Need Advice on a Hedge Bet I need the Board's advice on a hedge bet I'm thinking about making. Here's my situation:
I bet $400 on Clemson Under 8 Season Wins at Even money. They're 8-3 going into their last game as a 3 point favorite against South Carolina with a Money Line of -155.
If Clemson beats South Carolina I lose $400. If South Carolina wins, I push the Season Wins bet.
I'm thinking about betting $258 on the Money Line on Clemson.
That way, if Clemson wins the game, I've reduced my loss from $400 to $142.
If South Carolina wins, then I'll still lose the same $400 I would have lost if Clemson had won since I'll push my Season Wins bet on Clemson but lose $400 on the Clemson Money Line bet.
Seems to me this Money Line hedge makes sense, since I'll be effective turning a 3 point favorite into an Even money bet since all Clemson has to do to win the Money Line Bet is win the game and not cover the 3 point spread.
Obviously, there's no +EV since the best I can do is reduce my loss from $400 to a loss of $142. And I still lose $400 if South Carolina "upsets" Clemson even though that would push my Season Wins bet on Clemson.
I would appreciate any thoughts the Board might have about this.? Thanks!