'm on under 3 wins for them.) I'm still waiting to read a rationale that makes sense. Sure, I get that points and under would be a better play, but I'm not making the bet to try to win each one, but moreso looking at a double bet that offers a much higher chance of winning both than losing both. The juice is only worth 5% of the bet and the likelyhood of getting scooped is ~2%. To me, this just means I have to scoop 8% or more of the time to come out ahead. If I've done something wrong, I want you to tell me; math, logic, etc? I'm a pretty tough guy and can take the truth.

[QUOTE=Yappy Dave;3534]One TD by WSU and I scoop or lose the juice.[/QUOTE] No TD's by WSU and you either lose both or lose juice. Which scenario is more likely?

I guess I can just be happy I got both lines at or near their peak.