NBA Expected Wins Numbers

NBA Expected Wins Numbers This is what I came up with. Basically, this is a mathematical model that gives a number, and is then tweaked and twirked with factors that aren't reflected in your basic stats like how certains players will fit on certain teams (ei. lack of depth like Denver, one-man bands like Miami, and other shit, etc...) Some numbers, like Miami and Denver may look funny. Miami and Denver may end up missing by 15 games, but I'm not looking for the mean, I'm looking for the median. Dwayne Wade may have played out of his mind for 79 games last year, but if he even misses 10 games this season, Miami is not going to hit their number. Wade's out-Miami loses, it's just that simple. Denver is totally dependent on Chauncy Billups to win 50 games, and even if he does his thing, they still may not get there, but they also may win 55. But everything has to go right for them to hit 50 or so. Career years and lack of injuries got them over the hump last year. They got to roll a 7 to do it again, IMO. I don't want to make bets where everything has to go right to cover, I want to make bets where even if a couple of things go the other way, I still can cover. Teams looking up: Atl, Orl, Chi, Was., Por (at a reasonable number), Utah, and San Antonio (age and injury issues though, so I'd be careful with SA). Teams in shambles: Mil, NJ, Hou, GS, Sac, Mem Not only are these teams bad, they will be looking to unload anything with a price tag on it if it helps them avoid the luxury tax for next year. Also, any mediocre team that hits the skids will be unloading any players that will keep them from paying the luxury tax next year. I'll have a hard time taking the under on Cle, Orl, and LA, as they are in an arms race, and they seem to be all-in on this one. No way I'm gonna take an over on Boston as something tells me they'll be running on fumes before the end of the season. NBA Team --WINS --LOSSES Boston -- 56.8- 22.2 New Jersey-- 23.3- 58.7 New York-- 34.3- 47.7 Philadelphia-- 34.3- 47.7 Toronto -- 33.8- 48.2 Chicago -- 42.7- 39.3 Cleveland-- 68.0- 14.0 Detroit -- 34.5- 47.5 Indiana -- 32.1- 49.9 Milwaukee-- 27.1- 54.9 Atlanta -- 52.5- 29.5 Charlotte-- 32.6- 49.4 Miami -- 38.6- 43.4 Orlando -- 62.9- 19.1 Washington-- 35.7- 46.3 Dallas -- 49.7- 32.3 Houston -- 32.1- 49.9 Memphis -- 27.2- 54.8 New Orleans-- 46.2- 35.8 San Antonio-- 56.5- 25.5 Denver --43.2- 38.8 Minnesota-- 35.6- 46.4 Oklahoma City-- 32.0- 50.0 Portland-- 58.7- 23.3 Utah -- 52.4- 29.6 Golden State-- 30.1- 51.9 L.A. Clippers-- 31.9- 50.1 L.A. Lakers-- 60.8- 21.2 Phoenix -- 41.6- 40.4 Sacramento-- 25.1- 56.9

GREAT JOB putting up the 1st numbers I think we have seen on this stuff! GIMME Cavs UN 68 for the limit..... This would be the eqivalent of a 13.5 for an NFL team ov/un.

[QUOTE=Fezzik;4792]GIMME Cavs UN 68 for the limit..... This would be the eqivalent of a 13.5 for an NFL team ov/un.[/QUOTE] Yeah, the Cavs are loaded, adding some nice parts, but everything, I mean everything will have to go right to win 69 or more. That's too many wins to bet over on, I agree. With average luck (not too many injuries, and their fair share of last second shots, 65 might be more in line, but a couple of factors have me concerned. The model gave me a 67.1. One of the reasons I'm leaning toward a higher number on the Cavs, besides them being loaded and motivated is the luxury tax issue in the NBA this year. Some of the bad teams in the league are going to be really, really bad, and some of the mediocre teams that don't pan out will be dumping salary before the trade deadline most likely. The luxury tax, per David Stern is expected to be reduced by 5-10% in 2010 (the cap is related to BRI, which is basketball related incone, which is down,thanks to a bad economy), and this caught a lot of front offices off-guard. They had signed a lot of players to multiyear contracts expecting the luxury tax threshold to be around $68 million next year, and now they are being told by Stern to expect the budget on that to be around $63 million. Teams get taxed (penalized) $1 for every dollar they go over the tax threshold, and all the penalty money is evenly distributed among the teams that stay under the threshold. The majority of teams will be over in 2010 as it stands right now, and many teams that thought they would be under that will not, or will have several million less to spend on free agents next year. This tax money can add up to $10 or $20 million for a team, which is a lot if you plan on chasing big money players like LeBron, Joe Johnson or Dwayne Wade next year, or if your team is in Charlotte, New Jersey or Minnesota you may need to save money and help your team stay profitable, or in a decent position businesswise. The tax issue is why Nate Robinson and David Lee, desirable players, got no love on the market this year and had to resign with the Knicks at the last minute. This scenario is repeating itself and will all over the league for the next year. At least half the league is salary dumping right now. In short, bad and disappointing teams will get even worse, very likely as the year goes on, making things easier for the better teams.

The Cavs will be a better team later in the year and in the playoffs but I doubt they win more than 60 games actually. Alot of new bodies to mesh and some problems with Delonte West. And they'll never go 39-2 at home again.

