NCAAF wagers & question

NCAAF wagers & question While I have experienced some success over the years in sports wagering the one thing I still have trouble with is picking the best number at the apex. I like the following teams the 1st week in NCAAF, my question to those with a better sense of timing is should I bet these now or wait? Most of these (except #183) have moved in my favor. #127 S. Carolina +4 #130 UTAH -20' #136 BALL ST -17' #183 Idaho +3

I jumped on Utah -20, Idaho (when it was +4.5 weeks ago, as suggested by Fezzik), AND Ball St. -17. The most questionable of the 3 was Ball State, but the team knows how to win and is facing a bottom 5 team.

Maybe wait and see if Ball St gets to 17 or less. I took No Tex +21.

Predicted CLOSING numbers NC ST -4.4 Ball ST -15.5 UTAH -19.5 Idaho +2.5 .......don't shoot the messenger. Mike Lee 'returning starters' theory has been so good for so long, money will POUR in on the N Tex Dodge Balls. As for this Utah, hard to find a 13-0 team that will have a worse year than these frauds in 09 (apology to all Youths out there). NC ST is a public team after winning 6 in a row as dogs. The band wagon is on them.

Just locked in ... #127 S. Carolina +4' (as predicted by Fez) #183 Idaho +3 Still waiting: #130 UTAH -20' #136 BALL ST -17'(now down to 16') Thanks for all the responses.

[QUOTE=Fezzik;1196]NC ST -4.4 Ball ST -15.5 UTAH -19.5 Idaho +2.5 .......don't shoot the messenger. Mike Lee 'returning starters' theory has been so good for so long, money will POUR in on the N Tex Dodge Balls. As for this Utah, hard to find a 13-0 team that will have a worse year than these frauds in 09 (apology to all Youths out there). NC ST is a public team after winning 6 in a row as dogs. The band wagon is on them.[/QUOTE] Fezz, what sort of methodology do you use when getting numbers at the apex? More specifically, what percentage of the time are you right? Do you generally wait close to game time if you're going against a public favorite, i.e. the Cowboys, Lakers, USC, etc? And if you bet a favorite, do you just hop on them at the open? I guess my main question is: Do you hop on games in anticipation of what the sharp community will do or what JoePublic will be hopping on? Thanks again.

I think the Okie St-Georgia game is a good example. You think Georgia is the better team. I'm assuming the majority of other sharps also believe this. Yet, you waited for this line to pop to 6 from its open at 3 (I think it was 3.). Whose money were you waiting on coming in for this one before you jump on it?

[QUOTE=Yappy Dave;1192]I jumped on Utah -20, Idaho (when it was +4.5 weeks ago, as suggested by Fezzik), AND Ball St. -17. The most questionable of the 3 was Ball State, but the team knows how to win and is facing a bottom 5 team.[/QUOTE] Just my opinion/handicapping on the North Texas/Ball St tilt: I'm not following the "team knows how to win" stuff at all as a reason for backing Ball St. Seems kind of fluffy to me. Laying 17 you are up against it in week 1 imo. New coaching staff, new QB, 1 returning starter on the oline. Very inexperienced across the board as a team. Last year was their year and they ended it with back to back losses against the two best teams they played (buffalo and tulsa) and these were not "good" losses.