NE PATS UNDER 11.5 wins +100, 1 weight

theres been rumors of them trading for feeley....

Hate to go against Fez, but... ...I can't cannot find 5 losses for this team! I picked up the full season point spreads from M Resort and the Pats are favored in [U]every[/U] game this year. They are favored by more than a touchdown in 10/16 games. They are favored by a field goal or more in 15/16 games. Even if they lose 2 games as a favorite of 8 or more, they still have to lose half of their remaining games to cash the UNDER 11.5: -10.5 vs. Bills -5.5 at Jets -9.5 vs. Falcons -9 vs. Ravens -10 at Broncos -8.5 vs. Titans -9.5 at Bucs BYE -9.5 vs. Dolphins -1 at Colts -9.5 vs. Jets -3 at Saints -4.5 at Dolphins -8 vs. Panthers -4.5 at Bills -9.5 vs. Jaguars -4 at Texans I'm not saying it can't happen, I just don't think it's a very good bet. Sam

Just my opinion but these "future W/L" wagers can be "sucker bets". The big W lines, such as the Pats 12 O/U, the only play is to go UNDER 12 Wins. It is so hard to win ONE game in the NFL - and last year those who bet the UNDER won, and let's face it - the Pat's D will be the Achille's Heel this year. Belichick is outright gambling by only keeping 2 QB's, trading Seymour, and patchworking the secondary. Belichick is trying to get younger on D and the jury is still out on OLB A. Thomas, who may not have fully recovered from his injuries last year. Belichick is gambling some more by going to the 4-3 D instead of the 3-4 that stifled the Steelers in that AFC showdown a few years ago. The 4-3 sounds like that the "pass rush" is on, but that might be working NEXT year. Losing Seymour THIS YEAR and moving to the 4-3 almost looks like a desperate gamble by Coach B. After watching clips of the pre-season, I see that Seymour did not put 100% in chasing WAS QB Campbell when he had a clear shot at him. This may have pushed Coach B. into this "deal" with the Raiders re: Seymour/1st draft pick later. I DO expect the Pats to win a lot of games. I can see them winning the AFC East, but to win 12 games is a lofty expectation. They won 11 last year. But the teams in it's own Division have improved, especially BUF w/ TO. Like him or not, TO gives BUF a scoring threat on every play TO lines up. I can see the Pats splitting games w/ MIA, NYJ, and possibly BUF. BUF has not beaten the Pats in a few years, but they did come close in a few of those. Close this year could equate the split. If my memory serves me well, BUF pasted NE 38-0 Week 1 a few years ago, then NE pounded out 11 wins in a row, something like that. Remember, the BUF, MIA, NYJ are RIVALRIES and those games are a tad different then the rest for reasons for another post another day. Bottom line, I have NE winning 10 games, and that is counting on Brady all year. If Brady is not the Brady of old OR goes down, no Cassel to back up - NE will be hard-pressed to win 7 games, depending on when Brady goes down. Hope this makes sense. Iron Man/Subby

Using the lines from the M and the SU win percentage of teams with those lines (broken down into categories of 0-3, 3.5-7, 7.5-10 and over 10), I have NE with 11.53 victories. Too close to call, however, a 12 starts to bring value to the under and they are just an injury away from that being a win.

The loss of Seymour isn't going to help an already unexperienced defense.

It's not just "if Brady goes down." What if Moss goes down? The Patriots then become just another ok kind of offense without the Defenses of 01,03 & 04. Patriots have a lot riding on two players.

[QUOTE=grux;2005]The loss of Seymour isn't going to help an already unexperienced defense.[/QUOTE] He only cost them 3.5 mil this year. If they wanted him to shore up the inexperience, they would have kept him. He was moved because he was expendable.

[QUOTE=red30;2043]He only cost them 3.5 mil this year. If they wanted him to shore up the inexperience, they would have kept him. He was moved because he was expendable.[/QUOTE] IMO, it is to early to tell if he was expendable. We shall see how the rookie defensive lineman did this year. The pats had no chance of signing him and grabed a 1st round pick before he left town. I don't think the Pats are better team without him.

Too close to call. Obviously NE is not better w/o Seymour. As this is a contract year for him, he should play well (if he shows up). Buff is better, Miami and NYJ will test NE but I see 4-2 in division @ worst. Their road slate is not difficult, only Indy and NO will be losses. @ home Balt & Tenn biggest tests out of division. Looks like 12-4.

I clicked on this thinking (hoping, praying, maybe) that 'slick' was the old 'slicks' from LVA. Maybe he's still doing time, but isn't Arnie letting most convicts out??