NBA Expected Wins Adjustment 1 As players get injured, come back from injuries, & teams develop, I'm gonna change some of the expected wins on certain teams before the lines come out. I'll try to give out my opinions on certain lines and teams after the lines come out and I get a chance at the number. In a nutshell, the Lakers look to be way ahead of the curve as far as cohesiveness on the court goes, so they get an upgrade. I'm predicting a 19-2 start for the Lakers. Boston gets an upgrade based on intensity, and Orlando gets a slight upgrade based on focus. I downgraded Atlanta slightly based on more numbers with some incoming players I looked at. The Knicks are looking worse by the minute right now. Eddy Curry came into camp so out of shape they won't even let him practice after hurting himself the first two times he hit the floor. NBA Team --WINS --LOSSES Boston -- 59.8- 22.2 New Jersey-- 24.3- 57.7 New York-- 30.3- 51.7 Philadelphia-- 34.3- 47.7 Toronto -- 34.8- 47.2 Chicago -- 42.7- 39.3 Cleveland-- 66.5- 15.5 Detroit -- 35.5- 46.5 Indiana -- 32.1- 49.9 Milwaukee-- 24.1- 57.9 Atlanta -- 50.5- 31.5 Charlotte-- 30.6- 51.4 Miami -- 38.6- 43.4 Orlando -- 63.9- 18.1 Washington-- 35.7- 46.3 Dallas -- 49.7- 32.3 Houston -- 32.1- 49.9 Memphis -- 27.2- 54.8 New Orleans-- 46.2- 35.8 San Antonio-- 56.5- 25.5 Denver --44.7- 37.3 Minnesota-- 34.1- 47.9 Oklahoma City-- 32.0- 50.0 Portland-- 58.7- 23.3 Utah -- 52.4- 29.6 Golden State-- 30.1- 51.9 L.A. Clippers-- 31.9- 50.1 L.A. Lakers-- 64.8- 17.2 Phoenix -- 41.6- 40.4 Sacramento-- 25.1- 56.9

good shit here. I agree with your opposing assesment of Atlanta and Houston.

NBA Wins- 8 Plays Found lines up at the Hilton. If you want to grade these, make the first 8 a full unit, and the small plays half units. The first plays are the ones where everything (IMO) is pointing (at the moment) in that direction. Working the model in with my perception of reality is a work-in-progress, so forgive me for not betting directly with my numbers vs. the betting numbers. Here's what I took that's worth posting: Bigger Plays: Charlotte U 36.5 -110 Cleveland O 61.0 -110 Denver U 52.5 -110 LA Lakers O 62.0 -110 Minn O 25.5 -110 Orl O 57.5 -110 Portland O 52.5 -110 NJ U 28.5 -110 Smaller plays: Atl O 44.5 Det U 42.0 Golden State U 35.5 Phil U 40.5 Tor U 41.5 Wash U 42.5

Hilton Lines As of 10/09 Here's the Hilton lines as of Friday: All -110. NBA Team Boston -- 56.5 New Jersey-- 28.5 New York-- 31.5 Philadelphia-- 40.5 Toronto -- 41.5 Chicago -- 40.5 Cleveland-- 62.0 Detroit -- 41.5 Indiana -- 34.5 Milwaukee-- 25.5 Atlanta -- 44.5 Charlotte-- 36.5 Miami -- 40.5 Orlando -- 57.5 Washington-- 42.5 Dallas -- 48.5 Houston -- 35.5 Memphis -- 27.5 New Orleans-- 46.5 San Antonio-- 54.5 Denver --52.5 Minnesota-- 25.5 Oklahoma City-- 35.5 Portland-- 52.5 Utah -- 49.5 Golden State-- 35.5 L.A. Clippers-- 35.5 L.A. Lakers-- 62.0 Phoenix -- 41.5 Sacramento-- 24.5

[QUOTE=Climate;5137]Found lines up at the Hilton. If you want to grade these, make the first 8 a full unit, and the small plays half units. The first plays are the ones where everything (IMO) is pointing (at the moment) in that direction. Working the model in with my perception of reality is a work-in-progress, so forgive me for not betting directly with my numbers vs. the betting numbers. Here's what I took that's worth posting: Bigger Plays: Charlotte U 36.5 -110 Cleveland O 61.0 -110 Denver U 52.5 -110 LA Lakers O 62.0 -110 Minn O 25.5 -110 Orl O 57.5 -110 Portland O 52.5 -110 NJ U 28.5 -110 Smaller plays: Atl O 44.5 Det U 42.0 Golden State U 35.5 Phil U 40.5 Tor U 41.5 Wash U 42.5[/QUOTE] Agree on Portland and Denver big time. The only bigger play I disagree with is Charlotte. I think this team is better with Chandler in the middle rather than Okafor. Larry Brown has his type of players now. Like a lot of your smaller plays as well.

[QUOTE=Climate;5137]Found lines up at the Hilton. If you want to grade these, make the first 8 a full unit, and the small plays half units. The first plays are the ones where everything (IMO) is pointing (at the moment) in that direction. Working the model in with my perception of reality is a work-in-progress, so forgive me for not betting directly with my numbers vs. the betting numbers. Here's what I took that's worth posting: Bigger Plays: Charlotte U 36.5 -110 Cleveland O 61.0 -110 Denver U 52.5 -110 LA Lakers O 62.0 -110 Minn O 25.5 -110 Orl O 57.5 -110 Portland O 52.5 -110 NJ U 28.5 -110 Smaller plays: Atl O 44.5 Det U 42.0 Golden State U 35.5 Phil U 40.5 Tor U 41.5 Wash U 42.5[/QUOTE] Add LA Clippers U 35.5 +115 That's what it is now after betting it. Blake Griffin out 6 weeks. 1 full unit. This makes up for the Minnesota Twolves injuries hurting my over on wins pick. If you want to hammer this, be a little careful at the greek, as they changed the odds on one unrelated play after the fact, stating the infamous, "bad line" excuse.