NBA/NHL Totals for Wednesday

NBA/NHL Totals for Wednesday I am going to combine the NHL/NBA Thread starting today for ease of use for me and for you. All totals are now 7-2 posted here and I do want to let you know that I do bet a lot of them, not just what I decided to post here. I am trying to put the very best here and contribute to forum as much as I can while I am here this month. I have models for all sports and if a contest fall within my guidelines it is red flagged for a further look. These Totals are both objective and subjective, taking into account for injuries, special situations, and other factors that can contribute to achieving the goal of a game going Over or Under. By far College Hoops totals are the easiest to beat and I am hoping that the books are going to be generous this year with releasing lines. Until then, we have NBA and NHL. I have nothing right now and the NBA is still shaking out lines and I am enjoying a nice breakfast of French Toast and Bacon. Yum. I will be back when I spot something noteworthy.

One of the very few times I bet hockey,,, Was on your total last nightDucks-Pens and I was very happy I did. Nice work here B P!:)

I do know before someone tells me that Unders this year in the NBA have been hitting at an alarming rate. I also know that one of those was last night in the Pacers/Nuggets game. I also know that Murphy may not play tonight for Indiana due to a back problem. But is Murphy's absense going to help or hurt our cause? Probably help with the Pacers Pace probably even higher than we are usually accustomed to. Last night this team could not hit shit, but they tried 91 times to do so. Are they going to shoot better than 36% tonight against this Knicks team? Yep. I was hoping for a better number here but the number we have is just not that bad. Averaging 57 per quarter for these two teams on the court at the same time is very probable. We can look at the last two games the Knicks have played here in the Big Apple, vs Philly and NO and see what happens here with 2 very high scoring affairs. We can also look at the Total Line with NO/Mavs at 189 tonight to see what oddsmakers think will happen there. The Knicks make you run. The Pacers make you run. How simplistic is this play? My NBA Model only goes to 225 and this one is at the Max. Tired Indiana Legs gives us an Edge and I could easily see +235 or higher scored in this one. [U]#509/510 Pacers/Knicks Over 225.5[/U]

[QUOTE=BigPappa;8336]I do know before someone tells me that Unders this year in the NBA have been hitting at an alarming rate. I also know that one of those was last night in the Pacers/Nuggets game. I also know that Murphy may not play tonight for Indiana due to a back problem. But is Murphy's absense going to help or hurt our cause? Probably help with the Pacers Pace probably even higher than we are usually accustomed to. Last night this team could not hit shit, but they tried 91 times to do so. Are they going to shoot better than 36% tonight against this Knicks team? Yep. I was hoping for a better number here but the number we have is just not that bad. Averaging 57 per quarter for these two teams on the court at the same time is very probable. We can look at the last two games the Knicks have played here in the Big Apple, vs Philly and NO and see what happens here with 2 very high scoring affairs. We can also look at the Total Line with NO/Mavs at 189 tonight to see what oddsmakers think will happen there. The Knicks make you run. The Pacers make you run. How simplistic is this play? My NBA Model only goes to 225 and this one is at the Max. Tired Indiana Legs gives us an Edge and I could easily see +235 or higher scored in this one. [U]#509/510 Pacers/Knicks Over 226.5[/U][/QUOTE] Line is dropping 225. That is good for the people that follow. I suspect Miami/Phoenix will drop as well. Thanks

I just got 224.5 myself.

[QUOTE=BigPappa;8338]I just got 224.5 myself.[/QUOTE] Nice work. Might as well wait BP on this one. High total might drop move then we Pounce. Keep up the work and it is very appreciated. THANKS!

Murphy with doubtful status gave us that down hit I am pretty sure. I don't think we will see any further action on the down side but predicting NBA Total movement has never been one of my strong suits.

Phoenix/Orlando is dropping as expected. I got some higher but wish I got more.

I don't love the 5.5 and -130 line here so I am going to split my wagers and get 1/2 at Under 5 and +140, effectively giving me a risk of -115 and a potential gain of +120. How in the hell are these two teams going to net 5 goals here. The Avs Goalie owns a 2.11 GAA and Coyote Goalie Bryzgalov is probably the hottest Goalie in the NHL with a GAA of just 1.78. Our edge here is a Phoenix team that plays very good D but did not last time out at LA. They will be very focused for this one. If history has it's way this will be a long nite for the home team as they have scored 1 goal or less in 3 of the 4 meetings between the two teams. I have this one handicapped at 4.10 and good enough for me to make this split wager. [U]#11/12 Coyotes/Avalanche Under 5.5 -130 #11/12 Coyotes/Avalanche Under 5 +140[/U]

Nice writeup BP. Makes sense. Even got a better line than -130. Thanks for the plays!