NBA Expected Wins Numbers

[QUOTE=Climate;5137]Found lines up at the Hilton. If you want to grade these, make the first 8 a full unit, and the small plays half units. The first plays are the ones where everything (IMO) is pointing (at the moment) in that direction. Working the model in with my perception of reality is a work-in-progress, so forgive me for not betting directly with my numbers vs. the betting numbers. Here's what I took that's worth posting: Bigger Plays: Charlotte U 36.5 -110 Cleveland O 61.0 -110 Denver U 52.5 -110 LA Lakers O 62.0 -110 Minn O 25.5 -110 Orl O 57.5 -110 Portland O 52.5 -110 NJ U 28.5 -110 Smaller plays: Atl O 44.5 Det U 42.0 Golden State U 35.5 Phil U 40.5 Tor U 41.5 Wash U 42.5[/QUOTE] Where are we at after 20+- games. Projected wins: Bigger Plays: Charlotte 34.5 Cleveland 61.5 Denver 62.5 LA Lakers 69.0 Minn 12.5 Orl 65.6 Portland 48.5 NJ 4.0 LA Clippers Smaller plays: Atl 57.4 Det 32.8 Golden State 24.5 Phil 24.5 Tor 33.5 Wash 30.2 Too bad season doesn't end today.

Massey estimates that the cavs have 42.27 wins remaining.

[QUOTE=mofome;11714]Massey estimates that the cavs have 42.27 wins remaining.[/QUOTE] Unfortunately, so do I. At least I did before the season started.

[QUOTE=Climate;11720]Unfortunately, so do I. At least I did before the season started.[/QUOTE] Do you use Massey at all? I like his work. Then kenpom for college hoops. Hope you've had a great start to your week.

[QUOTE=Climate;5137]Found lines up at the Hilton. If you want to grade these, make the first 8 a full unit, and the small plays half units. The first plays are the ones where everything (IMO) is pointing (at the moment) in that direction. Working the model in with my perception of reality is a work-in-progress, so forgive me for not betting directly with my numbers vs. the betting numbers. Here's what I took that's worth posting: Bigger Plays: Charlotte U 36.5 -110 Cleveland O 61.0 -110 Denver U 52.5 -110 LA Lakers O 62.0 -110 Minn O 25.5 -110 Orl O 57.5 -110 Portland O 52.5 -110 NJ U 28.5 -110 LA Clippers U 35.5 +115 Smaller plays: Atl O 44.5 Det U 42.0 Golden State U 35.5 Phil U 40.5 Tor U 41.5 Wash U 42.5[/QUOTE] Looks like this is going to go 9-5-1 if the Cavs lose tomorrow at Atlanta. All plays were -110 except for the Clippers. The bigger plays didn't do as well as the smaller ones, but I did make a pretty decent profit. If I learned one thing, it's NBA scheduling is a great equalizer, let me tell you. I think the waterboy is going to suit up for the Cavaliers tomorrow (half the team seems to be out vs. Atlanta @ Atlanta), and Lebron will be doing Michael Jackson at halftime.